Looking forward and projecting the future

I know, I know, the playoffs are still in view. The Spurs won an exciting first game against the 2nd seeded Cinderella story of the Denver Nuggets. However, I think barring some miraculous sort of Finals run this year, there are some very real questions that the Spurs have to answer about their roster. It's probably not too early to start looking forward, though there is a lot of time in the offseason, I also do want to give a proper look at Pop and his stint these next two years with USA basketball. While I don't think that I have any concrete answers, I think it does help a little to air out some of the issues that we have. Personally, I don't think it's a chemistry issue as much as a roster construction issue. I don't think the issues in this iteration of the Spurs is intentional, but the way the season has played out, we find that there are indeed a number of question marks that we have going into the next season. And honestly, I'd much rather write about this than how the national media hates the Spurs (maybe I'm crazy, but it sure sounds like they're always rooting for the other team on national calls, I'm looking at you, Hubie).

Unfettered Optimism: Truly the Start of a new Era

It's hard to look last season's drama with Kawhi Leonard subsequently concluding with his being traded with Danny Green to Toronto for DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, and  a protected 2019 pick as having any sort of positive. I mean, you just lost a legitimate two-way star that was a two-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year and finals MVP, not to mention close runner up for MVP when he was healthy and playing. The loss of arguably one of the premier perimeter defenders in Danny Green as well is a tough pill to swallow, but given the situation, changes were necessary. Despite being one of the premier defensive squads in the league (1st in opponents points allowed per game at 99.8 and 3rd in overall defensive rating of 104.8) they were dismal on the other end (27th in points per game at 102.7, 17th overall offensive rating at 107.9). While the common belief was that the return of Kawhi Leonard as our number 1 option would solve much of our offensive woes, it became painfully clear that outside of LaMarcus Aldridge we had no effective go-to third option, no way of generating offense when we needed it. We got open shots, but we can't hit them, and frankly, we had trouble creating offense.

The Big Question for the Spurs in 2017

With the summer winding down and the start of the NBA 2017-2018 regular season fast approaching, we find the Spurs in something of an interesting holding pattern. Fairly or unfairly so, LaMarcus Aldridge in a Spurs uniform has been considered a general disappointment, especially after his general disappearance in the playoffs following the season ending ankle injury to Kawhi Leonard. As summer progressed it became rumored that Aldridge and the Spurs were unhappy with one another, even going as far as having the Spurs reportedly offering Aldridge for a 1st round draft pick. Since the draft, nothing really league shaking has happened. The Spurs made two savvy draft picks with the 29th and 59th picks in the 2017 NBA Draft in Derrick White and Jaron Blossomgame.  The Spurs quietly signed Rudy Gay and re-signed Patty Mills, Manu Ginobili, and Pau Gasol. With the injury to Tony Parker leaving him out until 2018, one of the big questions for the Spurs is the development of 2nd year point guard Dejounte Murray, who performed admirably during the playoffs after Parker ruptured his quadriceps tendon in the 2nd round against the Rockets.

Unfettered Optimism: Summer Signings

I believe that Spurs have made most of the moves that they're going to make. If we assume that the imminent signings of Manu Ginobili and Pau Gasol then most of the signings are pretty much complete, at least as far as I can see in terms of the main players on the roster. Granted, there might be a few more signings or people that surprise during training camp. Here's where I see the roster as the season begins:

PG - Patty Mills, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Tony Parker
SG - Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Brandon Paul
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Kyle Anderson
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge, Davis Bertans
C - Pau Gasol, Joffrey Lauvergne

Officially, Bryn Forbes (who has been lighting up the Summer League) and 2nd round pick Jaron Blossomgame have not yet signed contracts with the team, but to be honest, I've never been 100% convinced about Bryn Forbes. He has the ability to be a Roger Mason or Gary Neal type player at best and frankly Patty Mills works out better. I also am not sure what exactly will happen with Adam Hanga joining at least training camp, hopefully he'll pan out slightly better than Livio Jean-Charles.

Reacting to summer trades so far...

Summer is here and that means all the speculation, trades, and reshuffling the NBA goes through during the summer. The draft has occurred and I'll put out a post regarding my thoughts on the Spurs' draft picks, though there's not much to say, they made smart picks with their typical late 1st round and 2nd round picks. However, this post will be about the two major trades that have happened so far. Granted, every team is still trying to see if they can land Paul George and/or Gordon Hayward.

Looking at Positional Needs: Assessing Wing Depth

Looking at the Spurs this off-season there are a lot of needs to be addressed. I'm hoping to put out a series of posts that detail some of the options we have at each position this off-season. However, before we get there, we have to understand the situation that the Spurs have on their hands. That means a quick (and casual) look at the Spurs' salary cap situation.

From a cursory glance, we can surmise that the salary cap for next season will be $101 million, which is the important number for us. Another slightly less important number is the $121 million luxury tax threshold. (Note: salary figures provided by HoopsHype). I'm not going to get into the cap holds for players on the Spurs' roster entering free agency, but will simply illustrate the best case scenario here. Let's also not forget that many are already looking towards the 2018 free agent class which includes both Paul George and LeBron James.
Let's assume Manu retires and all players with options opt out. This means that the Spurs will have about $72 million in salary wrapped up. Sounds good right? However, if we look at the roster under that assumption:

PG - Tony Parker, Dejounte Murray
SG - Danny Green, Bryn Forbes
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge, Davis Bertans
C

While we're technically still paying for Livio Jean-Charles, I don't know that he's coming back to the roster anytime soon.

As reference, let's look at all of the Spurs' draft-and-stash players they have available to them: Adam Hanga (SG/SF), Nemanja Dangubic (SG), Nikola Milutinov (C). We'll discuss them as their position comes up.

Looking at Positonal Needs: Manning the Point

So as we approach the end of the NBA season, with the possibility of the Cavaliers commemorating 10 years since LeBron James's first Finals appearance with another sweep, some would argue that the NBA postseason has been somewhat anti-climatic. The teams that were supposed to win generally won, there never was any real question of an upset. Looming on the Spurs' radar though, outside of the general well-being of Kawhi Leonard's ankle, is the off-season, a time of relative uncertainty, especially if the Spurs expect to be big players, a role that they have generally avoided during the Tim Duncan era. The lone exception was the courtship and signing of LaMarcus Aldridge two seasons ago.

The Beginning of the Post-Duncan Big Three Era: Looking Forward to the Kawhi-Era Spurs

With one season down, albeit, finished rather anti-climatically, ending with an unfortunate and fairly scary injury to Tony Parker (ruptured quadriceps tendon) and a poorly executed Zaza Pachulia close-out, after watching the game and seeing how Pop treated Kawhi after the sprain in Game 5 of the Rockets series I would surmise that Pop was just kind of riding however far the team could go in the playoffs because fairly, the Spurs didn't have much shot without Tony Parker and even less of one without Kawhi Leonard. This was quickly demonstrated by a convincing four game sweep of the Spurs out of the Western Conference Finals by the dominant Golden State Warriors. While many Spurs fans will point to the fact that this was something of a rebuilding year for the Spurs, which is crazy, considering it was just another ho-hum 50 win year for Gregg Popovich, but let's be honest, there is some merit to that. There were 7 new players on the roster (Pau Gasol, David Lee, Dewayne Dedmon, Davis Bertans, Dejounte Murray, Bryn Forbes, and Joel Anthony), but most importantly, Tim Duncan, a fixture since the 1997-1998 season was no longer on the roster.

Unfettered Optimism: New faces and young guns

Tim Duncan retired. It's kind of the end of an era for the Spurs. Strange to say it, but essentially the Spurs are sort of officially in a rebuild phase. Yes, we still have Tony and Manu (albeit on the last legs of their careers), yes we did sign Pau (also last legs), but Timmy was the cornerstone for the franchise for arguably his entire 19 year career. Yet this is what makes the Spurs amazing. For most NBA teams the word "rebuilding" means that you're bottom feeding in the standings, looking for that lottery pick that will change your fortunes (e.g. the 76ers). It's interesting to note, that no team with a top five pick has jumped from lottery to the playoffs since 2003, no rookie has had that sort of impact since Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade (not gonna count Darko even though he technically won a championship his rookie year, because frankly, Larry Brown hated playing rookies). Currently, as stars of the early 2000s (e.g. Duncan, Kobe Bryant, and Dirk Nowitzki, sorry but Kevin Garnett hasn't really been super relevant for the better part of the last decade) begin to fade into the sunset most teams are either rebuilding (e.g. the Lakers now that Kobe is gone) or anticipating a rebuild (e.g. the Mavericks once Dirk is gone). That's what happens when you lose a pillar of the team.

Looking forward for the Spurs

Tim Duncan has retired.

It feels like I should probably do a post entirely on that subject. He's been the cornerstone to this Spurs franchise for the past 19 years and a fixture in the NBA for what seems like an eternity. He will always be remembered as one of the classiest and most professional players to ever suit up. That, and possibly the greatest power forward of all time.

That being said, it's time for the Spurs to continue moving on into the 2016-2017 NBA season. This offseason saw a bunch of players getting paid (I see you Boban) due to the spike in the salary cap. The Spurs have opted to re-sign Manu Ginobili at a one year $14 million contract. While this seems high, I think it's appropriate to consider it "back pay" for all the team friendly pay-cuts he took in his prime. Furthermore, Spurs have added veteran center Pau Gasol; Davis Bertans, a 6-10 Latvian sharpshooter acquired in the Kawhi Leonard - George Hill trade; Dejounte Murray, a 6-5 super athletic point guard the Spurs drafted out of Washington late in the first round; Ryan Arcidiacono, a 6-3 point guard that was a key part of the Villanova NCAA championship team; Dewayne Dedmon, a defensive-minded 7 footer who has been around the league; and Bryn Forbes, a 6-3 sharpshooter out of Michigan State.

Spurs Still Looking Strong

Coming off of a convincing 2014 NBA Championship, it's really hard to think of how the Spurs could get significantly better. With most of the big free agent names accounted for, and the Spurs not being a landing spot for any of them, free agency for San Antonio fans essentially boils down to who make the Spurs' much speculated but typically irrelevant 15th roster spot.

Changing it up with more of the same?

I recall there was someone pretty smart that once said:

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." 

So when the Spurs front office decided to bring back essentially the exact same roster that lost four in a row to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Semifinals, I had to ask the question: are R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich insane? Now people can talk about coaching mistakes that perhaps Popovich made (i.e. pulling Matt Bonner and Danny Green for missing shots and thus destroying their confidence) or how Scotty Brooks figured it out (i.e. keeping Thabo Sefolosha in during crunch time instead of Derek Fisher) or some combination of the two and how awesome Kevin Durant is. The fact is, we lost, pretty embarrassingly so.

I'm not going to go into depth about how we fell apart, how we couldn't create offense, how our defense wasn't good enough, and how we missed a ton of shots. Popovich was in a precarious situation, on one hand he needed his role players to grow up, but on the other hand, his role players couldn't buy a bucket to save their lives. Was Pop right to bench Danny Green and Matt Bonner through the second half of the series? I think it's up in the air, but here's what we know, through the first 4 games of the series Danny Green was 4 for 21 from beyond the arc, that's 19%, that's worse than Baron Davis, and Green is supposed to be the sort of defensive three point specialist. That's when Pop pulled the plug. Bonner, also a three point specialist went 1 for 7 from beyond the arc in three games before Pop pulled the plug. 1 for 7, that's 14.29%. Sure, this is Danny Green's first playoff, sure, he didn't have training camp to get used to it, maybe he got the jitters, Matt Bonner's been consistently disappearing from the playoffs for the past 3-4 years, so... yeah, something's not working here.

That being said, I like many Spurs fans, were looking for some kind of improved production from our front court, some sort of improvement. Names like Marcus Camby, Elton Brand, Chris Kaman all passed the lips, keyboards, and screens of many of the Spurs' faithful. Yet the front office, completely unfazed by last year, kept it familiarly quiet as they normally do. They re-signed Boris Diaw, Danny Green, and Patty Mills, then brought Nando De Colo over from France, while also quietly probing for trade interest in DeJuan Blair and James Anderson and seeing just how offensively mature Kawhi Leonard is. So our roster now looks something like this:

PG - Tony Parker, Patty Mills, Nando De Colo
SG - Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Gary Neal
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Jackson
PF - Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner
C - Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter

The above listed are just the people I think will break the rotation. Technically I believe Cory Joseph, James Anderson, and DeJuan Blair are still technically on the roster, though I'm actually a little iffy on Gary Neal's status as well.

That being said, all the players of questionable status will likely not majorly impact the rotation significantly. While we had that amazing streak at the end of the season, we lost it abruptly and at probably the worst possible moment. OKC is legitimately a good team, Durant, Westbrook, and Harden are that good and difficult to play against. Once we started stumbling, we picked a really hard team to attempt to recover against.

Now, do we still have roster issues, I think maybe, but perhaps with a full year of development and growth from Kawhi Leonard, coupled with a full season of understood expectations from Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw, we may be able to mitigate some of the shortcomings we ran into during the playoffs last season.

Do I think that we could use another big man? Certainly, but he has to be the right one, and that's hard to find. What made the Twin Towers of yore so deadly was not merely that their offensive games meshed or that they both were elite rebounders and shot blockers, but actually the simple concept of how active and mobile both Tim Duncan and David Robinson were for players of their size. Duncan in his advanced years certainly doesn't have the same amount of mobility, but the issue has always been finding him a partner after Robinson's retirement that would pair with him as effectively. In 2005 and 2007 Duncan was good enough to make up the difference moving from a player like David Robinson to the likes of Rasho Nesterovich, Nazr Mohammed, Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson, and Robert Horry, and since then has been asked to do the same for the likes of Antonio McDyess, Matt Bonner, Kurt Thomas, and Drew Gooden, something that's unfair to Tim Duncan.

When Tiago Splitter decided to make the leap into the NBA, we thought perhaps we had found the second iteration of the Twin Towers, someone (optimistically) for Duncan to pass the torch to or someone (realistically) to hold the fort until the next franchise big man emerged. Yet that hasn't been the case. It hasn't been that Splitter has played poorly, on the contrary, after recovering from his rookie year injury, he's matured greatly in his second season, adjusting well to the game that he's been asked to play. The fact that we don't have the effective frontcourt we as Spurs fans are used to speaks not of the deficiencies of players like Tiago Splitter but to the singularity of talents that are Tim Duncan and David Robinson.

That being said, what do we do about our frontcourt, what are we looking for? The biggest knock people have on our big men is that outside of Duncan no one is a really good rebounder or shot blocker. Frankly, no one has needed to be, because Duncan has been that good. Honestly though, it's true, the best rebounder after Duncan is DeJuan Blair, whose defense and offensive game make it difficult for him to mesh with the rotation, the next being Kawhi Leonard, who is not a big man. Bonner is asked to do little other than stay in front of his man and hit open threes, and neither Splitter nor Diaw are elite rebounders either. Yet, it's not as simple as finding a big body that can grab boards (i.e. Chris Kaman). The biggest issue that the Spurs run into is a matter of the offensive flow.

Here's what I mean, if Tiago Splitter is going to be a large part of the rotation, you want to put him somewhere where he will be offensively successful. Unless (until) he develops a jumper, that is going to be in the area around the rim. This is the largest issue you run into when you have Splitter and Duncan on the floor at the same time, because Duncan is also most effective around the rim. Granted Duncan does have a mid-range jumper that needs to be respected, but the only player that can punish opposing defenses in the post is going to be Tim Duncan. That being said, the Duncan/Splitter pairing is going to be limited, but they both are a valuable part of the rotation. So the issue then becomes, who is able to play next to both Duncan and Splitter. When you have a player next to Duncan like David Robinson, it's easy, you just need to find someone to fill the space and the minutes (like Malik Rose), however, Splitter, while good, is no David Robinson, and Duncan, while still very good, is coming on 10 years since he last played with Robinson. This is why Boris Diaw is such a good fit, and why Bonner still gets playing time, because their spots on offense don't overlap as greatly with either Splitter's or Duncan's. The issue of a big man for the Spurs simply boils down to this, if we like Splitter's game, which we do, who can we find that can play with both him and Duncan, the most effective route to take is to effectively make Duncan a C and finding an effective PF, which frankly we've been doing since 2003 by playing Malik Rose and Robert Horry for extended minutes. Unfortunately, what that also means is the player we get likely won't be a major shotblocker, and if he's outside of the paint a lot, probably will be out of position to be a good rebounder. Hopefully Kawhi Leonard can make up for some of that, but at the end of the day, I think the Spurs did the best they could with what they have.

That being said do I think the Spurs are done in their quest for a championship? Well, I'm not counting them out, certainly it will be tough, and many people wonder, and rightfully so, whether or not the Spurs have answered the questions raised by the OKC matchup. The answer is, I'm not sure. After the first 20 game blowout in Game 3 in the OKC meltdown, Games 4, 5, and 6 were lost by margins of 6, 5, and 8. There were a lot of reasons for missed shots, chippy OKC play, hard closeouts, good defense. I'm just going to say, if Danny Green and Matt Bonner had simply made a third, a below league average 33%, of their three pointers, that would've been 15 points. I know it doesn't work like that, but I'm just saying.

I'm looking forward to how things come together next year. Hey, it's odd.

A Fresh Look at Kawhi Leonard

I'm probably super late in posting this but a friend of mine pointed me towards a good look at what a number of rookies may look like in the NBA, or at least, what the rookie/sophomore game would look like if we are fortunate enough to get an All-Star Game this year.

This is a link to the Jimmer's All-Star game which was hosted in BYU. The two teams were comprised of various draftees, including several first and second round picks. One team was captained of course by BYU star Jimmer Freddette, the other by the Spurs' own first round pick, Kawhi Leonard. It was a good chance to see the skills that Leonard would bring to the table and I liked a lot of what I saw. Leonard finished with 24 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal, and no turnovers on 8-17 shooting for the night. Leonard's team also did come out with a very convincing victory.

Leonard definitely was a factor defensively, but what was very impressive was his offensive game. He showed a couple of pretty good dribble-drive moves, not afraid of drawing contact, having a smooth finish at the rim. Under pressure, Leonard does show a bit of a tendency to revert to his old, ugly jump-shooting form, and rush his shot, but I'm sure that's something Engelland can deal with.What I was particularly impressed with, was his ball-handling skills, which the commentators continually pointed out being something he worked on significantly in the last couple of seasons. The team often ran him as a point-forward, even with guards like Kemba Walker and Isaiah Thomas on the team. In particular, the commentators pointed out Leonard's ability to feed the post and see the different passing angles. While I don't expect him to take over much of that job from Manu Ginobili or Tony Parker, it certainly eases my concerns regarding a backup point guard.

The future looks bright to me. Seeing Leonard in action makes me hope that this lockout ends all the more.

Unfettered Optimism: Can Duncan pass the baton to Splitter?

If you haven't seen it already, definitely take the time to check out this awesome video footage of the training session Dwight Howard got with the legendary Hakeem Olajuwon.  It's actually pretty scary to see how well Dwight was hitting some of those shots.  But that's not what I'm here to talk about.  After watching that video I got inspired to look up some YouTube of another great big man of that era, legendary in his own right, of course, who else could I be talking about other than our very own David Robinson.  Now I can go on and on about how awesome the 1998-1999 Spurs were, but that's not what I'm here about either.  After a dismal 1996-1997 season where Robinson was injured, and landing Tim Duncan in the draft, the big story in the 1999 Finals run for the Spurs was about Robinson deferring to Duncan, passing the proverbial torch so to speak.  While the 2007 Finals have the onus of leadership passing to Tony Parker, I still believe that a strong team will be rooted and anchored around a big man.  I don't know that Splitter will become the dominant player that Duncan and Robinson were in their primes, but I also think he can definitely grow into something special for the Spurs.  I know we're definitely in a "win-now" mode, but nonetheless, we also need to think long-term.  Certainly we've conceded that we've moved beyond "put role players around Duncan" front office strategy, so who is up and coming?  Well, our primary options are DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter.  Andrew McNeil has a really good post about Blair and the waning of Duncan's dominance.  I'm going to go the route of Tiago Splitter.

Splitter is 25, certainly older than most typical rookies, but with that we can also note that he's been playing international ball since he was 18, so he's in some senses a 7 year veteran.  Now I know we typically do per 36, but since DraftExpress uses per 40s, I'm going to do that too, for the sake of simplicity.  While Splitter's NBA experience is nil coming into the league at age 25, a lot of his fundamentals will really help and I believe carry over to the NBA.  Pop has already said that he's got work to do offensively, in that he's not somebody that they'll just dump the ball to in the paint and expect something to happen.  At this point, most comparisons have been of a glorified Fabricio Oberto, DraftExpress itself says that he won't become any better than P.J. Brown.  His pace-adjusted per 40 numbers are promising from his last season with Caja Laboral, showing 22.5 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks on 58.3% shooting.  While I understand that almost nobody plays 40 minutes on Pop's team during the regular season, it's promising to see that he has that potential, and if he can improve on that with work from Duncan, then I have really high hopes.  To give you a rough comparison, Duncan himself had a pace adjusted per 40 of 23 points, 13 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.9 blocks on 52.2% shooting.  So certainly we are somewhat leery since Splitter is obviously not the rebounder and shot blocker that Tim Duncan is or was (Duncan's highest per 40 metrics rating at 13.8 rebounds in 2007-2008 and 3.2 blocks in 2004-2005), but we have room to grow.  The fact that he appears to have quicker hands and comes up with the steal more often is also quite nice too.

One quick comparable specimen I think I can draw from is Marc Gasol.  In his last season in Europe on Girona, he averaged 16.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.8 blocks on 65.3% shooting.  His per 40 metrics showed 19.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.2 blocks on 65.3% shooting.  While Splitter only averaged 15.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.8 blocks on 58.3% shooting, the per 40 metrics compare favorably.  That being said, Gasol averaged 11.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks on 53% shooting in his NBA rookie year, improving to 14.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.6 assists on 58.1% shooting the next year.  I particularly like this analog because in his second year Gasol played next to a rediscovered Zach Randolph, who likely took a of the looks in the paint.  Will Gasol (and thereby by comparison Splitter) ever realize his per 40 potential?  Probably not, and Splitter likely won't become the shot blocker that Gasol is.  Nonetheless, he can be a huge difference maker.  As first he gets used to the NBA, but more than that, hopefully as Duncan takes him under his wings and shows him some of the things that have made him so successful, so far as to be called "the closest thing to a guaranteed 2 points" when in the paint. 

With Splitter's basketball IQ and some of Duncan's post know-how, I certainly think he can break his projected ceiling of P.J. Brown (even at his best).  So the question remains, can Splitter polish his overall game and become someone for Duncan to pass the proverbial baton that he got from Robinson.  Certainly, I don't think it's necessarily the same exact baton, as the team leader baton I think is being passed to the likes of Tony Parker, but certainly, the whole defensive/low-post anchor I'd like to see passed to Splitter.  I've said this before and I'll say it again; Duncan needs to become to one of our young bigs what David Robinson was to him.  I think Splitter is that young big.  I wouldn't mind if Blair was that young big too though.  I mean, seriously:

Let's take this "random" comparison

Player A is 6-6 at 252 lbs while Player B is 6-7 at 265 lbs

Their per 36 stats compare thus:

Player	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Player A	2347	6.5	12.0	.545	0.0	0.1	.167	4.5	6.1	.733	4.1	6.7	10.8	2.4	1.5	1.2	3.2	4.6	17.6
Player B	1494	6.6	11.9	.556	0.0	0.0	.000	2.1	3.9	.547	4.8	7.9	12.7	1.6	1.2	0.9	2.7	5.4	15.4

I'm sure many of you have already guessed where I'm going with this...  Player B is none other than our own DeJuan Blair.  Player A is Hall of Famer Charles Barkley in his rookie year.  This wasn't going to be a Blair post, but I had to throw this in here.  I like the comparison.  Barkley is obviously better, but hey, room to grow, it's not as far off as I thought it would be.  ACLs or no I can't help but get excited about this.  Splitter and Blair could be our frontcourt of the future.  I like it.  So while we're chasing that ring, I know we are, I hope that Tim takes the time to really mentor these young guys, he doesn't have to invite them over to his house, but he really does have so much to offer, and hopefully Blair and Splitter really can really soak in everything that this living legend has to offer.

Richard Jefferson 2.0

Who is Richard Jefferson really?  And how does he fit in the offense?  I might not be the first to say that I'm not sure Richard Jefferson fits very well.  Nonetheless, he's here, for just shy of $40 million over 4 years.  Yikes.  Wait, he's 30?  I thought we were going younger.  Yikes.  Or maybe not quite so yikes.  Last year the Bucks unloaded Richard Jefferson for Kurt Thomas, Bruce Bowen, and Fabricio Oberto, of the three, they only kept Thomas, waiving Bruce Bowen (who pretty much retired) and Fabricio Oberto (who went on to a mediocre season on the Wizards).  Essentially, Jefferson was to be a Bruce Bowen upgrade/replacement.  Perhaps not quite as refined or established defensively, but someone definitely more athletic and more dynamic on the offensive end.  Unfortunately, what we will dub as year 1 of the Richard Jefferson experiment failed with rather dismal results.  Jefferson averaged 12.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists with less than a steal and block per game on 46.7% shooting and 31.6% from beyond the arc.  So how can he fit into the team?  Can he?

Sebastian Pruiti has convinced me that he can.  Jefferson has always been a player known for his explosiveness, much of his successful career in New Jersey may be attributed to playing with Jason Kidd in his prime years, but a lot of people have noted that he is something of a Vince Carter clone, less some of the IQ.  As age catches up to everyone, including Jefferson (who is now 30) it takes away a lot of the athleticism that players once boasted in their mid-20s.  The Tim Duncan we saw run the floors in 1999 now has shaky knees and has a hard time getting lift.  The Manu Ginobili of 2003 is now wiser, but also more fragile.  Likewise, Jefferson, who once had great athleticism, needs to adapt his game.  He has never been known as a wily player, and certainly we're not expecting him to suddenly become a crafty ball-handler in the like of Stephen Jackson.  However, Jefferson and the Spurs need to come to an agreement on how he can work with the rest of the Spurs.

With the addition of Tiago Splitter, I can definitely see Pop going into a lot of his older sets, now that there is something of a legitimate post presence next to Duncan once again.  Depending on Splitter's mid-range game, Pop may go to the low-post/high-post game that Pop used to run with Duncan and Robinson.  Generally speaking, when that happened, the remaining three players (Avery Johnson, Sean Elliot, and Mario Elie) would generally spot up around the perimeter for kickouts.  Times are changing though, the three players probably out there now are Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Richard Jefferson.  The kickout option becomes less attractive as Parker and Jefferson aren't spectacular spot up shooters.  They're serviceable, but spot up threes are not really their game.  I don't know a lot about basketball plays, but I would surmise that off-ball screens and cuts would probably be the most effective.  While we like Timmy in the low post, I know that he is an highly underrated passing big-man, and running him as a passer out of the high-post (a la Chris Webber) could be a very effective means of getting Jefferson involved in the offense.  Not to say we have to run this all the time, but it's plays like these that I think Jefferson can definitely work with.  That being said, Jefferson needs to get his head in the game and keep alert for opportunities.  Last season he had a tendency to get lost in the offense, hopefully, that doesn't happen as much this year.

Moving on...

So as the hubbub of the 2010 free agency continues to swirl, and we continue to hear about how every other semi-legitimate player is taking a massive pay cut to play with the Miami trifect of Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh, such names including Udonis Haslem, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Mike Miller.  No, the Spurs haven't really had much happen in the free agency, that is not much if you're not a Spurs fan.  Finally, the long awaited signing of Tiago Splitter did occur just the other day though.  So what does this mean for the future?  Well, Splitter is supposed to be the difference maker.  He is that big man that can defend next to Duncan.  This is no knock on DeJuan Blair or Antonio McDyess, but those extra inches make leaps and bounds of differences.  The nice thing I hear is that the Splitter deal is actually somewhat below the MLE, so that does leave us some room to sign some players (about $2.37M of room according to 48MoH).  With Richard Jefferson opting out and only $2.37M of MLE left to use, who then should we sign?  Well, a good place to start is looking at what we have under contract:

PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Manu Ginobili, Malik Hairston
SF -
PF - Tim Duncan, Matt Bonner, Antonio McDyess, DeJuan Blair
C - Tiago Splitter

So the glaring, obvious hole is in the SF spot, or more generally speaking, the wings.  I haven't seen or herad enough of Malik Hairston's play to say anything for or against him.  I'm also presuming now, that one of those wing spots will go to rookie James Anderson, who was drafted at number 20.  If draft reports are to be believed, Anderson is potentially starting quality material.  That's 10 players, leaving us $2.37M of MLE plus any veteran's minimum contracts to sign 3-5 more players.  So who's available?  Well I don't really know that I want Richard Jefferson back, though a sign-and-trade is potentially an option now that all the major big-name free agents have been gobbled up.  I'd rather have Josh Howard to be frank, but he's in the probably-too-expensive-for-our-budget category.  So who can be had at let's say $2M (roughly) or at veteran's minimum (aprrox $1.14M?)?

Here are some names I think are fairly viable:

Sasha Pavlovic

He's not great, some would say he's not even that good.  He can shoot the three, was something of a defensive specialist when he was on Cleveland and has bounced around a bit, did an admirable job guarding Vince Carter during the 2007 New Jersey-Cleveland series, and showed spurts of good play in the Finals sweep that same season.  Note, he was on the team that got swept, by us, yeah.  I mean, we like to pick up old vets from rival teams we played against before anyways right?  Mario Elie (from Houston), Robert Horry (from L.A. Lakers), Richard Jefferson (from the Bucks but originally from New Jersey), Antonio McDyess (from Detroit). 

Damien Wilkins

I know a little bit about Wilkins because I was in Seattle right before the Sonics were stolen.  Wilkins is known to be a decent defender and shoots the three moderately well.  He fizzled out halfway through a career-season as a starting SG on the Sonics, but I don't think he'll be called upon to play too many minutes on the Spurs.  I think he might be something of a Keith Bogans upgrade, and I know to some of you that's probably not saying a whole lot.

Joey Graham

The Graham brothers have probably been as big a bust as any out there in the NBA.  Nonetheless, he has the tools to be a decent defender, maybe Pop can motivate him.  He did have a decent season last year in Denver.

Rodney Carney

Another one of those athletic players who never realized their potential.  It's a matter of motivation.  There are a lot of these guys out there for good reason.

Joe Alexander

See above.

Matt Barnes

Barnes worked his butt off for Orlando as a stop plug defender last season.  With the possibility of his return dwindling, can we steal him away?  I think he's one of those intense hustle guys we can always use in the realm of Mario Elie.

Jarvis Hayes

Essentially he's a poor man's Bruce Bowen.  Probably not as proficient defensively, but a fairly reliable spot up shooter.

James Singleton

He intrigues me, I don't know much about him except he's a hustle defense kind of guy, worth taking a look at.

This is a fairly basic list of the guys I think we might want to consider.  From what I read about our draft pick, James Anderson, he's supposed to be something of a steal like Marcus Thornton previously, touted to be the most efficient player with the highest usage, we'll see how that translates, but having a Marcus Thronton-like scoring ability isn't bad.  If that efficiency translates, I'm happy.  So $2.37M plus a couple of veteran's minimum contracts for 3-5 players, I think we got a decent shot, let's hope it works this year.  It is odd.

The 2010 Free Agency: 10 difference makers at MLE

Here's the deal, it's the 2010 free agency, and as much as I'd love to add LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and/or Chris Bosh to the roster, frankly Spurs don't really have much in terms of cap room available.  I understand that there are more roster needs, but these are some names that I'm willing to spend a good chunk of the MLE on.  Generally speaking, I think we need bigs to play next to Timmy, so these 10 are those bigs I think we can make a run at in the FA.

1.) Brendan Haywood

Haywood is a starting caliber center, an above average defender, with a decent back-to-the-basket game.  He's a legit 7-footer who can fit well next to Duncan.  He probably doesn't have a great mid-range game to compliment Timmy's post game, but then, he's probably a step up from Nazr Mohammed.  Seriously.  I like Haywood here, but he could be pricey.

2.) Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Besides his age, Big Z is actually a fairly ideal player to play next to Timmy.  He's a decent mid-range catch-and-shoot face up shooter, for a big man, he's also a decent defender.  He's obviously not the most ideal candidate, and we know that he couldn't hack it as LeBron's second string.  However, he fits precisely the mold that the Spurs are looking for.

3.) Udonis Haslem

Kelly Dwyer from Yahoo's Ball Don't Lie blog calls Udonis Haslem one of the better defenders out there.  He's not a shot blocker, but he's a top notch rebounder and he and has a solid, legitimate offensive game.  For the pessimist, he's kind of an Antonio McDyess upgrade, but I trust Dwyer, and if he says that Haslem has got one of the stellar defensive games in the league, for a big man, then I'm sold.

4.) Channing Frye

A 6-11 Matt Bonner, who plays defense.  Frye torched the Spurs in the playoffs and did a decent job against Timmy on defense.  Another one of those players I'm not sure if we'd be able to get for the MLE, but someone I'm willing to take a swing at.

5.) Jermaine O'Neal

O'Neal is old, he's got no knees, but he's a decent center and defender.  If he's healthy.  Pretty big "if" but it's a risk I'm kind of willing to take.

6.) Brad Miller

American, druggy version of Big Z, minus the defense.

7.) Darko Milicic

Darko has to be among the most maligned big men in the league.  He's definitely up there next to the likes of Kwame Brown and Eddy Curry.  He at least tries on defense, while he had his shot at Minnesota, and he didn't seem like much, I still think he has a decent chance to be something, not a second overall pick, but something, under the influence and leadership of Timmy.

8.) Johan Petro

Petro showed some promise this past season with the Nuggets when Kenyon Martin got injured.  He's shown he's a solid defender and decent rebounder.  Not a bad take, could do worse, I might not spend the entire MLE on him, but he's worth looking at.

9.) Shelden Williams

A body that can produce relatively well, he had a couple of good games with Boston when he got playing time through Kevin Garnett's injuries.

10.) Chris Hunter

Another one of those Warriors D-League projects.  You have to take his production with a grain of salt as it was on the Warriors, but hey, I like his game.

How the Matchups Fall: New Orleans Hornets

I know that most teams probably aren't completely done tinkering their rosters, but still, we have a pretty good idea the direction that teams are generally moving in for the upcoming season. I'm writing these things up under the assumption that everyone is healthy, so it's a fairly ideal situation. Both Tony Parker and Ian Mahinmi are currently playing for the French national team, so it's an added risk, but both are young and so I have no major qualms about it. In fact, it'll probably be good for Mahinmi to familiarize himself with Parker and get some playing time under his belt, getting him in shape and working off some of that rust from injury last season.

As the 2nd through 7th seed are usually somewhat up in the air come playoff time in the Western Conference, and with the San Antonio Spurs usually falling somewhere around 2nd-4th, I realized I'm probably going to be writing about most of the teams in the West, as all of them are potential opponents then in the playoffs. I'm reserving the Lakers to have the better regular season again being top of the Western Conference going into the postseason and I'm leaving the 8th seed (the guys who play the Lakers in the first round) as a tossup between either Phoenix or Houston. That being said, this is a rematch from two years ago, where the Hornets were the cinderella team, barely ceding a tough 7 game series to the more experienced San Antonio Spurs. I can't really say the team's improved significantly, if at all, and while we were all enamoured of the team, honestly, there isn't much to it other than Chris Paul. Okay, that being said, let's just jump into it.

San Antonio Spurs

PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Roger Mason, Manu Ginobili, Malik Hairston
SF - Richard Jefferson, Marcus Williams, Michael Finley
PF - Antonio McDyess, Matt Bonner, DeJuan Blair, Marcus Haislip
C - Tim Duncan, Ian Mahinmi, Theo Ratliff

New Orleans Hornets

PG - Chris Paul, Antonio Daniels, Devin Brown
SG - Rasual Butler, Morris Peterson, Darren Collison
SF - Peja Stojakovic, James Posey, Julian Wright
PF - David West, Ike Diogu
C- Emeka Okafor, Hilton Armstrong

Uh.... wow. Okay. I'm not really sure where I should start with this. I've already talked a little about what Emeka Okafor brings to the Hornets, so let's start there. For all extensive purposes, Emeka Okafor is Tyson Chandler with offense, I'm not sure he has enough of an offensive game to really be able to effectively get around Duncan's stellar post defense, but he is younger and more athletic, though he is also smaller. However, Okafor is probably good enough defensively to give Duncan some problems, he is one of the better defending big-men in the league, and Duncan isn't really getting any younger, so it's hard to say. Frontcourt depth is something of an issue, as always for the Hornets, Julian Wright just hasn't worked, which leaves the frontcourt legitimately 4 deep, with Ike Diogu being relatively unknown as no one has felt inclined to play him, and Hilton Armstrong being serviceable at best. I get the feeling that Pop would probably try to overwhelm them by giving them a number of different looks, as the Spurs boast a frontcourt that's 7 players deep, by mixing and matching Duncan, McDyess, Mahinmi, Bonner, Blair, Ratliff, and Haislip the Spurs frontcourt will always be fresher for one, and the variety of players (despite Blair, Haislip, and Mahinmi being relative unknowns) could pose a lot of matchup problems for Byron Scott as well as wearing out his already short-handed frontcourt. There is also the possibility that if the Spurs are playing a little smaller, Scott might slide Posey to the PF slot to guard someone like Bonner, but there are just too many mismatches to exploit. While I think West might currently be the better player than McDyess, I don't know that it's enough of an edge to make a huge difference, their games are similar enough that I'm sure McDyess has ways to keep him from getting into a groove with that 20 footer.

The big story of the 2008 playoffs was how Tony Parker and Chris Paul were continually going at each other, especially after Pop moved Bruce Bowen back from guarding Paul just so he could keep a hand in Peja's face. 2010 is going to be a pretty different picture though, why? Well, for one, Paul probably won't get much of a break, even when Parker's not on the floor, in fact, I would say that Hill would probably give Paul a harder time on the floor than Parker would, and if Paul is expending that much energy just trying to keep his team afloat, it makes it harder for him to stay in front of anyone on defense. Furthermore, outside of James Posey, the Hornets don't really have anyone that can make buckets and defend at the same time. In the previous series Peja could be hidden on defense by playing him on Bruce Bowen, because Bruce Bowen just sat in the corner and shot threes, so you just had to keep a hand in his face and try to deny the kickout. However, now Peja has to deal with Richard Jefferson, who is much more aggressive and potent offensively. I think that's part of what would make Jefferson valuable, I feel that part of his work as the key defender, is to make the other team's key player have to work to defend him, whereby giving him less energy to do things on the offensive end. Peja just can't keep up with Jefferson, and Jefferson has the length to hassle him endlessly on the defensive end.

While Morris Peterson is supposed to be a defensive stopper, Byron Scott has stopped playing him in favor of the scoring punch of Rasual Butler and the defensive abilities of Devin Brown, unfortunately, I don't know that either match Ginobili, and tack on a good shooting night from Roger Mason (who I probably should've compared to Jaren Jackson instead of Steve Kerr) the wings just aren't there to match. The main issue the Spurs have in any matchup is the fact that no one is really sure what Malik Hairston, Marcus Williams, Marcus Haisliip, and Ian Mahinmi will contribute at the NBA level, but I have confidence in the scouts the Spurs use both overseas and in Austin.

Key Matchups:

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Update: Though this doesn't affect the matchup much, Rasual Butler was dealt to the Clippers for a pick.

How the Matchups Fall: Dallas Mavericks

So, now we're in the true offseason mode, which means that, aside from the odd free agent signings and all, there's not much going on in the league save for odd news clips here and there. Biggest news in the NBA recently (if you haven't heard already) is Rashard Lewis testing positive for steroids, or at least high levels of testosterone. From my perspective, Lewis made a careless mistake, and now he and his team are paying the penalty by having Lewis sidelined with a 10-game suspension. I'm inclined to believe Lewis when he said he simply didn't read the label, and while some might be inclined to disagree with conspiracy theories, both Shaq and LeBron (can't find the link, sorry) agree that Lewis wasn't really in it to gain any sort of unfair advantage.

Anyways, as the offseason is under swing, I figure I'd keep things going here by looking at the current roster as is and how it would match up to the competition, namely, potential playoff opponents and contenders, and how they match up against our dearly beloved Spurs. First let me start off by saying that this is possibly not a completed team, as we don't know what sort of moves RC Buford will potentially make during the season before the trade deadline. With a combination of Matt Bonner, Roger Mason, and Michael Finley; plus any one of the younger/new guys as a package (Ian Mahinmi, Marcus Haislip, Malik Hairston, Marcus Williams, Theo Ratliff, etc...) the Spurs have upwards of $10 million plus in expiring contracts and young guys available. That being said, as a caveat, as far as I can remember, no team making a major move just prior to the trade deadline has ever won a championship, at least as far as I can recall. Remember that Lakers lost to the Celtics in the Finals after the Gasol trade midseason, however, there might not be a correlation between the two, so let's not jump to any conclusions if the team does decide to swap for Marcus Camby or something.

With that, let's jump in to the current standing roster of the San Antonio Spurs:

PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Roger Mason, Manu Ginobili, Malik Hairston
SF - Richard Jefferson, Marcus Williams, Michael Finley
PF - Antonio McDyess, DeJuan Blair, Marcus Haislip, Matt Bonner
C - Tim Duncan, Ian Mahinmi, Theo Ratliff

Those are the 15 players, in my projected depth chart, for the upcoming NBA season. Now, let's look at the opposition. The natural place to start would be the first round victors from the previous season's playoffs, the team that beat San Antonio and knocked them out in a rather embarrassing 4-1 rout, the Dallas Mavericks. Being a fellow Texas team, there's a natural bit of rivalry between the two, now even more so after last season's first round matchup. Dallas looks to be an improved team, and with the volatile Western Conference rankings (that being that any team seeded between 2 and 9 can switch at the change of a game) it's entirely possible that these teams will match up again. Let's consider the Dallas lineup come tipoff time:

PG - Jason Kidd, JJ Barea, Rodrigue Beaubois
SG - Josh Howard, Jason Terry, Matt Carroll, Greg Buckner
SF - Shawn Marion, Quinton Ross, Shelden Williams
PF - Dirk Nowitzki, Drew Gooden, Tim Thomas, Kris Humphries, Nathan Jawai
C - Erick Dampier

Unorthodox is probably one of the first words that would come out of my mouth when asked to describe the Dallas Mavericks' roster. It's a strange combination of talent that emphasizes an outside-in sort of offensive game. While Marion is an improvement over Jerry Stackhouse or Devean George in the roster, the glaring lack of a shot blocker and post defender really hinders the Mavericks in this sort of a matchup.

While Jason Kidd can still produce, he's no where near as fast as he used to be, and with that, he gets burned more frequently than not on the defensive end. Tack on to that the fact that the Mavs have no shot blocking presence to cover for Kidd if someone blows by him, and add onto that the fact that Tony Parker is probably one of the fastest point guards in the league, and you've got a major matchup issue in favor to the Spurs. This has sort of been the story ever since Cuban and friends traded away Devin Harris for Jason Kidd, the Mavericks no longer have anyone that can remotely come close to stopping Tony Parker. As Parker continues to improve, and add that nice mid-range jumper into his arsenal and as Kidd continues to age, the disparity between the two guards becomes bigger and bigger. At the reserves we'll probably see JJ Barea, who, while playing well, is pretty undersized, and I think will be easily outmatched by the length and versatility of George Hill, who will probably smother him, and whoever he's guarding on the defensive end.

If Parker is going off, I can see Pop playing Hill next to him (Parker) as a major defensive stopper on Jason Terry. All in all, while the Mavericks have improved defensively, with the addition Marion, the lack of an interior defender that can body up against Tim Duncan and challenge Tony Parker in the paint still remains a major disadvantage to them. While Dallas has done much to bolster its bench, adding Drew Gooden and Tim Thomas, as well as picking up Kris Humphries and Nathan Jawai from Toronto, none of them are really defenders of any sort. They have more firepower, but saying that Drew Gooden or Kris Humphries is probably the most legitimate post player on the team is a pretty sad statement really. If and when this matchup does occur, I suspect that DeJuan Blair will be showing Dallas how much they miss Brandon Bass.

The biggest problem that Dallas will have in this lineup will be the fact that they will be forced to play extraordinarily small, having both Nowitzki and Gooden probably see extended minutes at center and Shawn Marion seeing a lot of time at power forward. This is a short team. While Nowitzki is a legitimate 7-footer, he plays like he's 6-5, seriously. When it comes crunch time, the best 5 that Rick Carlisle can put on the floor for Dallas will see Dirk at center, Terry and Kidd in the backcourt, and Howard and Marion at the forward slots. Meanwhile, Pop will probably be showing a lineup of Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan. Where does the matchup issue come in? Well simply put, it's height. Kidd and Terry are 6-4 and 6-2 respectively, fine, but Kidd doesn't really have any offensive game to speak of, and while Marion can score, you can't really say he has much of an offensive game either. Tack on to the fact that now we're playing a 6-5 small forward (Howard) and a 6-7 power forward (Marion) with a soft 7 footer (Nowitzki) and you can start to get an inkling of how things might be major matchup issues for Dallas. While Parker is only 6-2, he doesn't really need to do much except bother Kidd and get a hand in his face on defense, Ginobili is 6-6, Jefferson is 6-7, McDyess is 6-9, and Duncan is 6-11. Unfortunately for Dallas, their best post and perimeter defender is found in the 6-7 Shawn Marion, but the roster doesn't allow for switchups because of how potent the Spurs closing 5 has become. I'm fairly confident that Nowitzki cannot defend Tim Duncan on the block, and to switch Marion onto him so you try to hide Nowitzki on the less potent McDyess, just leaves Duncan to shoot over Marion at will, just ask Jeff Van Gundy about those moments he was forced to put the 6-6 Larry Johnson on Duncan in the 1999 Finals. The second major issue would be who Jason Terry guards. Logic would say put the bigger Kidd on Manu and then let Terry try to keep in front of Parker. Okay, that kind of makes sense, but it's still not an optimal situation. The only matchup that ends up working for Dallas is Howard would be expected to guard Jefferson, that's fine, but the problem is that now you can't really hide Terry on anybody. While they do manage to get blocks, Marion and Nowitzki aren't exactly what I would call shot blocking presences, in fact, they're less of one than Erick Dampier, who's not exactly stalwart defensively. What does that mean? If Parker gets in the lane (and Dallas hasn't had anyone fast enough to keep up with him since Devin Harris got traded) it's over, since there isn't really anyone to contest the shot.

I'm sure Pop knows all of this already, and I'm sure Rick Carlisle is trying to come up with a feasible plan to deal with it beyond trying to outscore the other team.

Key Matchups:

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