Looking forward and projecting the future

I know, I know, the playoffs are still in view. The Spurs won an exciting first game against the 2nd seeded Cinderella story of the Denver Nuggets. However, I think barring some miraculous sort of Finals run this year, there are some very real questions that the Spurs have to answer about their roster. It's probably not too early to start looking forward, though there is a lot of time in the offseason, I also do want to give a proper look at Pop and his stint these next two years with USA basketball. While I don't think that I have any concrete answers, I think it does help a little to air out some of the issues that we have. Personally, I don't think it's a chemistry issue as much as a roster construction issue. I don't think the issues in this iteration of the Spurs is intentional, but the way the season has played out, we find that there are indeed a number of question marks that we have going into the next season. And honestly, I'd much rather write about this than how the national media hates the Spurs (maybe I'm crazy, but it sure sounds like they're always rooting for the other team on national calls, I'm looking at you, Hubie).

Panicking at the Process

Normally, when I post here, it's all about unfettered optimism, looking at the silver lining and bright spots in regards to the Spurs. However, given their 1-7 Rodeo Road Trip there seems to be little to look forward to in regards to the Spurs' prospect. As The Starters' analyst Trey Kerby asked, "Are you telling me that both LeBron and the Spurs will miss the playoffs in the same season?" While it seems unlikely, it is still entirely within the realm of possibility given the difficulty of the West and the tightness between the 7-10 seeds. As it stands, Spurs are 8th, one game behind the Clippers in both the win and loss columns (3 games behind the Jazz in the loss column for 6th seed), only 2 games ahead of Sacramento in the win column and a decent 5 games ahead of both the Timberwolves and the Lakers (4 in the win, 2 in the loss).  The season certainly is not lost, Derrick White is back as is DeMar DeRozan's shooting, and LaMarcus Aldridge has maintained his aggression, so let's take a back and forth look at how things are panning out for the Spurs right now.

Unfettered Optimism: Truly the Start of a new Era

It's hard to look last season's drama with Kawhi Leonard subsequently concluding with his being traded with Danny Green to Toronto for DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, and  a protected 2019 pick as having any sort of positive. I mean, you just lost a legitimate two-way star that was a two-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year and finals MVP, not to mention close runner up for MVP when he was healthy and playing. The loss of arguably one of the premier perimeter defenders in Danny Green as well is a tough pill to swallow, but given the situation, changes were necessary. Despite being one of the premier defensive squads in the league (1st in opponents points allowed per game at 99.8 and 3rd in overall defensive rating of 104.8) they were dismal on the other end (27th in points per game at 102.7, 17th overall offensive rating at 107.9). While the common belief was that the return of Kawhi Leonard as our number 1 option would solve much of our offensive woes, it became painfully clear that outside of LaMarcus Aldridge we had no effective go-to third option, no way of generating offense when we needed it. We got open shots, but we can't hit them, and frankly, we had trouble creating offense.

This is Why We Signed Rudy Gay

Last night in a win over the Miami Heat, Rudy Gay scored 22 points in 26 minutes on 6-8 shooting (with a 9-11 outing at the charity stripe) as the San Antonio Spurs went on a 32-13 run to close out what was a high-octane shootout with what both coaches (Gregg Popovich and Erik Spoelstra) would consider sub-par (read: abysmal) defense. I'd like to note that 15 of Gay's 22 points came during that 32 point Spurs run at the end of the game.

Unfettered Optimism: Spurs Start Strong

The 2017-2018 season has begun, and the Spurs are 3-0. Of course they are, they're the Spurs. Did I mention that they are playing without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker? Who cares? There's always a bit of excitement to start out a new season and this season is no different, in fact, there may be more buzz, despite the prediction of an inevitable fourth Golden State Warriors/Cleveland Cavaliers showdown in the NBA Finals. But the season is young and anything can happen, and I certainly like what I'm seeing so far from the other guys and the hope is that we'll get better when Kawhi and Tony come back. Here are three things I'm super excited about.

Unfettered Optimism: Summer Signings

I believe that Spurs have made most of the moves that they're going to make. If we assume that the imminent signings of Manu Ginobili and Pau Gasol then most of the signings are pretty much complete, at least as far as I can see in terms of the main players on the roster. Granted, there might be a few more signings or people that surprise during training camp. Here's where I see the roster as the season begins:

PG - Patty Mills, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Tony Parker
SG - Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Brandon Paul
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Kyle Anderson
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge, Davis Bertans
C - Pau Gasol, Joffrey Lauvergne

Officially, Bryn Forbes (who has been lighting up the Summer League) and 2nd round pick Jaron Blossomgame have not yet signed contracts with the team, but to be honest, I've never been 100% convinced about Bryn Forbes. He has the ability to be a Roger Mason or Gary Neal type player at best and frankly Patty Mills works out better. I also am not sure what exactly will happen with Adam Hanga joining at least training camp, hopefully he'll pan out slightly better than Livio Jean-Charles.

Reacting to summer trades so far...

Summer is here and that means all the speculation, trades, and reshuffling the NBA goes through during the summer. The draft has occurred and I'll put out a post regarding my thoughts on the Spurs' draft picks, though there's not much to say, they made smart picks with their typical late 1st round and 2nd round picks. However, this post will be about the two major trades that have happened so far. Granted, every team is still trying to see if they can land Paul George and/or Gordon Hayward.

Looking at Positional Needs: Assessing Wing Depth

Looking at the Spurs this off-season there are a lot of needs to be addressed. I'm hoping to put out a series of posts that detail some of the options we have at each position this off-season. However, before we get there, we have to understand the situation that the Spurs have on their hands. That means a quick (and casual) look at the Spurs' salary cap situation.

From a cursory glance, we can surmise that the salary cap for next season will be $101 million, which is the important number for us. Another slightly less important number is the $121 million luxury tax threshold. (Note: salary figures provided by HoopsHype). I'm not going to get into the cap holds for players on the Spurs' roster entering free agency, but will simply illustrate the best case scenario here. Let's also not forget that many are already looking towards the 2018 free agent class which includes both Paul George and LeBron James.
Let's assume Manu retires and all players with options opt out. This means that the Spurs will have about $72 million in salary wrapped up. Sounds good right? However, if we look at the roster under that assumption:

PG - Tony Parker, Dejounte Murray
SG - Danny Green, Bryn Forbes
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge, Davis Bertans
C

While we're technically still paying for Livio Jean-Charles, I don't know that he's coming back to the roster anytime soon.

As reference, let's look at all of the Spurs' draft-and-stash players they have available to them: Adam Hanga (SG/SF), Nemanja Dangubic (SG), Nikola Milutinov (C). We'll discuss them as their position comes up.

Unfettered Optimism: New faces and young guns

Tim Duncan retired. It's kind of the end of an era for the Spurs. Strange to say it, but essentially the Spurs are sort of officially in a rebuild phase. Yes, we still have Tony and Manu (albeit on the last legs of their careers), yes we did sign Pau (also last legs), but Timmy was the cornerstone for the franchise for arguably his entire 19 year career. Yet this is what makes the Spurs amazing. For most NBA teams the word "rebuilding" means that you're bottom feeding in the standings, looking for that lottery pick that will change your fortunes (e.g. the 76ers). It's interesting to note, that no team with a top five pick has jumped from lottery to the playoffs since 2003, no rookie has had that sort of impact since Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade (not gonna count Darko even though he technically won a championship his rookie year, because frankly, Larry Brown hated playing rookies). Currently, as stars of the early 2000s (e.g. Duncan, Kobe Bryant, and Dirk Nowitzki, sorry but Kevin Garnett hasn't really been super relevant for the better part of the last decade) begin to fade into the sunset most teams are either rebuilding (e.g. the Lakers now that Kobe is gone) or anticipating a rebuild (e.g. the Mavericks once Dirk is gone). That's what happens when you lose a pillar of the team.

Unfettered Optimism: The Emergence of Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard is my new favorite player.

I didn't follow basketball much growing up. Sure, I watched the Jazz-Bulls finals in the 90s (rooting for the Mailman) and part of the Lakers' finals runs in the 2000s. One team that really stuck with me though, for some reason, was the starting 5 of the 1999 San Antonio Spurs championship team. As I grew older, I began to respect a player like David Robinson much more. That lead me to Tim Duncan. I was enamored with the seemingly simple way Duncan played. The footwork, the rebounding, the post-play, it was simple, but elegant, it was all stuff you would hear about how to do in a basketball camp.

Even as the team transitioned to being the Tony Parker show, I still staunchly held to the long-held ideology, that if the Spurs ever needed a bucket, you could just throw it into Duncan in the post, and everything would work out fine.

Why are we considered "boring"?

A blowout is a blowout right?

Then why is it that we are so fascinated by the Warriors destroying the Suns or Nets but not the Spurs obliterating the Jazz or Hawks? I mean let’s think about it, let’s take a look at the last 5 games where both the Spurs and Warriors have the same exact record 4-1. The Warriors played the Nets, Pacers, Celtics, Bucks, and Suns. The score differentials were +16, +8, +5, -13, +25 respectively. Sure, we can give them some slack for most of those games being away, sure we can say that they had a back-to-back (and their loss came on the second night of one), but I don’t think those things are huge mitigating factors, and besides, if you are gassed on the second night of a back-to-back after going to double overtime in the first game, it’s both a credit to the opposing team and kind of your own fault that you got the two extra periods anyway. The Spurs played the Raptors, Lakers, Hawks, Jazz, and Wizards. I would posit that the strength of schedule based solely on the opponents is comparable. The point differentials were -3, +22, +25, +37, +19. I mean, that’s crazy. Look, I think both teams are great, the margin of difference in point differential is less than 0.2 so I don’t want to take anything away from either team, but I am curious as to why people would be more willing to watch a Golden State 50 point victory over a San Antonio 50 point victory.

Unfettered Optimism: From BoBo to SloMo

Look, let's be honest, if you're nickname in college is "Slo-Mo", which is universally short for "slow motion" I'm not entirely positive that it's a compliment. I know this is supposed to be one of my super optimistic, "Spurs are going to be awesome" posts, but I want to get out of the way first, that I have many rather significant reservations about this year's draft pick Kyle Anderson. I don't deny that he perhaps has the unique skill-set that the Spurs may be looking for, that is, a big man who can sort of play like a point guard, and thus many pundits have been hailing the Spurs' draft pick as the second coming of Boris Diaw. Now, I'll be the first to admit, that there are times when I get overly optimistic, and while Boris Diaw 2.0 isn't exactly some claim to superstardom, I want everyone to just slow down for a second. I know the Spurs just obliterated the Heat in the Finals, and I know that the Spurs have a strong history of finding diamonds in the rough of the late first-round of the draft (i.e. Tony Parker, George Hill, Luis Scola, Leandro Barbosa, etc...), but let's take a step back and take a look at what we have here before we start handing out any accolades.

Buying in to the System

If the 2014 NBA Finals did anything, it was to once again reveal to us how amazing the concept of "system" basketball is. We often forget of how important the role players on each team are, in any championship team, the Spurs didn't rediscover this, they've known this all along, all 2014 did was to re-emphasize that point by the popularizing of role players like Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, and Danny Green against arguably three of the biggest superstar names in the NBA in recent history in LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. After a struggle against the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, which ended up being a brilliant chess match between Rick Carlisle and Gregg Popovich over 7 games, the Spurs handily defeated three teams that arguably had the hottest stars of the league. First it was the unexpected but dangerous duo of LaMarcus Aldridge, arguably one of the best if not the best PF currently in the league, with a mid-range game that makes him neigh unguardable at 6-11, and the up and coming PG Damian Lillard. After that, the team that was pegged to be locked in the next 5 NBA Finals with the Miami Heat, after their summary decimation of the Spurs in 2012, the Oklahoma City Thunder, featuring an unparalleled scorer in Kevin Durant and a blistering combination of athleticism and energy in Russell Westbrook (incidentally, the Thunder have not made it back to the Finals since). All of which led up to the first Finals rematch since Michael Jordan's Bulls faced off twice against a John Stockton and Karl Malone led Jazz in 1995 and 1996.

Spurs Still Looking Strong

Coming off of a convincing 2014 NBA Championship, it's really hard to think of how the Spurs could get significantly better. With most of the big free agent names accounted for, and the Spurs not being a landing spot for any of them, free agency for San Antonio fans essentially boils down to who make the Spurs' much speculated but typically irrelevant 15th roster spot.

Eastern Conference Rankings

The NBA season is back upon us and like anybody with a supposedly “informed” opinion on the matter, the unenviable task of ranking the teams based purely on speculation Is something we’re supposed to do. Of course, we’re already a couple of days into the season so I’m a little behind, but the sample size has been small enough that we haven’t really set any trends, so I don’t think that this will be a huge dent in my initial projections. Of course, the irony of writing this on the plane is that I, being too stingy to pay for the WiFi on the plane means that I won’t have the backing of internet research at my hands, but at the same time, I won’t have the distraction to prevent me from actually getting around to writing this post. So without further ado, let’s begin; on with the East.

What to Expect From T-Mac

I was just about as surprised as anyone when the Spurs announced that they cut Stephen Jackson. However, I trusted that Pop knew what he was doing and that whatever mojo SJax was bringing into the lockerroom was no good. When I heard the news, my first reaction was to immediately jump to the waiver wires and see which SF were available. Naturally, at the top of the list was former All-Star Tracy McGrady, and I mentioned to a co-worker that we should consider giving the tires on T-Mac a little kick and see what he has left. Then, the Spurs announced they signed Tracy McGrady.

Now this post isn't to say that I can read RC Buford's mind, because, I can't. I probably just got lucky on this one, or maybe the choice was just THAT obvious. That being said, from the reports that I've seen and the logic behind Pop's decision making, we do need to temper somewhat our expectations of what to expect out of T-Mac when he does check into a game with a Spurs uniform on (which won't be until the playoffs, if ever).

First off, T-Mac will NOT be getting Stephen Jackson's minutes. While I am somewhat fond of the idea of trotting T-Mac out there as the primary SF backup, I understand that having played the entire season in China and not really had any experience with the team (or chemistry for that matter) that Pop approaches T-Mac as more of an insurance policy, he's a steady veteran hand that will be buried relatively deep in the bench, I'd imagine somewhat akin to Steve Smith or Glenn Robinson in the previous Spurs playoff runs.

With the anticipation of Manu returning to the floor, I can see Pop shortening his wing rotation to basically Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, and Manu Ginobili, and depending on foul trouble or matchups insert Gary Neal sort of sparingly either as an off-guard or as Tony Parker's primary backup. With that being said, when he needs a kickstart, he then may insert Tracy McGrady. So what then do we expect from T-Mac?

Ideally, he'd be something of a spark plug, more of a tertiary offensive creator that just comes in and scores a couple of timely buckets. He may be that second quarter spark that the Spurs sometimes need going into halftime. While no three-point specialist, T-Mac's above-average ability to handle the ball and run an offense does give him the ability to maintain a certain amount of spacing with the rest of the players, and I am sure these practices are just drilling T-Mac in where to go when certain players are on the floor. Certainly T-Mac isn't going to take over games anymore, but he may provide a steady hand and decent playmaking when defenses start zoning in on Parker and Ginobili and Neal and Green potentially start stalling out.

The biggest question mark for T-Mac would be how he fares on the defensive end, which I believe is largely mitigated by the fact that he probably won't be playing significant enough minutes to warrant that to be a major issue. Hopefully, though, if he does become a key rotation player, it's because he's earning the minutes, more so than anyone getting injured or something.

Anyways, I am very excited to see how T-Mac fares in black and silver. I don't expect him to turn back the clock, but I believe that he has more left in the tank than the average fan might give him credit for. So once again to the Spurs' front office. Good move.

Understanding the Spurs' Frontcourt Need

Look, we've been saying it since 2008, Tim Duncan isn't really getting any younger, and maybe it's about time we find someone to give him a hand in the frontcourt, you know, another shot-blocking, rebounding big, that can space the floor, and play next to Timmy and spot him some minutes. Of course, whenever any Spurs fan says that, we invariably think of David Robinson, and of course we go out of our way to say that of course we're not expecting another Hall of Fame center to waltz into the doors, especially at the bottom of the waiver wire or at the end of the draft or out of the obscure depths of the Euroleague, but secretly, you know we're all thinking something like that. Naturally names get thrown out, and people get all giddy about trying to get Tyson Chandler or Chris Kaman or Eddy Curry.

As much as we say we're not looking for the next David Robinson, the spectrum of range between "the next David Robinson" and "better than Matt Bonner" is pretty broad and expansive. I mean, let's realistically think about it, what made the Twin Towers work? It's because both Duncan and Robinson were interchangeable in the low block, they had remarkable basketball IQ, were good passers, rebounders, and shot blockers. It's really the lack of another player that has those last two skills in combination that I believe most Spurs fans are looking for. Of course that's understandable given that the bigs in the rotation around Duncan are currently Diaw, Splitter, Bonner, and Blair, none of which are exactly known for shot blocking and only Blair being any good at rebounding consistently, though for a variety of other reasons make him an unfavorable match with Duncan. Ultimately, what made the Duncan and Robinson combination lethal, and it's been said before, was their mobility.

Let's be honest with ourselves then, there are only three players that are the contemporaries of Duncan that I would argue would have fit well next to him, and frankly, once you have seen who they are, you'd understand why the Spurs probably never really had much of a shot with them.

1) Kevin Garnett
Beyond the fact that he and Duncan arguably played the same position, are the same size, and same age as each other, Garnett could be argued as the anti-Duncan. Garnett came into the league out of high school while Duncan completed his Bachelor's degree (in psychology, with honors) at Wake Forest. Duncan is the quiet, lead-by-example kind of guy while Garnett is the outspoken, in-your-face kind of player. Duncan relished the low post, while Garnett never really developed a legitimate go-to move. The Duncan/Garnett comparisons have been hashed out ad nauseum, but let's face it, despite all their differences, they would have been among the greatest big men ever paired together, their games perfectly complement each other. While Garnett prefers the jumper off pick-and-pops, he's solid enough inside to warrant attention, likewise, while Duncan is a beast on the low block, his mid range game is solid enough to need to be respected by the defense. Both are highly active on the defensive end, hounding players and altering shots, grabbing rebounds, etc...

2) Rasheed Wallace
Most people's impression of Wallace is a headcase who takes ill-advised three pointers. Those of us with a longer memory recall him as the guy Scottie Pippen hated playing with on the Blazers. Yet why I put his name here, is because of my re-evaluated perspective on Wallace after watching the matchup between him and Duncan in the 2005 NBA finals. Granted we'll never know what Duncan could have become had he not had to have knee surgery in 2000, but Wallace was one of those players that could give even Duncan trouble, particularly on the defensive end. He was relatively explosive a leaper, had long arms and solid post moves. He was mobile on defense, and as we all know, his range extended all the way to the three point line. While we hated him for taking so many of them, he could still knock them down at a reasonable clip.

3) Pau Gasol
I know that in recent memory Gasol has always gotten the "soft" label whenever the Lakers have underachieved. I mean, I understand that he doesn't like the spot light, the focal point of the defense, it's wearing, because the big men are also asked to do anchor their own team's defense too, which is what makes two way players like Duncan so remarkable. That being said, Gasol isn't bad defensively, while he may not have the reputation that perhaps Garnett or Wallace have, he is big and smart and is able to adequately swat shots and grab rebounds. Additionally, Gasol is a great high post player who passes well, which compliments Duncan wonderfully offensively, because Gasol is also a solid low post player and Duncan is a good high post player that passes well too. While Gasol I suppose would nominally be the center, I never thought for a moment that Gasol doesn't like player center, I think it was his subtle way of saying, he didn't like having to play in a frontcourt with Hakim Warrick.

Anyways, enough with the dream scenario, let's look at where the Spurs are now. Excluding Duncan, the remaining big men on the roster are as we previously mentioned Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner, Tiago Splitter, and DeJuan Blair. Now in looking at this, we understand that the best overall player that complements Duncan is Diaw, the biggest player is Splitter, the best rebounder is Blair, and the best floor spacer is Bonner, it's not really ideal, but it does give us a glimpse of what exactly it is the front office is looking for to put next to Duncan. That being said, we now need to look at the rotation, typically Diaw will start with Duncan and Bonner will come in usually with Splitter, I understand that Pop will try playing more with Splitter and Duncan sharing floor time but that generally doesn't happen too often, for two reasons. First, size, with both Splitter and Duncan on the floor for extended minutes may mean that there will be times when both of them will be off the floor at the same time, leaving the tallest player in the Spurs lineup one of Boris Diaw or Matt Bonner (or Stephen Jackson). Secondly, spacing, Splitter has no mid-range game so to speak, but you ideally want Duncan under the basket, then they both occupy the same space on offense, which ultimately means, for things to run smoothly, Duncan becomes the mid-range shooter full-time.

So, what then do we need ascertain what exactly it is that we're looking for in a big man. The biggest question that ultimately I have would be how much more can Tiago Splitter grow? The reason Diaw is such a good fit is because he can play well next to both Duncan and Splitter, he provides passing and has an adequate enough jumper to space the floor. So ultimately, if the player we want to get is to have any sort of meaningful (i.e. Matt Bonner's) playing time, he'll need to be able to do the same. That's asking a lot of a big man who blocks shots. Bringing in say a Tyson Chandler-type player would only signal to me that we've sort of given up on Splitter, because frankly that player can't share any floor time with Splitter.

It's not an easy answer. When I look back at the OKC series, besides Green and Bonner not being able to find a three to save their lives, one thing that stood out to me was the inability of Tiago Splitter to punish Serge Ibaka in the post when Perkins was off the floor. That's why a low post beast like Eddy Curry was an intriguing prospect to me. However, maybe this year Splitter takes a step forward with his post game. That's ultimately what I think it will take, we're probably not going to find a shot blocker type player that's going to meet our specific needs, but short of us landing LaMarcus Aldridge or Al Horford off the waiver wires, I'm not really sure we're going to do significantly "better than Matt Bonner". Who knows? I haven't really given up on Splitter yet, so maybe he steps it up this year, and we won't be talking so much about the need for a big man.

Changing it up with more of the same?

I recall there was someone pretty smart that once said:

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." 

So when the Spurs front office decided to bring back essentially the exact same roster that lost four in a row to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Semifinals, I had to ask the question: are R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich insane? Now people can talk about coaching mistakes that perhaps Popovich made (i.e. pulling Matt Bonner and Danny Green for missing shots and thus destroying their confidence) or how Scotty Brooks figured it out (i.e. keeping Thabo Sefolosha in during crunch time instead of Derek Fisher) or some combination of the two and how awesome Kevin Durant is. The fact is, we lost, pretty embarrassingly so.

I'm not going to go into depth about how we fell apart, how we couldn't create offense, how our defense wasn't good enough, and how we missed a ton of shots. Popovich was in a precarious situation, on one hand he needed his role players to grow up, but on the other hand, his role players couldn't buy a bucket to save their lives. Was Pop right to bench Danny Green and Matt Bonner through the second half of the series? I think it's up in the air, but here's what we know, through the first 4 games of the series Danny Green was 4 for 21 from beyond the arc, that's 19%, that's worse than Baron Davis, and Green is supposed to be the sort of defensive three point specialist. That's when Pop pulled the plug. Bonner, also a three point specialist went 1 for 7 from beyond the arc in three games before Pop pulled the plug. 1 for 7, that's 14.29%. Sure, this is Danny Green's first playoff, sure, he didn't have training camp to get used to it, maybe he got the jitters, Matt Bonner's been consistently disappearing from the playoffs for the past 3-4 years, so... yeah, something's not working here.

That being said, I like many Spurs fans, were looking for some kind of improved production from our front court, some sort of improvement. Names like Marcus Camby, Elton Brand, Chris Kaman all passed the lips, keyboards, and screens of many of the Spurs' faithful. Yet the front office, completely unfazed by last year, kept it familiarly quiet as they normally do. They re-signed Boris Diaw, Danny Green, and Patty Mills, then brought Nando De Colo over from France, while also quietly probing for trade interest in DeJuan Blair and James Anderson and seeing just how offensively mature Kawhi Leonard is. So our roster now looks something like this:

PG - Tony Parker, Patty Mills, Nando De Colo
SG - Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Gary Neal
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Jackson
PF - Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner
C - Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter

The above listed are just the people I think will break the rotation. Technically I believe Cory Joseph, James Anderson, and DeJuan Blair are still technically on the roster, though I'm actually a little iffy on Gary Neal's status as well.

That being said, all the players of questionable status will likely not majorly impact the rotation significantly. While we had that amazing streak at the end of the season, we lost it abruptly and at probably the worst possible moment. OKC is legitimately a good team, Durant, Westbrook, and Harden are that good and difficult to play against. Once we started stumbling, we picked a really hard team to attempt to recover against.

Now, do we still have roster issues, I think maybe, but perhaps with a full year of development and growth from Kawhi Leonard, coupled with a full season of understood expectations from Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw, we may be able to mitigate some of the shortcomings we ran into during the playoffs last season.

Do I think that we could use another big man? Certainly, but he has to be the right one, and that's hard to find. What made the Twin Towers of yore so deadly was not merely that their offensive games meshed or that they both were elite rebounders and shot blockers, but actually the simple concept of how active and mobile both Tim Duncan and David Robinson were for players of their size. Duncan in his advanced years certainly doesn't have the same amount of mobility, but the issue has always been finding him a partner after Robinson's retirement that would pair with him as effectively. In 2005 and 2007 Duncan was good enough to make up the difference moving from a player like David Robinson to the likes of Rasho Nesterovich, Nazr Mohammed, Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson, and Robert Horry, and since then has been asked to do the same for the likes of Antonio McDyess, Matt Bonner, Kurt Thomas, and Drew Gooden, something that's unfair to Tim Duncan.

When Tiago Splitter decided to make the leap into the NBA, we thought perhaps we had found the second iteration of the Twin Towers, someone (optimistically) for Duncan to pass the torch to or someone (realistically) to hold the fort until the next franchise big man emerged. Yet that hasn't been the case. It hasn't been that Splitter has played poorly, on the contrary, after recovering from his rookie year injury, he's matured greatly in his second season, adjusting well to the game that he's been asked to play. The fact that we don't have the effective frontcourt we as Spurs fans are used to speaks not of the deficiencies of players like Tiago Splitter but to the singularity of talents that are Tim Duncan and David Robinson.

That being said, what do we do about our frontcourt, what are we looking for? The biggest knock people have on our big men is that outside of Duncan no one is a really good rebounder or shot blocker. Frankly, no one has needed to be, because Duncan has been that good. Honestly though, it's true, the best rebounder after Duncan is DeJuan Blair, whose defense and offensive game make it difficult for him to mesh with the rotation, the next being Kawhi Leonard, who is not a big man. Bonner is asked to do little other than stay in front of his man and hit open threes, and neither Splitter nor Diaw are elite rebounders either. Yet, it's not as simple as finding a big body that can grab boards (i.e. Chris Kaman). The biggest issue that the Spurs run into is a matter of the offensive flow.

Here's what I mean, if Tiago Splitter is going to be a large part of the rotation, you want to put him somewhere where he will be offensively successful. Unless (until) he develops a jumper, that is going to be in the area around the rim. This is the largest issue you run into when you have Splitter and Duncan on the floor at the same time, because Duncan is also most effective around the rim. Granted Duncan does have a mid-range jumper that needs to be respected, but the only player that can punish opposing defenses in the post is going to be Tim Duncan. That being said, the Duncan/Splitter pairing is going to be limited, but they both are a valuable part of the rotation. So the issue then becomes, who is able to play next to both Duncan and Splitter. When you have a player next to Duncan like David Robinson, it's easy, you just need to find someone to fill the space and the minutes (like Malik Rose), however, Splitter, while good, is no David Robinson, and Duncan, while still very good, is coming on 10 years since he last played with Robinson. This is why Boris Diaw is such a good fit, and why Bonner still gets playing time, because their spots on offense don't overlap as greatly with either Splitter's or Duncan's. The issue of a big man for the Spurs simply boils down to this, if we like Splitter's game, which we do, who can we find that can play with both him and Duncan, the most effective route to take is to effectively make Duncan a C and finding an effective PF, which frankly we've been doing since 2003 by playing Malik Rose and Robert Horry for extended minutes. Unfortunately, what that also means is the player we get likely won't be a major shotblocker, and if he's outside of the paint a lot, probably will be out of position to be a good rebounder. Hopefully Kawhi Leonard can make up for some of that, but at the end of the day, I think the Spurs did the best they could with what they have.

That being said do I think the Spurs are done in their quest for a championship? Well, I'm not counting them out, certainly it will be tough, and many people wonder, and rightfully so, whether or not the Spurs have answered the questions raised by the OKC matchup. The answer is, I'm not sure. After the first 20 game blowout in Game 3 in the OKC meltdown, Games 4, 5, and 6 were lost by margins of 6, 5, and 8. There were a lot of reasons for missed shots, chippy OKC play, hard closeouts, good defense. I'm just going to say, if Danny Green and Matt Bonner had simply made a third, a below league average 33%, of their three pointers, that would've been 15 points. I know it doesn't work like that, but I'm just saying.

I'm looking forward to how things come together next year. Hey, it's odd.

Mid-season moves?

As per usual around the time of the All-Star break teams are starting to consider if any roster moves are necessary to make that improvement to take things to the next level. Gregg Popovich is already thinking ahead with his benching of Tony Parker and Tim Duncan in their last game against Portland and gave the younger guys some burn, with Manu Ginobili, Tiago Splitter, and T.J. Ford all still out with injury we were looking at a rather limited rotation of Cory Joseph, Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard, Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, Matt Bonner, James Anderson, Danny Green, and D-League call-up Eric Dawson. Super. However, given the frenetic pace of the compact season, it seems that teams are thinking twice before pulling the trigger on any major moves. Some free agents have returned from China and J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin have both signed with the Knicks and the Clippers respectively. Wilson Chandler is expected to return and sign a deal with the Nuggets given that FIBA clears him.

While the decision to rest Tony Parker in his All-Star play and the new found youth in Tim Duncan's legs may have snapped our win-streak at 11 on the Rodeo Roadtrip, it was to be expected. We've seen Pop start to take fewer chances with his stars in order to have fresher legs come playoff time. That being said, the bench has been playing very well together and despite an extended injury to Manu, the Spurs role players have been coming together and making the Spurs one of the hottest teams in the league. However, despite that, the concern that is to be had given our frontcourt rotation is still, well, just that, a concern. Currently, Pop typically starts Blair next to Duncan, and brings in Splitter and Bonner in off the bench, however, the issue that is to be had is that Blair and Splitter cannot coexist on the floor at the same time, which somewhat limits Pop's rotations. While there have been great improvements, their defensive limitations do make a frontcourt pairing of Bonner and Blair somewhat questionable. So, what are we looking for? Well, ideally, we'd like someone that can play next to both Duncan and Splitter, as those two, I believe will be the key pieces to any run in the playoffs.

While we can take something of the 2005 Championship frontcourt rotation route as a model, we need to remember that Duncan is 6 years (and thousands of basketball minutes) older, and while Tiago Splitter looks to be way better than Nazr Mohammed, Matt Bonner is no Robert Horry. So who is available? Well, that question is difficult enough as it is, but the question that we need to understand before that is who do we have to offer? This is presuming a trade scenario presents itself. Generally speaking, the offense is still largely based around Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan, and the key role players have been Leonard, Splitter, Neal, Bonner, and Green, which means who do we have available to trade? Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, James Anderson, and Cory Joseph. More the latter three as I don't know that anyone really wants Jefferson's contract. In total, Anderson, Joseph, and Blair probably sum up to around $2.5 million in salary, so we'd have to get something comparable back.

With that, who are we looking for? Well, if we're considering someone that can play next to Duncan AND Splitter the immediate players that come to my mind are Splitter's Brazilian teammate Anderson Varejao, Tony Parker's French teammate Ronny Turiaf, or maybe the Birdman Chris Andersen. However, I don't know that we can make anything work. While the Nuggets are suffering through some major injuries, requiring the minutes of Birdman, they also already have a high energy big in Kenneth Faried, thus making Blair not very attractive in a package. While they are decimated by injuries the return of Wilson Chandler may make the wings unnecessary as well.

Honestly, I can't say I've been doing my homework in paying attention to what's going on this season, but from a cursory glance, it doesn't seem that we can find someone to work with, I personally think Ronny Turiaf might work if Washington is just looking to shed salary, and he's slated to return from his injury soon as well. With the crowded frontcourt of Andray Blatche (also due to return from injury), JaVale McGee, Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin, and Jan Vesely it's hard to imagine that a veteran role player like Turiaf would find a lot of time in there when Washington is looking to develop its youth. However, with that youth I don't know that we'd be able to package anything that would be attractive to the Wizards as well.

James Anderson might be the biggest trade piece available, and with the development of Tristan Thompson and Samardo Samuels it's possible that Varejao is the most available, especially with the wings at Cleveland being hit hard with injuries, James Anderson might be able to find a chance there to show his stuff, however, that being said, there's no guarantees there either. It's been said before that it's hard to make a trade in the NBA, and that's true, particularly in this shortened season where healthy big men seem to be at a premium. I could probably putz around for something that would work, but honestly, there's not much that I can think of that would be appealing to another team. It's not that the package we have would be bad, it's just that it's actually a little redundant to the rest of the league. Maybe something I haven't thought of will come up, I trust Buford, and this little thought exercise was just a way to consider things down the line. With injuries mounting, it may not be the best idea to shop around, but rather to stick with what is working, and maybe I'm being pessimistic about our chances in the post season, but hey better safe than sorry. I mean, it's not like the Lakers would just give Pau Gasol away.

Our new backup PG

Everyone was a little iffy about whether or not rookie Cory Joseph could fill the role of backup admirably in the Spurs organization. While playing limited minutes, this was still always an important role, and during our championship years filled by players like Antonio Daniels and Speedy Claxton. Now, this is something we don't have to worry about, as I find that the Spurs have just signed T.J. Ford. Ford, while being known for attempting too many one-man fastbreaks, does provide veteran saavy, and is reported to have been focusing more on defense and play-making over the past years, two things Pop loves to hear. Well, I'm done talking. Good job RC, good job.