tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-45984446571623988392024-03-05T04:16:53.288-08:00Fundamentally SoundMuch ado about the San Antonio SpursGnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.comBlogger88125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-51277820726294010962019-11-07T07:31:00.000-08:002019-11-07T07:31:09.033-08:00Reality Check: Is this as good as we get?A lot of things arguably started going awry when Kawhi Leonard forced his way out of San Antonio two seasons ago. I don't really want to rehash the whole issue with Kawhi and his uncle, but there was a pointed shift in the Spurs' on-court identity when, in an attempt to recoup something from Kawhi wanting out, Kawhi and Danny Green for DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl. While I appreciate what DeMar and Jakob bring to the floor we have to be honest and say we didn't get equal value back for that trade, we got what we could. However, also in that year we swapped out Kyle Anderson for Marco Belinelli and the Spurs vaunted offense took a major hit.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>We all knew DeRozan would be a major step back from Kawhi Leonard defensively, but we also have to note that he changed the offensive identity of the Spurs as well. At best DeRozan would emulate the type of offense Kawhi would have generated, unfortunately we also learned (especially last year) that Kawhi's offense had grown so much as to far outstrip that of DeMar DeRozan. For all his offense gifts and prowess DeRozan was and is a known final product, whereas Kawhi is now reaching his ceiling which is so much higher. However, that's also not what I wanted to discuss.</div>
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Looking at the Spurs now, we are a middling team built around two aging stars in LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan. Seven games into the season, with two losses coming against two extraordinarily talented Los Angeles teams, and a young and hungry (and shorthanded and eminently beatable) Atlanta Hawks team and the wins against beatable teams like the Wizards, Knicks, Warriors (minus Steph Curry and of course no Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant), and a solid win against a refurbished Blazers squad (with a lot of luck to mitigate a late-game meltdown). </div>
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While certainly this is no time to panic, we are a respectable 4-2, beating teams that we are supposed beat and we lost to teams that are supposed to be two of the best teams in the league, two legitimate title contenders. Certainly, it feels strange that the Spurs are not even considered playoff locks, but it's reasonable given the talent that we have. I'm not suggesting we panic, but I think it's time we take a good, hard look at what the Spurs have and what direction they want to go.</div>
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This season we entered with a lot of optimism. We were getting All-NBA defensive guard Dejounte Murray back from injury, breakout guard Derrick White was now going to get a chance to shine, athletic guard Lonnie Walker IV might get a chance to crack the rotation and show us what he's got. We shored up our wing defense signing DeMarre Carroll and while it hurt losing Davis Bertans for nothing in the Marcus Morris contract debacle, we managed to pick up Trey Lyles, a former lottery pick who has never quite realized his potential. What better place to do that than San Antonio? With an extra year of comfort for DeRozan and Poeltl, tacked onto the corporate knowledge already in place with Marco Belinelli and Patty Mills, in addition the much vaunted physical strides Bryn Forbes had made, things looked rosy. Sure there were questions about DeRozan's contract and potential extension, but all-in-all it looked like a good season for the Spurs even in this loaded Western Conference.</div>
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Seven games into the season though, I have some questions that we have to really contemplate. To be fair, I really like the Spurs' future, but player development is always a tricky thing. Am I giddy at the Luka Samanic/Toni Kukoc comparisons? Yes. But at the same time we have to consider what some of our other options are going forward. While landing LaMarcus Aldridge in the 2015 off season was a big win for the Spurs, San Antonio generally hasn't been considered a big free agent destination. Granted, Spurs remained competitive largely due to the draft coups of Tim Duncan (1997), Manu Ginobili (1999), and Tony Parker (2001) and thus haven't needed to attract large free agents for the last nearly two decades, for all the players that say they think San Antonio is a great system and Pop is a great coach, not many want to come here to play. To be fair, this may also be something that the Spurs front office is okay with, not wanting to have to deal with the drama that comes behind a high-profile free agent. Spurs are interested in the "right type" of player, or as Pop might put it players that are "over themselves." So in some sense, this is the first time we have really ventured into unknown territory in the Popovich era, where things are less certain. This is certainly not intended to be a knock on the Spurs' current players, but perhaps it is more of a testament to the greatness of Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker.</div>
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Six games in there are several observations that are concerning. Given the last two decades of success in the franchise, it's obvious that the fans and organization all have a very high expectation for the team. We expect to be competitive and contending almost every year. That's a tall order but understandable with the team having not missed the playoffs since the year before Tim Duncan was drafted, netting 5 championships in the meanwhile. These last two seasons, since the retirement of our beloved Big Three, it has not seemed as reasonable or realistic to consider the Spurs a title contender, particularly with the departure of Kawhi Leonard and really seeing last season the talent gap between a player like Leonard and what we got back in DeRozan (again, not a knock on DeRozan, it's just how good Leonard really is).</div>
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Here are some observations that I have about our team:</div>
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1. Neither DeMar DeRozan nor LaMarcus Aldridge are viable as number 1 options on a competitive team. There's a sense where the Spurs now feel kind of like the Atlanta Hawks circa 2010 running it back year after year with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, both players that I really liked, but couldn't quite carry them over the top. In the playoffs year after year without much hope of getting out of the first or second round. Both DeRozan and Aldridge are great players, and while this season, with the West being much more competitive, Aldridge's need to play himself into a groove is a little concerning, neither has the talent, leadership, or temperament of a number 1 option on a title contending team. They come in, they do their work, and they play hard, but they can only carry a team so far. I think DeRozan understands that he needs to be the main man here, but he can't do it, at least not consistently enough to give the Spurs that sort of edge they would need in the playoffs. Both are great as the second or third star on a good team, but unfortunately, they are asked to shoulder a load that is perhaps a bit too much for them. That being said, I hope they prove me wrong, seven games into this season though, I have not seen that. Both can be the leading scorer on a team, but neither help in terms of being a rallying point that elevates the game of those around them. Neither has sufficient gravity and talent on the offense to generate the easy looks that enable less-talented players to thrive. While arguably Spurs haven't had that sort of player for a while, Aldridge and DeRozan don't seem to fit together with others well enough to create a sort of "greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts" machine that players like Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan were able to do once they were past their primes.</div>
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2. While the future of the Spurs may be in the hands of Derrick White and Dejounte Murray, neither is ready to take over as the go-to guy on the team. There is still enough inconsistency that the Spurs need some sort of stabilizing factor to sustain any sort of success. This is of course assuming that the Spurs' primarily still want to remain competitive without mortgaging the franchise's future. Maybe things change once Murray is off the minutes restriction, as he has had flashes that have shown greatness only to be cut short by Pop counting his floor time. I believe both White and Murray can become viable leaders on a competitive NBA team, but they aren't there yet.<br />
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3. Rudy Gay should not be anybody's Big 3. Gay has been great for us, but we are maybe 3-5 years too late on expecting Rudy Gay to be one of the cornerstones of a franchise. I love Rudy Gay and what he brings to the table, but he's best suited playing a Robert Horry/Boris Diaw utility role. He'll give you some big games, but we cannot bank on him to average 20+ points per game. If that's what it takes for us to win, we are in trouble.<br />
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4. We lack a defensive anchor. Individually, I think we have a lot of plus defenders. Murray and White seem like they are somewhere from above average to elite in terms of defense, Walker has shown flashes of being at least able to use his athleticism to the effectiveness of say Jonathan Simmons, Poeltl has shown to be an effective large body and rim protector, and both new additions Lyles and Carroll have demonstrated strong defensive instincts as has LaMarcus Aldridge. While they may not be great, Forbes, Mills, and even DeRozan have demonstrated a willingness to try and do what they can. <a href="https://www.poundingtherock.com/2019/11/6/20951556/a-defense-to-marcos-defense" target="_blank">I would argue even Marco Belinelli does that</a> (granted what he can do is severely limited). However, despite all this talent, the defense as a unit hasn't seemed to be there. I don't think it's that players aren't trying, it's that we don't have someone that really stabilizes the defense and is able to call out switches and see the oncoming offense from a broader perspective. Perhaps that's why they brought in Tim Duncan as a coach, to help develop that vision in the players, however, so far, that hasn't been the case. The effort has been there, but everyone seems to be focusing so hard on just their individual defensive assignments that when more complicated offenses come our way the defense sort of trips over itself because players aren't as aware of what's going on. While usually this job falls to the bigs (e.g. Aldridge and Poeltl) I'm not here to entirely just knock on them, what I am saying is that this is what made Tim Duncan such a great defender (that never won DPOY) and made the Spurs defense so stingy. That's something we don't have right now.<br />
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The biggest concern for me long-term obviously is the first issue. However, what we have to consider before even contemplating solutions is what exactly the Spurs' goals are. It seems that Popovich is not extraordinarily interested in doing a full-scale rebuild and wants to maintain a certain level of competitiveness while develop these younger players. While this might mean shorter leashes for the young guns (particularly Walker) and playing more well-known commodities that fans may not be as happy with (like Belinelli), if that is the case, the solution would be different if we were focusing more on long-term (e.g. the peaks of Murray and White). There are some calling for trading DeRozan, which I'm not opposed to. However, my biggest concern is the actual value of a player like DeRozan (high-usage, non-3 point shooter) is across the league. I frankly am not even sure we would get an All-Star level player in return (if there even is one to be had). Would we be that much better sending DeRozan back to Toronto for a Serge Ibaka or Marc Gasol (I doubt they would include OG in the trade so it'd include maybe a Stanley Johnson or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson)? to Chicago for an Otto Porter? We can label DeRozan a legitimate All-Star but what exactly is the demand for someone with his game? Some out there are pushing for a DeRozan-Hayward swap with Boston, which I wouldn't be opposed to except again, does it make us that much better? What's the incentive for Boston to make such a trade (I suppose we can rationalize the extension of Brown thus creating a logjam at the SF spot enabling DeRozan to shift back to SG)? Unfortunately, our best bet now is simply to wait and see.</div>
GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-88229006958931121212019-04-15T15:45:00.000-07:002019-04-15T15:45:13.320-07:00Looking forward and projecting the futureI know, I know, the playoffs are still in view. The Spurs won an exciting first game against the 2nd seeded Cinderella story of the Denver Nuggets. However, I think barring some miraculous sort of Finals run this year, there are some very real questions that the Spurs have to answer about their roster. It's probably not too early to start looking forward, though there is a lot of time in the offseason, I also do want to give a proper look at Pop and his stint these next two years with USA basketball. While I don't think that I have any concrete answers, I think it does help a little to air out some of the issues that we have. Personally, I don't think it's a chemistry issue as much as a roster construction issue. I don't think the issues in this iteration of the Spurs is intentional, but the way the season has played out, we find that there are indeed a number of question marks that we have going into the next season. And honestly, I'd much rather write about this than how the national media hates the Spurs (maybe I'm crazy, but it sure sounds like they're always rooting for the other team on national calls, I'm looking at you, Hubie).<br />
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<a name='more'></a><b>Skill Redundancy</b><br />
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Redundancy in and of itself is not a bad thing, however, at their best, arguably the three most important players on the Spurs roster (currently), in DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Rudy Gay, all sort of thrive in the same spots. This is not to say that they cannot coexist, but it makes spacing the floor a little tricky. So far, Aldridge, at least for the latter half of the season, has been the more consistent, go-to player. He's unconventional in the modern NBA in that his game (offensively) is built much more around the mold of PFs like Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace. While he has added a handful of post moves that help him become more Tim Duncan-like, what we notice immediately, is that the greatest success that his predecessors had (e.g. Garnett and Wallace) had were because they moved away from being the offensive lynch-pin to focusing more on their defense, which LaMarcus currently, while better than we anticipated, is not at that level of impacting the game. This in and of itself is not really the issue though. It is though, when the offense is his greatest asset and overlaps with the same strengths as his two other biggest co-stars and arguably even the budding younger players (e.g. Derrick White and Dejounte Murray) on the team.<br />
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DeRozan (like Aldridge and Gay) function well out of the mid-range, and you can see clearly that his mid-range heavy game is modeled after one Kobe Bryant. That's not a bad thing, but with a lack of 3 point shooting, the interior gets rather clogged when playing with a player like Aldridge, their spots are tremendously similar. While some might say that this season, he has attempted to defer too much, overpassing in some spots, and some (including myself) may call into question some of his late-game decision-making, we can't deny that overall as a playmaker, DeRozan is much better than advertised. However, similar to Aldridge's comparison to his predecessors, DeRozan lacks the versatility (e.g. 3 point shooting) and defensive tenacity (he's not bad, just not great) that Kobe had. If we look at Kobe's most successful seasons, he shared the floor with bigs that allowed him to go inside (Pau Gasol) or allowed him to operate out of the triple threat (Shaquille O'Neal), something that I think Aldridge can do both of, a little bit, but is not really part of his game yet. The biggest issue I think we've seen this year with DeRozan is that due to how the roster is constructed, Pop is forced to play DeRozan as effectively an SF all season. He's often asked to guard larger forwards and is often guarded by a bigger body, where he loses a lot of the advantages he normally has at the SG position. While we might be moving towards an era of position-less basketball, and frankly every team begins to start a slew of 6-7 to 6-9 long rangy wings across three positions, there are opportunities I think where if DeRozan is one of the smaller rather than one of the bigger (physically) players in the lineup, it would give the Spurs a bigger advantage. While there isn't much difference oftentimes between the SG and the SF positions, I think there is enough nuance where having a larger wing player (particularly a defender) on the floor would benefit the team greatly. With this understanding, we initially attempted to start Gay where he historically played prior to his Achilles injury, at SF. Unfortunately, that didn't work too well simply because Gay, lacking the explosion he used to have, cannot consistently guard faster wings, and offensively, Gay and DeRozan occupied much of the same space. While Gay's 3 point shooting has improved significantly, he still thrives in the mid-range, and with his redefined game has really thrived now, as a modern stretch-4.<br />
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Enter the potential/perceived skill-redundancy of our two starting caliber PGs, Derrick White and Dejounte Murray. This season was something of a blessing in disguise as the injury to Murray enabled White to flourish as a starting PG, and we were able to truly see the impact that he has on the floor. Since Murray hasn't played all season, projecting his play coming back from the injury is a little tricky. However, based on the previous season, I would say that while White is a solid defender, Murray is more impactful overall on the defensive game. That being said, White can do more on offense, making better decisions and shows more overall offensive polish than Dejounte. White is a much better "natural" or "traditional" PG than Murray despite whatever national pundits might say. As much as I want to say that White draws extremely favorable comparisons to one Chauncey Billups, I'll hedge my optimism right now and say that White is currently a much better version of Cory Joseph who hasn't reached his full potential yet. As intriguing defensively a backcourt of White and Murray might be, the challenges of this backcourt offensively, especially coupled with a 3 point shooting light lineup including both DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge doesn't seem like it would be the best idea in this situation.<br />
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After this comes the conundrum that is Bryn Forbes. While Bryn Forbes is a great player and a great story of an undrafted, undersized SG making it to become a starter in the NBA, there does seem to be a certain amount of skillset redundancy with particularly Patty Mills. Neither one is great on defense, which means that when both play together, it's something of a defensive nightmare. Furthermore, while Forbes probably can better create his own shot and thereby have a more tangible scoring impact on the game beyond 3 point shooting, Patty is steadier running an offense and understands how to better get his teammates involved. Pop has somehow made it work with both so far, but long-term this does not seem viable, especially if we want to improve defensively. Both are reasonable tertiary ball-handler/playmakers, with Patty having the distinct advantage, but even with solid team defense, both give up a lot (then throw in Belinelli) where it sometimes seems like too much has to go right for it to be worthwhile.<br />
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In discussing just the rotation players I have not even gotten to the question of Lonnie Walker IV, whose game looks like it could polish very well into something that requires the ball in his hands a lot, and probably has a large degree of overlap with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge.<br />
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<b>What do we need?</b><br />
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While the big man rotation currently consisting of some combination of Aldridge, Jakob Poeltl, and Gay (with occasionally Davis Bertans playing some stretch 4) seems somewhat thin, I think given the trend of the modern league, we're actually pretty set. We forget that back in 2015 the Spurs did draft Serbian big man Nikola Milutinov, a 6-11 center who currently plays for former Cleveland coach David Blatt on Olympiacos BC. averaging 11.7 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. I was also impressed enough with Drew Eubanks to say that perhaps we give him a bit of a shot, or see if Chimezie Metu can develop into a Serge Ibaka type of center. Perhaps also late season addition, Donatas Motiejunas will become a mainstay. In conclusion, I think we have a lot of options moving forward in our big man rotation. While perhaps not the biggest names on the market say like an Anthony Davis or Karl-Anthony Towns, I think we're pretty okay in the frontcourt.<br />
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The one place that I think worries me the most is perimeter defense. The losses of Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Kyle Anderson has left us tremendously undersized out on the perimeter, and the talent we have, lacks that significant perimeter defensive presence that has helped keep the Spurs relevant for the past two decades. Granted, LaMarcus Aldridge is no Tim Duncan defensively, but he has been doing a lot to keep us at least afloat defensively. While the defensive capabilities of Derrick White and Dejounte Murray help significantly, there is one thing they lack when it comes to defending the key players in the league, namely, LeBron James and Kevin Durant, and that is size. While I like the size and strength of Murray, DeRozan, and Walker, I think there is a limitation to who they can defend. We really don't have anyone that can feasibly stay with a dynamic larger forward that can dribble, and while there is only one LeBron and one Kevin Durant, I would imagine others in that mold, say like Tobias Harris or even athletic guys like Paul George or even Aaron Gordon, when they are on, we lack the personnel to contain. While Kyle Anderson lack speed, he understood well how to use his length to bother opponents. Green and Leonard were just that good on defense. While Derrick White has done an admirable job with the major defensive assignments he's drawn this season, we see that this isn't a long term solution. Thus, we, like everyone else, is looking for that solid 3-and-D player that has the size to defend a Kevin Durant but can also hit a 3 consistently enough to not be a complete liability on offense (like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist). Certainly, one solution is to land a dynamic scorer who forces defenses to adjust, but at the same time, we someone we can simply put on the other team's best player. Perhaps in the future that becomes Dejounte Murray, but currently, this is the issue that we have. Naturally, having this player also enables us to move DeRozan to his more natural position of SG and gives us a more tangible advantage there. Maybe Davis Bertans turns into a stellar defensive player. However, currently, this is the major need I see. Naturally, landing this player then begs the question of playing time and rotations, as we'd like to see White and Murray both get their deserved playing time, but playing them together, unless they both develop effective jumpshots that are consistent enough for opposing teams to have to respect, it's a tough challenge to find space for both of them, plus DeRozan, plus Aldridge (plus Gay/Poeltl) in the offense.<br />
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Sort of reminds me of 2011 when we started George Hill next to Tony Parker and ran them with Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, and Tim Duncan. We made it work, but it was not ideal.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-46721003797358276752019-03-08T12:54:00.004-08:002019-03-08T12:54:58.967-08:00The Modern Era is Catching up with the SpursWrote a post at Pounding the Rock. Find it <a href="https://www.poundingtherock.com/2019/3/8/18256617/the-modern-era-is-catching-up-to-the-spurs?_ga=2.250910977.645356354.1552075251-62797546.1552075251" target="_blank">here</a>.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-34829504968594125752019-02-26T08:26:00.001-08:002019-02-26T08:26:20.446-08:00Panicking at the ProcessNormally, when I post here, it's all about unfettered optimism, looking at the silver lining and bright spots in regards to the Spurs. However, given their 1-7 Rodeo Road Trip there seems to be little to look forward to in regards to the Spurs' prospect. As The Starters' analyst Trey Kerby asked, "Are you telling me that both LeBron and the Spurs will miss the playoffs in the same season?" While it seems unlikely, it is still entirely within the realm of possibility given the difficulty of the West and the tightness between the 7-10 seeds. As it stands, Spurs are 8th, one game behind the Clippers in both the win and loss columns (3 games behind the Jazz in the loss column for 6th seed), only 2 games ahead of Sacramento in the win column and a decent 5 games ahead of both the Timberwolves and the Lakers (4 in the win, 2 in the loss). The season certainly is not lost, Derrick White is back as is DeMar DeRozan's shooting, and LaMarcus Aldridge has maintained his aggression, so let's take a back and forth look at how things are panning out for the Spurs right now.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>Let's start with the bad news first shall we?<br />
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<b>Reasons to Panic</b><br />
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1. Lack of individual defensive talent<br />
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In the last two seasons, the loss of talented individual defenders such as Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Kyle Anderson, and Tim Duncan have left big question marks in regards to how the Spurs can regain the defensive identity that won them five titles in the last 20 years. Of course, we can narrow the window to simply last season where Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green were traded for DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl, Kyle Anderson and Tony Parker left for other teams and Manu Ginobili retired, and while not a major cog, I personally was sad that they let Brandon Paul walk as well. These mainstays were later replaced with Marco Belinelli, Dante Cunningham, Quincy Pondexter, and draft prospects Lonnie Walker IV and Chimezie Metu. These additions came with the expected development of young players such as Bryn Forbes, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Davis Bertans, while retaining the veteran talent of Patty Mills, Rudy Gay, and Pau Gasol.<br />
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I came into the season confident that while there would be a drop off in defense, Pop will somehow make it work, as he did with less than stellar defensive players like David Lee and Tony Parker. However, what that undersold was:<br />
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a) the defensive efficacy of individual elite defenders from Bruce Bowen to Tim Duncan to Kawhi Leonard to even Stephen Jackson and Danny Green (and George Hill).<br />
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Even then, those defensive liabilities were surrounded by at worst, defensively above average or at least defensively neutral players such as Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Kyle Anderson, or Manu Ginobili.<br />
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While LaMarcus Aldridge is on his way to becoming a high level defender, I don't know if he can become the elite defensive game changer that Tim Duncan was, and it would be unfair to ask him to be so. There are times when DeMar DeRozan is locked in defensively and uses his strength and athleticism to come up with big steals, but that's really not the reason we brought him in, and we don't expect him to be the next Kawhi Leonard, shutting people down. And while Rudy Gay can look like the best defender on the floor at times, we have to realize that while it may be more frequent that Boris Diaw accomplished the feat, it is still only at times. Certainly, Dejounte Murray fits that bill, but he is out with a season ending injury, the next best bet has been Derrick White.<br />
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b) the overall lack of defensive ability or awareness of core players.<br />
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Marco and Pau are not going to wow people defensively, especially not anymore. We knew that coming in. While Patty and Bryn try, there is still a lack of size and ability there. Thus, it's only logical that when Pop runs a small three guard lineup with Marco, Patty, and Bryn, they become a huge defensive liability.<br />
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c) the inconsistency of the offense as a trade off.<br />
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Our defense got is into the playoffs last season right? So let's fix our offense this season. Unfortunately, over the past couple of games, our plethora of sharpshooters (Belinelli, Mills, Forbes, Bertans) could not seem to get anything to fall. While the tenacity is there, when the shots aren't falling the lack of defense on the other end (regardless of who is in the frontcourt) really kills us.<br />
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d) a lack of consistent playmaking.<br />
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While Forbes and Bertans have shown that they're better than advertised at putting the ball on the floor and DeRozan has demonstrated his more than willing and able to pass the ball, the reality is that outside of Derrick White, we don't really have a real point guard. Patty has the experience, but like Forbes is ideally situated as a shooter. He often was played next to Manu who would then be the primary playmaker. Thus, without an higher level playmaker, the concept of utilizing more defensive minded players such as Pondexter or Cunningham becomes a non-starter because they give up so much offensively.<br />
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2. Positional Redundancy<br />
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As mentioned above, we have a lot of shooters, but not really a lot of play making. Bryn Forbes, while he's a great story and I like him, has shown himself to be at best a Gary Neal type player, which, honestly, if Derrick White is hitting a reasonable number of threes (say like 37-38%) I don't think really adds a whole lot while forcing us to give up a lot defensively. Instead of playing Forbes we could start bigger with both Gay and Bertans, sliding DeRozan back to his natural SG position, or slot in defense by going back to starting Cunningham as a poor man's Bruce Bowen, hoping that White and DeRozan's playmaking as well as Aldridge's improved awareness passing out of double-teams would help Cunningham's inability to create offense for himself. Of course that still doesn't resolve the problem of the bench, where we have Mills and Belinelli already, and adding Forbes to that mix may be problematic, especially defensively, as we've seen over the past couple of games. While the sample size is small, Lonnie Walker IV may be the solution to that. We are defensively bad enough that Pop is moving to a zone, and even then, we're still getting lost.<br />
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Offensively, while I think they are two of our better players, I have to question the fit between particularly DeMar DeRozan and Derrick White. A lot of times it feels like they are just taking turns, and while they are both good at what they do, I have to wonder if their games don't overlap too much. Tack on the game of Rudy Gay, and this becomes an even bigger question.<br />
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3. Leadership<br />
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Who is this team looking to in the locker room? While Pop is a great coach, I think at the end of the day they need a leader in the locker room and they might not have that right now. Aldridge and DeRozan both appear to be relatively low-key in their approach with their teammates, and frankly, DeRozan's frustration at the officiating sometimes takes him out of games. Granted, I think he has good reason to be frustrated, but at the same time, it removes him from being a factor late in games at times. Thus, Patty Mills is at all of the captain's meetings. I love Patty's heart and passion, but at some point in time one of the "stars" (Aldridge, Gay, DeRozan) has to step up.<br />
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<b>Reasons for Hope</b><br />
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1. The emergence of Derrick White<br />
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White has emerged quietly as one of the better play makers and arguably the best perimeter defender (consistently) in a Spurs uniform this season. His shooting is good enough where playing him with Dejounte Murray (who also hopefully develops a shot) will not be an issue. He's becoming quietly a second George Hill, who is a low key, low-maintenance type of player who solidly makes his team better. While there are some offensive question marks with the stars of the Spurs when White is on the floor, we can't deny how much better the Spurs defense looks when he is playing.<br />
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2. The tenacity of Davis Bertans<br />
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Bertans may never have the size or strength of a Tiago Splitter, but he's demonstrated some of that grit that is akin to <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/matt-bonner-chumbawamba-dwight-howard-defense-spurs-lakers-164404732--nba.html?y20=1" target="_blank">Matt Bonner's Chumbawamba Defense</a>. Even when his shot isn't falling, he is working hard at the defensive end to try to make the biggest impact he can on the game. This to me is what sets him apart from the other shooters, perhaps it's a perception thing, some people don't like they're trying (Belinelli) and some people look like they just don't have the tools (Forbes), while Davis has demonstrated both the effort and the tools to be effective defensively.<br />
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3. Home cooking<br />
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12 of our remaining 20 games are at the AT&T Center, which is good, because the Spurs are 22-7 at home. If that continues to play out, then we should win at least 9 of those 12 and hopefully pick up a couple of road wins to win more than half of those 20 to keep in the playoff picture.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-6904873948951949102018-08-06T08:44:00.000-07:002018-08-06T08:44:07.970-07:00Unfettered Optimism: Truly the Start of a new EraIt's hard to look last season's <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/07/san-antonio-spurs-kawhi-leonard-trade-rumors-injury-weird-bizarre" target="_blank">drama with Kawhi Leonard</a> subsequently concluding with <a href="https://www.nba.com/spurs/spurs-obtain-demar-derozan-jakob-poeltl-and-first-round-pick-raptors-exchange-kawhi-leonard-and" target="_blank">his being traded with Danny Green to Toronto for DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, and a protected 2019 pick</a> as having any sort of positive. I mean, you just lost a legitimate two-way star that was a two-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year and finals MVP, not to mention close runner up for MVP when he was healthy and playing. The loss of arguably one of the premier perimeter defenders in Danny Green as well is a tough pill to swallow, but given the situation, changes were necessary. Despite being one of the premier defensive squads in the league (1st in opponents points allowed per game at 99.8 and 3rd in overall defensive rating of 104.8) they were dismal on the other end (27th in points per game at 102.7, 17th overall offensive rating at 107.9). While the common belief was that the return of Kawhi Leonard as our number 1 option would solve much of our offensive woes, it became painfully clear that outside of LaMarcus Aldridge we had no effective go-to third option, no way of generating offense when we needed it. We got open shots, but we can't hit them, and frankly, we had trouble creating offense.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>With now also the <a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2018/07/23/charlotte-hornets-officially-sign-tony-parker-release" target="_blank">exit of Tony Parker</a> it truly feels like the end of an era. Since as per usual, we know absolutely nothing about the plans of Manu Ginobili, we can simply hope for the best that the 40-year old Argentinian veteran will return for one more season. Now while we're not sure what the final roster will look like, we do know that the Spurs made some major additions, though we did lose a number of players:<br />
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Key Additions: DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, Dante Cunningham, Marco Belinelli, Lonnie Walker IV, Chimezie Metu<br />
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Key Losses: Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Kyle Anderson, Brandon Paul, Joffrey Lauvergne<br />
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We also made a note to bring back Rudy Gay, Davis Bertans, and Bryn Forbes. While we're uncertain if Manu Ginobili is coming back, given the trade for a win-now type player like DeMar DeRozan, it seems likely that Pop would want to keep as a veteran with corporate knowledge in house, especially to mold the likes of young prospects like Lonnie Walker IV. With now a guard heavy rotation it'll already be a challenge to see where second-year guard like Derrick White will get playing time. We do have to figure out whether or not Dejounte Murray's shot and play-making have improved, which will determine how much Pop will rely on Patty Mills, which, given our guard rotation, is not really something I extraordinarily want to rely on, though perhaps, that's what they're grooming Bryn Forbes for.<br />
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Enter the Spurs' big problem. Well, it's two problems actually. First is the glut of guards who need playing time: Murray, White, Mills, Forbes, Walker IV, and this is just thinking about the PG spot, which is to say, this is not including the SG playing time which includes competition for time with the likes of DeRozan, Ginobili, and maybe even Belinelli. Coupled with that remains the loss of size and thus defense on the wings. Certainly, the loss of their best perimeter defenders, arguably two of the best perimeter defenders in the league, hurts a lot. That being said, it is difficult to swallow that the only true SF size players (i.e. players who can guard Kevin Durant) are Rudy Gay and Dante Cunningham, means that there might be a lot of playing small, with the likes of Ginobili, Belinelli, and maybe even Murray or DeRozan at the three spot, which works for playing small, but ultimately, is really not ideal. Maybe I'm just being old-school, but I kind of feel like having that sort of size might matter. This does mean though, that we have some promising prospects in our guard rotation, however, it does leave our frontcourt somewhat thin.<br />
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Certainly, I anticipate playing a lot of small ball, with Rudy at the 4 and LaMarcus Aldridge at the 5, however, I'm not entirely certain that three guards from the roster we have will necessarily be ideal, unless Walker and/or DeRozan are more effective defensively than we originally thought (particularly if one of the guards is Mills).<br />
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With that, I am optimistic about the development and potential of our younger core players, namely, I want to see what Chip Engelland is doing with Dejounte Murray's jump shot, how the Spurs can develop the physical tools of Lonnie Walker IV, and finally how Davis Bertans can thrive with more playing time. Despite the failure of their pairing in Toronto, for some reason, I am also optimistic about how Pop can get a lineup featuring Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan to work. I think we might see a resurgence of Rudy Gay as a borderline All-Star type player. Between Gay, DeRozan, and Aldridge, spacing feels like it might be an issue, but I think Pop can figure out a way to work it out. I am optimistic that Poeltl and Cunningham will somehow become household Spurs names through their contributions (like Gary Neal, Roger Mason, Dewayne Dedmon, Cory Joseph, etc...), I am optimistic that Marco Belinelli will come back and fit in fairly seamlessly as a Manu-lite type player to help provide some play-making, and finally, I am just excited to have this Kawhi Leonard drama over and done with.<br />
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Will we make the playoffs? I don't know, it's hard to say, but winning 47 games en-route to a first round bounce by the champion Golden State Warriors on nothing but defense and LaMarcus Aldridge jumpers leads me to think that we have a fair shot.<br />
<br />GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-41732813457652059172017-10-26T16:17:00.002-07:002017-10-26T16:17:18.114-07:00This is Why We Signed Rudy GayLast night in a win over the Miami Heat, Rudy Gay scored 22 points in 26 minutes on 6-8 shooting (with a 9-11 outing at the charity stripe) as the San Antonio Spurs went on a 32-13 run to close out what was a high-octane shootout with what both coaches (Gregg Popovich and Erik Spoelstra) would consider sub-par (read: abysmal) defense. I'd like to note that 15 of Gay's 22 points came during that 32 point Spurs run at the end of the game.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>I remember way back when there was supposed be a club of players that would average a block, a steal, and a three in every game. I remember Rasheed Wallace was supposed to be the face of that club. I also remember thinking that Rudy Gay could be a part of that club. Rudy Gay has kind of been on my radar since his Connecticut Huskies beat Brandon Roy's Washington Huskies in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 round way back in 2006. I only remember this because it was one of the few NCAA basketball games I ever watched, being a Washington student at the time. Despite Gay eliminating my school from the tournament, I grew to root for him as a player when he entered the league. I always felt he got something of a bad rap when they started using him as the analytics poster boy for inefficient basketball. To be fair, they weren't completely wrong, but since that stigma followed him from Memphis to Toronto and ultimately to Sacramento, I think people don't quite realize the progress in efficiency that he's made, especially in Sacramento.<br />
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It's only been four games but Gay is averaging a nice 14.8 points on 57.9% shooting in San Antonio. Pop understands how to put Gay in positions to be successful. Perhaps he's lost a little bit of bounce coming back from an Achilles tendon injury, but it's not enough to really show in his game. He's still getting to his spots on offense and without Kawhi Leonard or Tony Parker on the floor, he's demonstrated that he can be a guy that can create a shot off the dribble. While he did cough up the ball 3 times against Miami, he also recorded 4 assists and a couple of steals. I think as he gets more familiar with the offense the turnovers will drop off. Certainly, there's going to be even more adjustment when Kawhi Leonard returns, but with what Gay has shown us in the early part of the season so far, it seems really promising that our lineups will be even more effective than last season.<br />
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At the end of the 3rd quarter and into the 4th Gay dazzled with a flurry of turnarounds and post moves, understanding how to use his length and athleticism against the Heat defense that seemed to just stop trying, or maybe just couldn't do anything about it. Either way, if yesterday is any indication, the Gay signing is a coup.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-68827973931953121302017-10-24T11:15:00.001-07:002017-10-24T11:15:46.104-07:00Unfettered Optimism: Spurs Start StrongThe 2017-2018 season has begun, and the Spurs are 3-0. Of course they are, they're the Spurs. Did I mention that they are playing without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker? Who cares? There's always a bit of excitement to start out a new season and this season is no different, in fact, there may be more buzz, despite the prediction of an inevitable fourth Golden State Warriors/Cleveland Cavaliers showdown in the NBA Finals. But the season is young and anything can happen, and I certainly like what I'm seeing so far from the other guys and the hope is that we'll get better when Kawhi and Tony come back. Here are three things I'm super excited about.<div>
<a name='more'></a><b>1. Beast-mode LMA</b></div>
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It's only 3 games, but LaMarcus Aldridge is ballin'. So far he's averaging 24.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. All of this on 45.9% shooting. Now, granted, without Kawhi, Aldridge warrants 20+ shot attempts per game, but watching the games, there is a patented difference, and I think we all agree that Aldridge could have averaged more than 14 shots per game in his previous two seasons in San Antonio. It seems like the well-documented (for Spurs' standards) <a href="https://www.poundingtherock.com/2017/10/18/16501554/popovich-lamarcus-aldridge-tried-change-san-antonio-spurs" target="_blank">chat that Aldrdige had with Popovich</a> is working, enough for the front office to be comfortable enough to hand him an extension. The renewed focus on getting Aldridge involved in the offense however, is not a return to Portland LaMarcus, where the ball is thrown into the post and dribbling for four seconds. LaMarcus looks comfortable with the ball and is really intentional about all of his moves, he's learning some of that efficiency of motion that Kawhi Leonard has. He's decisive and aggressive with the ball, making the right attack or the right pass (I mean 3.3 assists!).</div>
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<b>2. DeJounte is the real deal</b></div>
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The measurements of DeJounte Murray are pretty crazy considering he's a point guard. His Draft Express profile lists him at 6'5" with a 6'9" wingspan, though Sean Elliott keeps saying 7-foot wingspan. Regardless, that's long. He kind of came to notice across the league last season when he was thrust into the starting role after Tony Parker's quadriceps injury. Spurs fans however, have been drooling at when this lanky Jamal Crawford protege would take the next step. It seems like it will be sooner rather than later. Over the last three games he's averaging 13.3 points, 9.7 (that's not a typo) rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game on 56.7% (again not a typo) shooting. Despite my penchant to compare poor shooting point guards to Tony Parker, I think there really is merit to that comparison in this instant. Murray has shown to be aggressive and fearless in going to the rim. He's not quite as fearless about contact as Tony is, opting for floaters a little further from the rim, but he's got the length to get around a lot of defenders. If Chip Engelland can do with Murray what he did with Parker, starting with that pull up jumper off the screen, he'll be scary. He's already better defensively than Tony Parker just with his focus and length, getting all into those passing lanes (1.3 steals per game).</div>
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<b>3. Danny Green is still really good on defense</b></div>
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Last season was a poor shooting season for Danny, which translates to 37.9% from three. However, I take comfort that a "poor shooting season" for Danny is still better than the 3 point shooting for the entire Timberwolves' starting lineup from last season. Andrew Wiggins shot 35.6%; Jimmy Butler, 36.7%; Karl-Anthony Towns, 36.7%; Jeff Teague, 35.7%; and Taj Gibson didn't shoot any 3's. As we saw in the first game spacing was an issue there. Danny, so far, is back up to 41.2% shooting from beyond the arc this season, but what's giving him value is the thing that he's been doing quietly ever since he became a starter on the Spurs, defense. He's averaging 1 steal and 2.3, yes 2.3! blocks per game so far. He got 5 in that last game against Toronto. Just watching him, he's just great at knowing where players are going to move the ball in their shot, which makes him a dangerous transition defender. He also looks very comfortable putting the ball on the floor now. He's not going to cross anyone up, but he can get to the rim. If he can maintain his career average 40% from beyond the arc, I think Spurs will be extra scary.</div>
GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-68409596779759602802017-08-17T16:41:00.004-07:002017-08-17T16:41:59.551-07:00The Big Question for the Spurs in 2017With the summer winding down and the start of the NBA 2017-2018 regular season fast approaching, we find the Spurs in something of an interesting holding pattern. Fairly or unfairly so, LaMarcus Aldridge in a Spurs uniform has been considered a general disappointment, especially after his general disappearance in the playoffs following the season ending ankle injury to Kawhi Leonard. As summer progressed it became rumored that Aldridge and the Spurs were unhappy with one another, even going as far as having the Spurs reportedly <a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2017/06/22/san-antonio-spurs-reportedly-looking-trade-top-10-2017-draft" target="_blank">offering Aldridge for a 1st round draft pick</a>. Since the draft, nothing really league shaking has happened. The Spurs made two savvy draft picks with the 29th and 59th picks in the 2017 NBA Draft in <a href="https://www.poundingtherock.com/2017/6/23/15860098/nba-draft-results-san-antonio-spurs-colorado-shooting-guard-derrick-white" target="_blank">Derrick White</a> and <a href="https://www.poundingtherock.com/2017/6/23/15862128/nba-draft-results-get-to-know-san-antonio-spurs-second-round-pick-jaron-blossomgame" target="_blank">Jaron Blossomgame</a>. The Spurs quietly <a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2017/07/06/san-antonio-spurs-sign-rudy-gay" target="_blank">signed Rudy Gay</a> and <a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2017/08/04/san-antonio-spurs-re-sign-patty-mills" target="_blank">re-signed Patty Mills</a>, <a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2017/07/18/manu-ginobili-return-san-antonio-spurs" target="_blank">Manu Ginobili</a>, and <a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2017/07/24/san-antonio-spurs-re-sign-pau-gasol" target="_blank">Pau Gasol</a>. With the injury to Tony Parker <a href="https://www.poundingtherock.com/2017/5/29/15710276/spurs-tony-parker-injury-return-comeback" target="_blank">leaving him out until 2018</a>, one of the big questions for the Spurs is the development of 2nd year point guard Dejounte Murray, who performed admirably during the playoffs after Parker ruptured his quadriceps tendon in the 2nd round against the Rockets.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>Relatively speaking, the summer (as with most summers) was not particularly league-shaking for the Spurs. Not with all the hype around Lonzo Ball, the possible emergence of the 76ers with the signing of J.J. Redick and drafting of Markelle Fultz, the movement of some of the best two-way players in the league (Paul George to OKC, Jimmy Butler to Minnesota, and Gordon Hayward to Boston), Chris Paul being traded for 60% of the Rockets' bench, the drama behind Carmelo Anthony, the only real big news still circulating the league that the Spurs are involved with is <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/2017/8/16/16156054/kyrie-irving-spurs-trade-rumors-cavs-kawhi-leonard-tony-parker-injury" target="_blank">the desire of Kyrie Irving to be traded to the Spurs</a>. While I think Kyrie is an amazing player, potentially one of the top 5 point guards in the league, I may be in the small minority in saying that I don't think Kyrie is worth both Danny Green and LaMarcus Aldirdge. One of them plus some pieces, sure, though the money would be tricky, but not both of them. However, speculating about the possible acquisition of Kyrie Irving is not the question I want to ask.<br />
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Neither is it the potential of Dejounte Murray, the development of Davis Bertans, or the potential major free agent signing of 2018 (be it Paul George or LeBron James or someone else).I'm not even super interested in discussing the potential of Derrick White and Jaron Blossomgame. What I think is the most interesting question for the Spurs in 2017 is who will be the diamond in the rough?<br />
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Certainly we might consider Rudy Gay something of a reclamation project akin to Boris Diaw, or even Stephen Jackson, but I think one of the more intriguing story-lines of the Spurs has always been the player that no one had on their radar that is brought out of anonymity into national attention because of his success within the Spurs' system. Last season it was Jonathon Simmons, for his defense on James Harden when Kawhi Leonard was injured in the playoff series against the Houston Rockets and of course for the chase down block of Stephen Curry and 20 point game on opening night against the Golden State Warriors. Some made a name as a Spur and subsequently got a big contract like Boban Marjanovic, Aron Baynes, and Gary Neal, others played some with the Spurs and went on to become regular rotation piece in another franchise like JaMychal Green or Garrett Temple, others drifted around and didn't really experience much success until being on the Spurs like DeWayne Dedmon and Marco Belinelli.<br />
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Thus, the question is who is that standout this year that Pop will go to? Perhaps Bryn Forbes, who had been given the green light in Summer League and subsequently put on a scoring clinic, perhaps this is the year Kyle Anderson FINALLY takes that next step forward, maybe it will be Brandon Paul, the unknown point guard that has been playing abroad, or perhaps it is the French big man Joffrey Lauvergne. Who knows? Maybe they make a last minute training camp roster addition that sticks. To me, this is what I'm most interested in seeing this season fro the Spurs.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-84831519010346029782017-07-20T20:49:00.003-07:002017-07-20T20:49:44.684-07:00Unfettered Optimism: Summer SigningsI believe that Spurs have made most of the moves that they're going to make. If we assume that the imminent signings of <a href="http://www.ksat.com/sports/nba/spurs/manu-ginobili-return-san-antonio-spurs" target="_blank">Manu Ginobili</a> and <a href="https://airalamo.com/2017/07/18/san-antonio-spurs-rumors-pau-gasol-contract-talks/" target="_blank">Pau Gasol</a> then most of the signings are pretty much complete, at least as far as I can see in terms of the main players on the roster. Granted, there might be a few more signings or people that surprise during training camp. Here's where I see the roster as the season begins:<br />
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PG - Patty Mills, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Tony Parker<br />
SG - Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Brandon Paul<br />
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Kyle Anderson<br />
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge, Davis Bertans<br />
C - Pau Gasol, Joffrey Lauvergne<br />
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Officially, Bryn Forbes (who has been lighting up the Summer League) and 2nd round pick Jaron Blossomgame have not yet signed contracts with the team, but to be honest, I've never been 100% convinced about Bryn Forbes. He has the ability to be a Roger Mason or Gary Neal type player at best and frankly Patty Mills works out better. I also am not sure what exactly will happen with Adam Hanga joining at least training camp, hopefully he'll pan out slightly better than Livio Jean-Charles.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>Without any major trades (<a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2721513-tyson-chandler-trade-to-spurs-for-jonathon-simmons-reportedly-nixed" target="_blank">especially with the Jonathon Simmons for Tyson Chandler trade falling through</a>) the one thing that I can see is that Pop is moving slowly towards a predominantly small ball lineup. The primary acquisition that I'm really excited about is Rudy Gay. While I agree he might not be a max type player, for the mid-level exception I think Gay is actually quite a bargain. Of course, there is the issue of his injured Achilles tendon, but looking at all the players that have returned to it, I think he favorably stacks up closer to Dominique Wilkins's situation that Kobe's, meaning, I'm optimistic that he returns perhaps not to peak performance but close enough for it to count.<br />
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While Gay is not All NBA defense materials, I think that within the team defense schemes that Pop draws up will showcase some of his above-average defensive abilities, similar to what happened with LaMarcus Aldridge. With less of the scoring load to worry about, Gay will have the ability to thrive as a secondary/tertiary option depending on who he's playing with. I actually rather like him as a secondary scorer given where I see <a href="http://fundamentally-sound.blogspot.com/2017/05/the-beginning-of-post-duncan-big-three.html" target="_blank">LaMarcus playing out</a> (see no. 2). While many people remember Rudy Gay for his inefficient shooting in Memphis and Toronto, I prefer to look at his recent years in Sacramento, where he played and thrived under a strong system coach (for a little bit in Mike Malone) and played as a secondary option behind DeMarcus Cousins. Not to say that the Kings are a great blueprint to follow, but I think in this case it is a good example of how Rudy Gay can be successful in a system.<br />
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While I do enjoy the idea of Spurs playing big with Gay at the 3 and Kawhi at the 2, the likely scenario we'll see a lot of Gay in is as a stretch 4 position and as the primary backup to Kawhi. It can't be denied that he's a significant improvement over Kyle Anderson and will be more reliable that a 40 year old Manu Ginobili (don't get me wrong, I do love Manu, but he is 40). To be fair, with the way the league is moving, Gay's length and size enable him to guard a variety of positions effectively for spurts if not consistently (at least as consistently as say Boris Diaw). I can see a long lineup of Danny Green, Kawhi, Gay, and LaMarcus tacked on with either Murray, Mills, or Manu creating a good amount of havoc in general.<br />
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Outside of Rudy Gay the other signings confirmed are 1st round pick Derrick White, Summer League journeyman Brandon Paul, and backup center Joffrey Lauvergne. I don't expect much from these signings, with the exception perhaps of Derrick White, who shows flashes of being more of what the Spurs are looking for than Bryn Forbes, a solid shooting combo guard who is solid at defense and can competently run an offense safely.<br />
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Overall, I think , coupled with the continued development of Dejounte Murray, Davis Bertans, and even Kawhi Leonard, I think we're taking steps. Beyond that, we're also maintaining favorable cap flexibility for the lucrative 2018 free agent class.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-55258797714879139832017-06-28T14:01:00.001-07:002017-06-28T14:01:19.443-07:00Reacting to summer trades so far...Summer is here and that means all the speculation, trades, and reshuffling the NBA goes through during the summer. The draft has occurred and I'll put out a post regarding my thoughts on the Spurs' draft picks, though there's not much to say, they made smart picks with their typical late 1st round and 2nd round picks. However, this post will be about the two major trades that have happened so far. Granted, every team is still trying to see if they can land Paul George and/or Gordon Hayward.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><b><a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2017/06/22/report-chicago-bulls-trade-jimmy-butler-minnesota-timberwolves" target="_blank">Jimmy Butler rejoins Tom Thibodeau</a></b><br />
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More importantly than Jimmy Butler rejoining Thibs in Minnesota, is the fact that he joins two #1 overall picks with #1 overall pick talents in Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. The details of the trade are pretty straight-forward, Jimmy Butler and the 16th overall pick (<a href="http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Justin-Patton-7310/" target="_blank">the 7'0" Creighton center Justin Patton</a>) for Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, and the 7th overall pick (<a href="http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Lauri-Markkanen-73519/" target="_blank">the 7'0" Arizona power forward Lauri Markkanen</a>). While we could discuss how Chicago is now rebuilding, I'd like to examine more closely the impact this has on the Western Conference, namely how does this affect the Minnesota Timberwolves.<br />
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The likely T'Wolves starting lineup will be Ricky Rubio, Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Gorgui Dieng. Butler, Wiggins, and Towns already create a deadly two-way combination from SG to PF. Beyond that, Rubio and Dieng, I believe are solid starters and I believe somewhat underrated defensively. Rubio can help set up the offense and passes well, getting others involved. Tyus Jones is a solid backup and we can see if they retain Shabazz Muhammad, Omri Casspi, and Brandon Rush, even as they continue to develop Nemanja Bjelica and begin to develop Justin Patton. This starting five, I believe matches up well against that of Golden State in this year's championship run, especially given that I believe either Butler or Wiggins to be much more offensively versatile than a player like Klay Thompson.<br />
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The biggest concern for Minnesota is the depth. Normally, this wouldn't be a huge concern given the age of their stars and key players, however, given Tom Thibodeau's history with running players into the ground (see: Luol Deng and Joakim Noah), not having talent that can keep or extend leads built by their stellar starters may come back to bite them in the future. Let's see if Thibs, as President of Basketball Operations, can work with GM Scott Layden to get solid backups, and if Thibs, as the head coach, will provide his starters with sufficient rest to be fresh and primed for an off-season run.<br />
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<b><a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-clippers-agree-trade-chris-paul-rockets-154013456.html" target="_blank">Chris Paul leaves the Clippers</a></b><br />
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This is the most recent and biggest news. The Spurs were the popular name to toss about in the Chris Paul sweepstakes, but were said to not have gone all-in to woo Paul given the potential return of Tony Parker. Which, frankly, I entirely agree with. I won't be going into the whole speculation on <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2718611-chris-paul-doc-rivers-reportedly-clashed-over-austin-rivers-carmelo-anthony" target="_blank">Paul's disagreements with Doc Rivers</a>. Perhaps that led to CP3's exit from LA, they did manage to find a trade partner in Houston, landing Patrick Beverley, Louis Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker, and a bunch of non-guaranteed deals (and some cash).<br />
<br />
Certainly, Houston will continue to pursue more talent, having gutted a large portion of its depth to land Chris Paul. While Chris Paul and James Harden make a potent backcourt combination, I do have my doubts as to whether or not Coach of the Year Mike D'Antoni can really integrate the two of them together. Let's be honest, even in D'Antoni's high octane offense, he only really ever utilized a single ball-handler, who dominated the ball so much that even mediocre ball-handlers like Shawn Marion wanted more touches. Both Chris Paul and James Harden demand the ball in their hands. Certainly, having both Harden and Paul on the floor wouldn't enable defenses to hone in on Harden, who seems to have a tendency to wilt under pressure, particularly in the playoffs whereas CP3 tends to shine under pressure.<br />
<br />
The question I have is simply this, how will Mike D'Antoni design plays for either CP3 or James Harden off-ball. I'm not saying that this will be as catastrophic as the Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry pairing in 2008 with Isiah Thomas, but I'm not convinced that either (particularly James Harden) will be engaged enough to play well off-ball. If giving the ball to James Harden is the solution to his engagement, I don't know how you can consider CP3 anything other than a glorified Patrick Beverley; a strong defender and stabilizing locker-room presence. Granted, we'll have to see if they can indeed land a third star, but also to what lengths will they gut their depth to do so, will they trade 6th Man of the Year Eric Gordon? Will anyone want an injured Nene Hilario? Will they give up defensive stalwart Trevor Ariza and/or Clint Capela, who had a break out year?<br />
<br />
While I'm sure Daryl Morey knows much more than I do, and is always willing to make a bold move to improve the roster, I'm not really sure that Chris Paul was really the improvement that the Rockets needed. Patrick Beverly played well, and I don't deny that a secondary play-maker might be needed. However, I believe that the weakest link was not Beverly but rather Ryan Anderson, specifically his defense, which was exposed when Nene got hurt and D'Antoni was forced to rely on Anderson as a backup to Capela. Coupled with Ariza, whose defense is largely built on reputation now more than ability, so some would say, gutting the Rockets for CP3 and potentially gutting it further for another star may be only slightly less disastrous than Brooklyn's mortgaging of its future for Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett.<br />
<br />
Maybe they'll prove me wrong.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-16337429685873931872017-06-21T15:08:00.001-07:002017-06-21T15:08:12.916-07:00Looking at Positional Needs: Assessing Wing Depth<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking at the Spurs this off-season there are a lot of
needs to be addressed. I'm hoping to put out a series of posts that detail some
of the options we have at each position this off-season. However, before we get
there, we have to understand the situation that the Spurs have on their hands.
That means a quick (and casual) look at the Spurs' salary cap situation.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
From a cursory glance, we can surmise that the <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2702307-nba-salary-cap-tax-level-projections-revealed-for-2017-18-season" target="_blank">salary cap for next season will be $101 million</a>, which is
the important number for us. Another slightly less important number is the $121
million luxury tax threshold. (Note: salary figures provided by <a href="http://hoopshype.com/salaries/san_antonio_spurs/" target="_blank">HoopsHype</a>).
I'm not going to get into the cap holds for players on the Spurs' roster
entering free agency, but will simply illustrate the best case scenario here.
Let's also not forget that many are already looking towards the 2018 free agent
class which includes both Paul George and LeBron James.<br />
Let's assume Manu retires and all players with options opt out. This means that
the Spurs will have about $72 million in salary wrapped up. Sounds good right?
However, if we look at the roster under that assumption:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
PG - Tony Parker, Dejounte Murray<br />
SG - Danny Green, Bryn Forbes<br />
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson<br />
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge, Davis Bertans<br />
C</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While we're technically still paying for Livio Jean-Charles, I don't know that
he's coming back to the roster anytime soon.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As reference, let's look at all of the Spurs' draft-and-stash players they have
available to them: Adam Hanga (SG/SF), Nemanja Dangubic (SG), Nikola Milutinov
(C). We'll discuss them as their position comes up.</div>
<a name='more'></a>The one thing that was realized during the Warriors' romp to the NBA Finals was this: outside of Kawhi Leonard, the Spurs don't really have anyone big enough or fast enough to guard Durant. To be fair, many teams have nobody big enough or fast enough to guard Durant. Normally, when Leonard sits the primary on-ball defender falls to the effective defense of Danny Green or, as we found out in the Houston series, the energetic defense of Jonathon Simmons. Unfortunately, both of them are far too small and Durant's length and quick release make it impossible for them to stop him. If that's the case, the assignment would then likely fall to either Kyle Anderson or Davis Bertans, both of whom lack the foot speed and defensive awareness to stay in front of Durant.<br />
<br />
That being said, the reaction to some of these ideas I might have could potentially be met with the argument that we already have a great SF in Kawhi Leonard. To which, I would argue that I would be perfectly comfortable sliding Kawhi to the SG position. Thus, for any sort of major upgrade, the question we have to ask is really more, is the potential player better than Danny Green and thus worth getting rid of Danny Green for.<br />
<br />
One of the obvious, first places to look would be to the Spurs' draft-and-stash options. Without really looking too hard at the prospects laying around the 29th pick of this year's draft, we immediately have Adam Hanga, <a href="https://www.poundingtherock.com/2017/6/7/15758070/nba-free-agency-adam-hanga-join-san-antonio-spurs" target="_blank">who is reportedly coming over from Europe to play with the Spurs this year</a>. Hanga was the 59th pick of the 2011 draft and is a 28 year old, 6-7 SG/SF who averaged 11.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists last season <a href="http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Adam-Hanga-1350/" target="_blank">according to DraftExpress</a>. He does provide some added length to Danny Green, but I see him at best as a Jonathon Simmons-type replacement where he will be a cheap, solid backup.<br />
<br />
This brings us to our list of free agents. I'm going to say in general, I'm never overly optimistic regarding trade scenarios since the Spurs typically don't have immensely good assets for trades nor picks that other teams want. So, as much as I would like for the Spurs to trade for Jimmy Butler or something like that, I'm not super optimistic about anything like that happening. Then again, with R.C. Buford, you sometimes just never know.<br />
<br />
The natural assumption is that with a championship, Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala are going to find some way to both be back on the Warriors again next season. Thus, the biggest wing name that I can think of would be Gordon Hayward from the Utah Jazz, who I would love to sign. He's a very real max contract candidate and I think can easily complement Kawhi, sliding him to the SG slot with Hayward at the starting SF spot. This would give us a tremendously long and potent wing combination with LaMarcus Aldridge at the PF spot. This would require us to find a taker for Danny Green (and Pau Gasol if he doesn't opt out), something I'm not too keen on, but for Hayward I think worth it. However, most rumors have Gordon Hayward reuniting with his college coach Brad Stevens in Boston to get away from the Western Conference and Golden State.<br />
<br />
Danilo Gallinari is another big name on the list, and while he adds a lot of offensive potency, I'm not sure if he'll be able to keep up defensively. Granted, I'm sure Pop would figure out how to get the most out of him as he did with fellow Italian Marco Belinelli, but he's not really someone I would want to shell out big money for, at least not for this current Spurs' roster.<br />
<br />
One name that has a lot of sentimental value to me, and also <a href="http://www.nba.com/kings/news/rudy-gay-injury-update-0/" target="_blank">recovering from injury</a>, which may make him a lot cheaper, is Rudy Gay. I think he's gotten the short end of the stick in that his game has experienced a lot of scrutiny, and some (to me) excessive and perhaps not entirely deserved criticism, particularly in the modern day of analytics. However, I think that Gay has the size and skill to succeed in the right system and he seems like a good team-first type player. I think he would thrive in Popovich's system playing next to Kawhi Leonard, and he would be an excellent secondary option and is undervalued defensively. Granted, Achilles tendon ruptures are iffy, but I think Rudy can return to a solid player given his age and physique (like Wesley Matthews and Dominique Wilkins).<br />
<br />
Most of the other players that I can see would need to be cheaper than Jonathon Simmons, otherwise, we should just match Jonathon Simmons. I would honestly trade Kyle Anderson if he was worth anything to anybody. I want Kyle to succeed but he honestly is the worst kind of tweener there is. He's still not strong enough to guard the bigger PFs and too slow to guard most SFs well. He uses his length to help against smaller players, but my main point of concern with Kyle has just been that his shot mechanic is so slow that makes him a liability on catch-and-shoot situations. He's not good enough to demand the ball but he's not really very good without the ball either. We can call his game deliberate, but really, it's just slow, and unless he develops some way to punish defenses, he's not really adding anything when he's on the floor.<br />
<br />
The guys that I'm going to list now, I think would be solid, especially as backups, and I think working through the year with Chip Engelland could improve their shooting to be respectable, which essentially is their weakness and what we would be looking for. However, as stated previously, it then becomes a character and availability issue which I can't wholly attest to (these guys all have reputations for being hard workers, but I think the Spurs have their own standards, and we have to see if Chip can work with all these players especially with Chad Forcier gone).<br />
<br />
In no particular order:<br />
<br />
Joe Ingles<br />
Jonas Jerebko<br />
Luc Mbah-a-Moute<br />
Andre Roberson<br />
Thabo Sefolosha<br />
Brandon Rush<br />
Jerami Grant<br />
James Johnson<br />
<br />
That's a lot of names. Now, I think Rush and Ingles have proven themselves to be at least serviceable shooters. Personally, I'm pretty intrigued at the idea of getting the most out of players like Jerami Grant or Luc Mbah-a-Moute. While I like James Johnson, the question of whether he's a Spurs-type player does pop up.<br />
<br />
<br />GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-89745122128567527482017-06-14T16:31:00.002-07:002017-06-15T13:08:28.720-07:00Looking at Positonal Needs: Manning the PointSo as we approach the end of the NBA season, with the possibility of the Cavaliers commemorating 10 years since LeBron James's first Finals appearance with another sweep, some would argue that the NBA postseason has been somewhat anti-climatic. The teams that were supposed to win generally won, there never was any real question of an upset. Looming on the Spurs' radar though, outside of the general well-being of Kawhi Leonard's ankle, is the off-season, a time of relative uncertainty, especially if the Spurs expect to be big players, a role that they have generally avoided during the Tim Duncan era. The lone exception was the courtship and signing of LaMarcus Aldridge two seasons ago.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>Looking at the Spurs this off-season there are a lot of needs to be addressed. I'm hoping to put out a series of posts that detail some of the options we have at each position this off-season. However, before we get there, we have to understand the situation that the Spurs have on their hands. That means a quick (and casual) look at the Spurs' salary cap situation.<br />
<br />
From a cursory glance, we can surmise that the <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2702307-nba-salary-cap-tax-level-projections-revealed-for-2017-18-season" target="_blank">salary cap for next season will be $101 million</a>, which is the important number for us. Another slightly less important number is the $121 million luxury tax threshold. (Note: salary figures provided by <a href="http://hoopshype.com/salaries/san_antonio_spurs/" target="_blank">HoopsHype</a>). I'm not going to get into the cap holds for players on the Spurs' roster entering free agency, but will simply illustrate the best case scenario here. Let's also not forget that many are already looking towards the 2018 free agent class which includes both Paul George and LeBron James.<br />
<br />
Let's assume Manu retires and all players with options opt out. This means that the Spurs will have about $72 million in salary wrapped up. Sounds good right? However, if we look at the roster under that assumption:<br />
<br />
PG - Tony Parker, Dejounte Murray<br />
SG - Danny Green, Bryn Forbes<br />
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson<br />
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge, Davis Bertans<br />
C<br />
<br />
While we're technically still paying for Livio Jean-Charles, I don't know that he's coming back to the roster anytime soon.<br />
<br />
As reference, let's look at all of the Spurs' draft-and-stash players they have available to them: Adam Hanga (SG/SF), Nemanja Dangubic (SG), Nikola Milutinov (C). We'll discuss them as their position comes up.<br />
<br />
A quick look at the point guard position tells us we might be okay. Granted, Parker is on his last legs at the ripe NBA age of 35. However, I've been really impressed with the poise that Dejounte Murray has carried onto the floor. Normally, I would say, let's fast track that development, and with Bryn Forbes seeing limited time at PG on the floor it may work out. However, it's not that easy. When Tony Parker got injured in Game 5 of the Houston Rockets series, Spurs fans all were collectively holding their breath. Any injury to Tony was bad, but coupled with his advancing age, this was not ideal. I remember wincing very hard when I heard it was a <a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2017/05/04/tony-parker-torn-left-quadriceps-out-for-playoffs" target="_blank">ruptured quadriceps tendon</a>. Now, it's not an injury I know a lot about, but when any tendon is ruptured (e.g. an achilles) it just sounds bad. While Tony plans on returning to NBA basketball, he's not projected to do so <a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2017/05/30/tony-parker-expecting-be-back-january-san-antonio-spurs" target="_blank">until January</a>, and even if he does, we're not sure about his efficacy on the court. We all saw how much Kobe Bryant fell off after his return from a ruptured achilles tendon.<br />
<br />
That simply means that if we don't pick up a PG, we're running with Dejounte Murray and Bryn Forbes at the point until January. Not super ideal. If you do the math, we have just under $30 million in cap space to spend, and we need to use that (plus any minimum contracts) to fill at LEAST 4 additional roster spots.<br />
<br />
Now let's consider the options. I'm not really going to explore to many trade options because that's a whole other conversation.<br />
<br />
Many people have been jumping in on the idea of <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2713252-chris-paul-reportedly-will-consider-spurs-if-he-leaves-clippers" target="_blank">Chris Paul leaving the Clippers for San Antonio</a>. I only mention this because this is the most popular story out there right now, so I figure out would address it on the get go and get it out of the way. The only way I think this is a good idea is if Chris Paul asks for less than a max deal, which I don't think he will. In order to make enough room to sign Paul to a $34 million max deal, the Spurs would then have to get rid of either Danny Green or LaMarcus Aldridge and all of their available cap space, it's not a situation I think the Spurs would be successful in.<br />
<br />
So let's look at our options:<br />
<br />
<b>Re-sign Patty Mills</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
In terms of chemistry and corporate knowledge I think this is a pretty safe bet. Unfortunately, Patty may command more than we are willing to pay for him. Patty has been a stellar backup PG that can control the offense and make big shots when he's called upon. His contract this year was only $3.2 million, but with his stellar play both this past season and especially in the 2014 NBA Finals, he's due for a raise. Would it be a good idea for the Spurs to match a <a href="http://www.spotrac.com/nba/toronto-raptors/cory-joseph-8080/" target="_blank">Cory Joseph type contract</a>? That's really hard to say. We know that Patty probably won't be any more than a stellar backup. The closer that annual salary number gets to $10 million the harder it becomes to justify.<br />
<br />
<b>The stopgap veteran pile</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
The one thing I don't think Pop gets enough credit for is his ability to mitigate individual defensive weaknesses with his team defense schemes. I don't think Tony Parker, David Lee, or Pau Gasol are considered elite defenders, at best they are poor to average. Yet, in spite of all of that, the Spurs had the best defense in the league. Granted, having a defensive genius like Kawhi Leonard and stellar perimeter defenders like Danny Green and Jonathon Simmons helped, but I think there's something about the way Pop designs defensive sets that gets the most out of all of his players, included supposed defensive sieves. That being said, I would just like to point out that while some of these names may not fit the mold of exactly what we want, I think the lack of defense may not be as bad as some might think. Without further ado, let me throw out a couple of names that won't WOW anyone but I think would be serviceable until Tony returns and won't take up too much money, maybe minimum to a small 1 year contract with a team option or something.<br />
<br />
To start off this list I would like to consider Jose Calderon. Look, Calderon is also 35, yes, but he plays a controlled brand of basketball that is effective. He boasts a high basketball IQ and shoots well from outside. I'd like to think of him now at best as a poor man's Cory Joseph, which, isn't stellar, but, I think until we know for sure what Tony Parker will look like in January, the Spurs will be in a sort of state of limbo. Thrown into this pile I would also include stalwarts such as Beno Udrih (with whom Pop is already familiar), Raymond Felton, and perhaps even Deron Williams.<br />
<br />
<b>The serviceable pile</b><br />
<br />
Most of these names won't blow you away, and frankly, they could get expensive enough that we might as well just re-sign Patty Mills. These would be names like Darren Collison, Ty Lawson, Shelvin Mack, Ty Lawson, Ramon Sessions, or even Aaron Brooks. So if Patty is cheaper than these guys, take Patty.<br />
<br />
<b>The reach pile</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I frankly don't think we'd get him, but it would be a good story if he was at a reasonable price that didn't compromise the Spurs' future cap space. That name is George Hill. Perhaps his injuries have lowered his value, but we have to remember that he made a young Jazz core look very formidable. When he played he averaged a strong (but not stellar) 15.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists on just under 47% shooting per game. Beyond that, he's played off-ball with Tony before, so he understands how to run an offense but doesn't need the ball in his hands to be successful. Maybe throw Ian Clark in here.<br />
<br />
<b>The redemption projects</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
These are guys that I think still have a lot of potential, but of course, their lack of development has put their work-ethic and desire to win into question. While I have the utmost confidence in the shot development of assistant coach Chip Engelland, and his resume speaks for itself (see: Richard Jefferson's three ball, Tony Parker's three ball, Kawhi Leonard's jumpshot, Tiago Splitter's free throw, etc...), one has to wonder if a) he can fix anybody's shot and b) if he will have time considering how he will be working a lot with Dejounte Murray.<br />
<br />
<i>Tyreke Evans</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Evans was put into a bad situation where he couldn't win. We get that. But he could be so much more. I don't think he's entirely suited to play the PG, but I think with spot minutes his versatility and size would be valuable. He might be a bargain given his stock isn't very high, and one would think that the Spurs' shot doctor could turn him into something special if he doesn't break the system. This is a character question which I would defer to Pop and Bud.<br />
<br />
<i>Michael Carter-Williams</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Another former ROY. He kind of has a broken jumpshot so nobody guards him beyond 10 feet, but his size and ball-handling ability make him intriguing. Perhaps he'll turn into Shaun Livingston 2.0, perhaps he could be pre-injury Shaun Livingston, who knows? Again, character becomes an issue as to the efficacy of the shot doctor.<br />
<br />
The last two players I don't know a whole lot about, but I think also bear intriguing possibilities especially as their stock is kind of at a low are Brandon Jennings and Trey Burke, but like all prospects in this category, their character remains a large question mark, which may be enough for Pop and Bud to pass over them.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-23235640263510124382017-05-31T16:02:00.000-07:002017-05-31T16:02:13.522-07:00The Beginning of the Post-Duncan Big Three Era: Looking Forward to the Kawhi-Era SpursWith one season down, albeit, finished rather anti-climatically, ending with an unfortunate and fairly scary injury to Tony Parker (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1c2eEbv6NDA" target="_blank">ruptured quadriceps tendon</a>) and a poorly executed <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ikx2nXZKdw" target="_blank">Zaza Pachulia close-out</a>, after watching the game and seeing how Pop treated Kawhi after the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h31FxitClC4" target="_blank">sprain in Game 5</a> of the Rockets series I would surmise that Pop was just kind of riding however far the team could go in the playoffs because fairly, the Spurs didn't have much shot without Tony Parker and even less of one without Kawhi Leonard. This was quickly demonstrated by a convincing four game sweep of the Spurs out of the Western Conference Finals by the dominant Golden State Warriors. While many Spurs fans will point to the fact that this was something of a rebuilding year for the Spurs, which is crazy, considering it was just another ho-hum 50 win year for Gregg Popovich, but let's be honest, there is some merit to that. There were 7 new players on the roster (Pau Gasol, David Lee, Dewayne Dedmon, Davis Bertans, Dejounte Murray, Bryn Forbes, and Joel Anthony), but most importantly, Tim Duncan, a fixture since the 1997-1998 season was no longer on the roster.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>With this year potentially being the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM8VUhXxRf0" target="_blank">last for Manu Ginobili</a>, and coupled with what could be a career-ending or at least career-debilitating injury for Tony Parker (whenever you hear rupture it just sounds bad), despite <a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2017/05/30/tony-parker-expecting-be-back-january-san-antonio-spurs" target="_blank">a timeline to return in January</a>. With that, we now potentially look forward to a season in 2018 a season wrought with uncertainty, but before we do, let's consider a couple of the things we have learned this year:<br />
<br />
<b>1. Kawhi Leonard is the real deal</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
If there was any doubt before I believe that this season firmly silenced such doubts. He consistently raised his averages, and while the statistical lines of the likes of James Harden and Russell Westbrook may make Leonard's 25.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.7 blocks with 2.1 turnovers on 48.5% shooting and 38% from beyond the arc not that special, it belies the impact that Kawhi makes on the game on both ends of the floor. The first thing we have to note is his efficiency. This line averaging only about 33 minutes per game, this doesn't even qualify him for the top 20 (which LeBron James leads at 37.8). Despite that, he remained 9th in scoring and 8th in steals across the league. If we look into advanced statistics, Kawhi was 3rd to only Westbrook and Kevin Durant in PER, 20th in True Shooting percentage (61%), 4th in overall win shares, 3rd if you break win shares down per 48 minutes, 7th in overall box plus-minus, and 7th in value over replacement player, which I think is actually more reflective of how much the Spurs get out of their backups than any deficiency on Kawhi's part. His game only elevated in the playoffs.<br />
<br />
In the playoffs Kawhi was the definitive leader in PER (31.7, with the next being LeBron James at 30.4) as well as win shares per 48 minutes. He averaged 27.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 2.2 turnovers in just under 36 minutes per game and shot an efficient 52.5% from the field and 45.5% from beyond the arc. If there were any questions as to whether or not Kawhi Leonard could shoulder the heavy load that is the standard of the being the Spurs' franchise cornerstone as set by Tim Duncan, Leonard goes far and beyond silencing any such doubts and concerns. It's not just statistics though that tell us Kawhi is the real deal, Kawhi, who already boasts a Finals MVP, back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards, an spot on the All-NBA First Team, as well as being MVP runner-up, is once again an MVP finalist and a Defensive Player of the Year finalist.<br />
<br />
<b>2. LaMarcus Aldridge is not a go-to guy</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I can sense a slew of Portland fans saying, "I told you so." This is not a knock on LaMarcus, but rather, an understanding of who he is and how he fits into the scheme of things. Some sports commentators have called LaMarcus's performance during the playoffs something of an enigma, which I can totally see. He would follow dominant 20 point outings with a disappearing act, scoring only single digits. After seeing strong performances in Game 6 of the series against the Rockets and then subsequently Game 1 against the Warriors, I, like many others thought, maybe LaMarcus got it together. However, it wasn't meant to be, as he averaged just over 11 points per game across the following three. While at first, my thoughts about LaMarcus were less than kind, I actually believe rather than being enigmatic, LaMarcus's play over the playoffs was actually more of a revelation to many of us of who LaMarcus Aldridge is and how to most effectively use him.<br />
<br />
With the Spurs playing a lot more isolation basketball than it had previously, particularly in juxtaposition to their dominant 2014 championship, it would actually behoove us to look more closely at the now touted Big 3 model. Every Big 3 model has its pecking order, though I would argue that the Spurs model behind Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili was a little more amorphous and adaptable. However, we do see it switching, moving more from Duncan to Parker as time progressed, as we can ascertain from simply looking at the 2003 and 2007 championship runs side-by-side. However, if we look at a recent history, the successful Big 3's all had a distinctive pecking order, or least fairly well-defined roles. If we begin with the 2008 Boston Celtics we see that Paul Pierce was still definitively the go-to guy, with Kevin Garnett relinquishing the largest role in terms of offense. While he was still featured and effective, he wasn't the go-to guy. As we progress to the Heat teams of 2011-2014, we see that similarly, Chris Bosh played a significantly diminished role, with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade rightfully taking the lion's share of the possessions and control of the offense. Finally, if we look at the modern era of the past few years, it is relatively easy to make the strong case that the 3rd options within the Big 3 of the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers have been Draymond Green and Kevin Love respectively. Incidentally, these all happen to be PFs, which happens to be the position that LaMarcus plays.<br />
<br />
I'm not arguing that the PF in every Big 3 is supposed to be the third option, though to some degree it makes sense. With the league rules favoring ball-handlers, elite play from play-makers at the wings or at the point becomes much more valuable than those in the post or even at the pivot. Increased range on 3-point shooting (mainly Steph Curry) has also extended the effective area of the court that defenses need to cover, making it harder to initiate half-court offenses, the ball just becomes harder to get into the post, be it high or low, without taking up too much time in the shot clock, it becomes easier then, for the offense to be completely dictated and initiated by the person bringing the ball up. Even teams like Memphis, which had traditionally been touted as an old-school, throwback team, relying grit and defense, running its offense through the effective high-low combination of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, has begun to shift over, giving more control and priority to getting Mike Conley (rightfully) involved in the offense.<br />
<br />
That being said, Spurs have their number 1 option, Kawhi Leonard. Hopefully, his ankle injury isn't too serious, and he'll only get better as he continues to develop his ball-handling and play-making abilities. What LaMarcus has told us this post-season, is that he's a really solid number 3 option in a Big 3 scheme, and while that takes some getting used to (just ask Chris Bosh or Kevin Love) it seems like that is where he will thrive the most. However, what this means then, is that we need a number two option. Someone akin to Kyrie Irving or Dwyane Wade circa 2013 to help Kawhi with the play-making duties. To a greater or lesser extent that was Tony Parker. However, with Parker turning 35, which in and of itself is enough to raise concerns, considering he entered the league at age 19, but also coupled with returning from a massive injury (again, ruptured quadriceps tendon), Spurs need a definitive secondary play-maker that LaMarcus Aldridge is not (to be fair, neither is Pau Gasol).<br />
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<b>3. Length matters</b><br />
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Seeing how Jonathon Simmons and Danny Green played defense against James Harden in Games 5 and 6 of the Houston Rockets series, I was hopeful after Game 1 that such defensive tenacity would help against the potent wing offense of Golden State. After Kawhi went down with his ankle injury in Game 1 though, I came to this realization, neither Simmons nor Green are long enough to stop Kevin Durant. Then looking down the roster, I came to a second realization, neither Kyle Anderson nor Davis Bertans had enough lateral speed to stop Kevin Durant. Which summarized nicely into, the Spurs didn't have anyone outside of Kawhi that could guard Kevin Durant.<br />
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Now, granted, it's Kevin Durant. You know, arguably one of the top 2 or 3 players in the league. Not much can stop him, and losing Kawhi, arguably the best perimeter defender in the league, there's going to be something of a drop-off creating a fairly large disparity. However, that being said, while Green and Simmons aren't by any measure undersized, they are both more ideally suited for playing the SG position, likewise, Anderson and Bertans lack the footspeed to effective contain some of the quicker SFs like Durant. Pop was forced to make a tough call, and while it can be effective, wing pairings of two of Manu Ginobili, Green, and Simmons, was far from ideal, especially if Pop wanted to switch Patty Mills off of Curry.<br />
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<b>4. The young guys are all Spurs-y</b><br />
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This is particularly true of the two rookies Davis Bertans and Dejounte Murray. Both were somewhat thrown into the fire with the Parker and Leonard injuries in the playoffs and while there were some classic rookie miscues, I thought both of them carried themselves well. Certainly, there are a lot of rough edges to work off of both of their games but I'm optimistic about how they will develop and look to see how the Spurs coaching and development staff (looking at you Chip Engelland) continue to help them realize their potential.<br />
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So now we have tasted and are running full-speed into the Kawhi-era of Spurs basketball. I'm actually fairly excited. However, there are some reservations, there are several key contributors that Spurs have heading into free agency, and if we look at the likes of previous Spurs role-players, we can assume that they're going to get paid (see: Marco Belinelli, Cory Joseph, Gary Neal, Aron Baynes, Boban Marjanovic). All three free agents were critical to the Spurs' success this season and it'll be hard to keep all of them let alone land a big name free agent. It's hard to not see Patty Mills, Dewayne Dedmon, and especially Jonathon Simmons not getting big contracts, not max deals, but perhaps big enough to put them out of Spurs' reach, in order to sign a bigger need contract, as the Pau Gasol contract did with Boris Diaw. Even if Manu retires, the Spurs won't really have much cap space to maneuver, and thus landing any big name free agent may mean losing even more valuable core players like Gasol or Danny Green (or maybe even Aldridge).<br />
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With Tony Parker's injury still up in the air and his return not set until January, it'll be interesting to see if Pop hands things over to Murray right away or if the front office opts to try to bring on more established talent. Chris Paul's name has been all over the internet, but it's difficult imagining Spurs being able and willing to make the space for another aging point guard, despite his known efficacy. Another intriguing option would be George Hill, who can play well next to Tony when he comes back and brings a sort of defensive tenacity that would be great for countering the growing small-ball trend, however, the question again is what do the Spurs give up for that?<br />
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A quick gander at the free agent list shows us that there are a lot of big names. Several of them probably aren't truly "free agents" in the sense that it's pretty much a given where they'll end up. I sense that if they win a championship, Durant and Curry will somehow figure out a way to keep the Warriors together. Likewise, I think Andre Iguodala will take a paycut to stay with his team. Most of the big name players just aren't really affordable to the Spurs. If we consider what we'd be losing, at the very least, in terms of free agents, we would have to assume that it would be Patty Mills, Jonathon Simmons, Dewayne Dedmon, and Joel Anthony, let's also assume Manu retires. This leaves the Spurs with the following lineup:<br />
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PG - Tony Parker (out until January), Dejounte Murray<br />
SG - Danny Green, Bryn Forbes<br />
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson<br />
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Davis Bertans<br />
C - Pau Gasol<br />
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I for one still don't like Kyle Anderson at the 3 position, I think at this point at best, he might be something akin to a less athletic, play-making Marvin Williams type player, but he still needs to improve his shooting and strength to be more effective. I also think Bryn Forbes is like a Gary Neal, in which, he's useful in spots but not someone I like to rely on, especially being slightly undersized at the SG spot, though, if he improves his ball-handling and court awareness he could potentially turn into a decent spot replacement for Patty Mills. This of course is all assuming neither David Lee nor Pau Gasol opt out, which if they do, changes the whole picture.<br />
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The main question for the Spurs has to be whether what they have is enough. In some sense, I think if Gasol comes back, the Spurs will still be in the mold of treading water (which still of course amounts to a certain level of championship contention) until Parker, the last of the Big 3 retires. That being said, there seem to be needs at every major position, and certainly while there are players that might help, the question is are they better than what we have? Certainly, any 3-and-D player has to be compared to Danny Green, especially if they're taking his minutes, and/or possibly Danny's spot in the roster. I would argue immediately though, that at that price point, any 3-and-D player added to the roster, even if he were physically more imposing than Danny, would at best be a lateral movement rather than a step forward.<br />
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Most urgently, I think would be some bigs for rim protection and a secondary play-maker, probably a PG, to at least spot Tony Parker's minutes while he's injured or backup Dejounte Murray until Parker returns. Generally speaking, no names really jump out at me. However, it feels like there might be a major shakeup across the league as some teams continue to struggle to find success in the post-season (read Clippers). We'll have to see, there's too much fluidity right now for us to be able to really know for sure. After the Finals and the draft I think R.C. Buford and Pop have a lot of homework to do, but I have confidence they'll make the best choice, they generally have. Even then, they're entitled to a Richard Jefferson sized mistake every now and again.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-20103050029369658562016-08-24T16:17:00.000-07:002016-08-24T16:30:54.237-07:00Unfettered Optimism: New faces and young gunsTim Duncan retired. It's kind of the end of an era for the Spurs. Strange to say it, but essentially the Spurs are sort of officially in a rebuild phase. Yes, we still have Tony and Manu (albeit on the last legs of their careers), yes we did sign Pau (also last legs), but Timmy was the cornerstone for the franchise for arguably his entire 19 year career. Yet this is what makes the Spurs amazing. For most NBA teams the word "rebuilding" means that you're bottom feeding in the standings, looking for that lottery pick that will change your fortunes (e.g. the 76ers). It's interesting to note, that no team with a top five pick has jumped from lottery to the playoffs since 2003, no rookie has had that sort of impact since Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade (not gonna count Darko even though he technically won a championship his rookie year, because frankly, Larry Brown hated playing rookies). Currently, as stars of the early 2000s (e.g. Duncan, Kobe Bryant, and Dirk Nowitzki, sorry but Kevin Garnett hasn't really been super relevant for the better part of the last decade) begin to fade into the sunset most teams are either rebuilding (e.g. the Lakers now that Kobe is gone) or anticipating a rebuild (e.g. the Mavericks once Dirk is gone). That's what happens when you lose a pillar of the team.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>The crazy thing about the Spurs, is that this is technically a rebuilding year. Which is strange, because it feels like we've almost never been there. We've never really had to start from scratch, which can all be attributed to the phenomenal good fortune of a couple of ping-pong balls bouncing the right way all the way back in 1997. The transition from David Robinson to Tim Duncan was near seamless. While perhaps a little bumpier, I would argue that now Duncan's (and Parker and Ginobili's) transition to Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge is well underway. If we really look at it, Spurs are "rebuilding". Incidentally, they're also projected to still be the second best team in the NBA next season. That's crazy.<br />
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How are they doing this though? We can talk all we want about the Spurs way, but what I want us to look at are the ways that the Spurs have been slowly retooling their roster from old, reliable veterans to young promising prospects. The league has payed attention, garnering appropriate attention to key players like Danny Green and Patty Mills, giving contracts to other products of the Spurs' meticulous scouting and development, like Cory Joseph, Aron Baynes, and most recently Boban Marjanovic (courtesy largely of Stan Van Gundy). However, unlike Joseph, Baynes, and Marjanovic, I believe that this year's batch of youngsters host a lot of promise and a youth movement in the Spurs organization that will sustain what R.C. Buford states as the Spurs' greatest strength: continuity.<br />
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Spurs again are bringing in a lot of new faces, I won't really touch on the established veterans too much but suffice it to say that David Lee and Pau Gasol are both solid additions. While I wish Gasol were 5 years younger and Lee weren't the poster boy of bad defense (with Gasol not being much better), I believe that these can be mitigated. With a lot of the older guys, Gregg Popovich has typically been more about efficiency than necessarily raw production. Gasol and Lee were largely added for their fit in the offensive end to give them more firepower. While the defense takes a major hit because of Duncan's retirement, to me it's more of a testament Duncan's abilities than it is an indictment of Gasol's. It's hard not to take for granted that we've had almost 30 years of Hall of Fame defensive anchoring in David Robinson and Tim Duncan, but I also think Popovich has developed enough of a defensive system that will hopefully mitigate whatever perceived weaknesses there are on an individual basis. Not everyone is going to be Kawhi Leonard or Tim Duncan, or heck even Bruce Bowen or Danny Green.<br />
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What Lee and Gasol bring to the table that excites me is the offensive flow. I loved Boris Diaw, he's a phenomenal player, but it was frustrating how passive he was at times in the game, which arguably could be something of an issue with Kyle Anderson as well. Lee and Gasol add offensive weapons that I believe fit within the Spurs' scheme perfectly. Gasol can run high-low with Aldridge as well if not better than Duncan because he's a bigger threat from further out. Similarly, I believe Lee will be a better offensive fit than David West was in the previous season.<br />
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However, honestly, it's neither Lee nor Gasol that actually excite me, it's the new faces that no one has heard of before, the youth movement in the Spurs' organization, that really excite me. For one thing, because the Spurs scout well, these players are all dripping with potential, and with the Spurs' history of player development, it's hard not to get excited about the possibilities. Now, granted not everyone pans out, we're still not 100% sure if Jonathon Simmons and Kyle Anderson will take the next step, though it looks promising (hopefully we'll find out this year). Maybe we've found another Cory Joseph or George Hill type player or maybe we've stumbled onto another James Anderson, only time will tell, but as things are, they're looking pretty rosy.<br />
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The first player to naturally be excited about is the one who will likely have the opportunity to make the biggest impact; Davis Bertans. A lot of people don't know who Bertans is, and that's largely because he's been spending most of his time playing overseas in Europe. Bertans comes to the Spurs as the 42nd pick of the 2011 draft, a pick that just happened to be tossed into the trade when the Spurs and Pacers essentially swapped George Hill for Kawhi Leonard. So, if this guy pans out, it makes Buford look like even more of a genius for pulling off that one. <a href="http://www.poundingtherock.com/2016/7/9/12064458/davis-bertans-fit-spurs" target="_blank">Some stuff has been written about Bertans</a>, but most people in the States generally don't have as much visibility into the European leagues. What we do know about Bertans is that he is a 6-10 23 year old who has shot a career 40% from beyond the arc in Europe. <a href="http://www.poundingtherock.com/2016/8/5/12368758/davis-bertans-interviewed-on-latvian-television" target="_blank">He'll be asked to largely play PF in San Antonio</a>, which I think works considering the small ball movement the NBA has been going in the past number of years, along with the fact that he will largely be facing up against second units. <a href="https://youtu.be/v5gfj_j4U50" target="_blank">From the one Summer League game</a> we did see Bertans playing in, we can see that he definitely has NBA range, hitting bombs from well beyond the arc, and that he has a decent motor able to dribble a little in traffic and run the floor. At worst, he'll be the next Matt Bonner, who frankly, worked out pretty well for the Spurs. Yet during that play we've seen glimpses of what might be potentially more, certainly I don't expect him to be the second coming of Dirk Nowitzki, but I think he can be a solid role player, I'm super intrigued by his mobility. With that long frame and high release, his shot is virtually unblockable. His ability to stretch the floor is already a huge asset, as he appears to be a better shooter already than either Kyle Anderson or Boris Diaw, anything else that he adds onto the game I think will just be gravy. While there might be some concern regarding his strength in defending the post and perhaps some of his rebounding numbers, I'm not overly concerned considering he'll likely play fewer minutes, but I think he adds a potent weapon to play next to some of the low post options we have in Leonard, Aldridge, and Gasol.<br />
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The next player could be the one that I'm arguably the most excited for. It's strange because while the Spurs have been largely considered a team of internationals, the team has recently been picking up a lot of US based players. Similar to 2009, when DeJuan Blair was the no-brainer pick for the Spurs, not a lot of people expected Washington guard Dejounte Murray to fall so late in the 2016 draft as to be available when the Spurs drafted. Both players were projected to be potential lottery picks. While DeJuan Blair's tenure at the Spurs was somewhat rocky and didn't end up working, the ceiling on Murray seems to be much, much higher (not to mention that the Spurs have had a better track record of developing guards and wings as opposed to bigs). Unlike most Spurs' picks and prospects, Murray is a much more flashier player, growing up in Seattle and being <a href="http://washington.247sports.com/Article/Crawford-Murray-Have-Built-an-Unbreakable-Bond--37943098" target="_blank">mentored by Jamal Crawford</a>. What's intriguing about Murray is his potential versatility. In college he played a lot of the point, where finished his lone NCAA season averaging 16.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game (albeit on 3.2 turnovers). DraftExpress dubs Murray as an "incredibly aggressive player, always looking for ways to get inside the paint and get a shot off, not being afraid of contact in the least bit." The profile continues by indicating Murray's proficiency and preference of the floater (shades of Tony Parker?). While I love the prospect of potentially trotting out an athletic 6-5 point guard next to Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard, Murray does have to improve his outside shooting and his decision making. Looking at his form, it doesn't seem too bad, and with Chip Engelland on hand, I'm not overly concerned with the former. The decision-making I believe is largely an issue of discipline and maturity, and I think Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are the perfect mentors for him in this regard. I think he'll probably spend a lot of time in Austin this year, but I think he has all the tools he needs to succeed. If he can develop the defensive discipline and hustle of Cory Joseph and Patty Mills, combined with his physical tools, and then reign in his high-motor offensive game to fit into the offense, I could see him either joining Green and Leonard in the starting lineup, creating a monstrous defensive perimeter, replacing
Tony Parker, or being a spark plug secondary playmaker off the bench like Ginobili and his mentor, Jamal Crawford.<br />
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I've actually been pretty excited about this next player since he was drafted way back in 2013. I love his size, his athleticism, his hustle. Livio Jean-Charles (or LJC amongst the Spurs' bloggers) had been playing the past few years in Europe on ASVEL, a French team, incidentally, owned by Tony Parker. Unfortunately, an injury from playing for the national team hindered some of his development, but what we liked about about LJC remains true today. First off, he's only 22, so he still has a good amount of time to develop his game. While his play in Summer League and the Euroleague aren't blowing us out of the water, we know the potential is there as he was awarded the Most Outstanding Player (over players like Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, and Karl-Anthony Towns) in the 2013 Nike Hoop Summit after <a href="http://www.draftexpress.com/article/2013-Nike-Hoop-Summit-Game-Recap-4149/" target="_blank">dropping 27 points and grabbing 13 rebounds against the US Junior Select Team</a>. While I don't see him becoming much more than a role player, I certainly expect that rebounding aggressiveness to come into play. Additionally, I believe he has the tools to become a good to great defender. At worst I see him as a more explosive DeJuan Blair, crashing the glass and grabbing rebounds. However, I think he already has some of the skills (a developing jumper) necessary to make him another one of those diamond-in-the-rough picks that the Spurs seem to consistently find. Again, with Engelland on the staff, I don't really anticipate a huge issue in developing his jumper and improving his free throw percentage. Like Murray, or perhaps even more so, I see LJC spending a lot of time in Austin, where, the hope is that he will continue to develop his game and play aggressively, maximizing that 7-2 wingspan. While he may not have the court savvy, play-making, or superb passing of Boris Diaw that Kyle Anderson does, the athleticism and motor of LJC makes him as versatile defensively as Diaw (something that was often underrated), giving him the potential to guard 4 positions. While he probably (like Anderson) will have to continue to develop his strength to guard bigger NBA players, I think he can develop into a defensive minded 3-and-D PF.<br />
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The fourth and final new player (sorry NCAA fans, I don't think Bryn Forbes and Ryan Arcidiacono are making the cut after training camp, I could be wrong) that I'm pretty excited about is the Argentine, Patricio Garino. After graduating from George Washington University averaging 14.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.4 steals shooting 43% from beyond the arc in his senior year, Garino signed a <a href="http://www.poundingtherock.com/2016/7/30/12333112/spurs-sign-patricio-garino-to-2-year-deal" target="_blank">2 year contract with the Spurs</a>, then proceeded to represent his native country of Argentina (alongside Manu Ginobili) in the Olympics, averaging 6.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 1 steal and 33% from beyond the arc during Argentina's run in the tournament. Just one year prior in the 2015 Olympic Qualifying Tournament he averaged 7.7 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.5 assist, and 1.2 steals shooting 42% from beyond the arc. Standing 6-7 with a 6-10 wingspan, Garino is touted to be a superior defensive player who is smart and hard-working, and has significantly improved his spot-up 3 point shooting over the past year. A lot of people peg him to be similar to Danny Green, and I understand that of the contemporary players, I think he could be a good comparison, both in terms of length and size, but I think the way he plays and the hustle he brings reminds me a bit of Bruce Bowen. Now, I'm not saying he'll be the second coming of Bruce Bowen, but the skill-set of scrappy, in-your-face defense and spot up three point shooting is there. He could become the prototypical 3-and-D type player now so coveted by the NBA. Maybe he won't develop the chops and reputation of the likes of Bowen or his contemporaries in Raja Bell or Shane Battier, but I think he could become at the least one of the better 3-and-D players we've seen, and some of those guys are getting paid. Maybe he could become like the next DeMarre Carroll or Khris Middleton type of player (at worst like Matt Barnes). I think defensive discipline and instinct, especially on the perimeter is one of those things that will translate well into the NBA. I think he's got the size and the strength to stick with most players. Maybe he's not as athletic as say a LeBron James, but I think he can definitely begin to build a strong defensive reputation.<br />
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There is one more player I'd like to talk about, who doesn't quite fall in the same bucket as the Bertans, Murray, Jean-Charles, or Garino, and that's because he's not a rookie. He's also not a high-profile player like David Lee or Pau Gasol. However, many well-informed Spurs pundits believe that <a href="http://www.poundingtherock.com/2016/8/18/12548576/dewayne-dedmon-may-be-more-important-to-the-spurs-than-you-think" target="_blank">Dewayne Dedmon could be the most important addition that the Spurs made this off-season</a>. Dedmon went undrafted in 2013 and began his career bouncing back and forth between Santa Cruz and Oakland in the Warriors' D-League program. After a brief stint in Philadelphia, Dedmon ended up in Orlando where he spent the better part of the last 3 seasons. A legitimate 7 footer, Dedmon sizes up as a defensive-minded, rim-protecting center. He has the speed and athleticism to keep up with today's NBA pace and is young enough to continue to be developing. While he averaged a <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dedmode01.html#per_minute::none" target="_blank">promising 2.2 blocks per 36 minutes in his tenure in the NBA, he also averages a distressing 5.9 personal fouls per 36 minutes</a>. His rebounding efficiency numbers are above average, and one has to think that if he can develop the defensive discipline of the Spurs' system and stay on the floor, he would be an ideal defensive big man option to pair next to either Gasol or Aldridge.<br />
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Overall, despite the sadness of losing Tim Duncan, these players are helping transition to a new phase for the Spurs franchise. Coupled with the continued development and emergence of Kawhi Leonard, the growing comfort and familiarity of LaMarcus Aldridge, and hopefully a return to hot-handed shooting for Danny Green (and Patty Mills), I can still say, I'm excited for the Spurs next year.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-18044139070821751142016-07-19T11:39:00.001-07:002016-07-19T11:39:45.508-07:00Looking forward for the SpursTim Duncan has retired.<br />
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It feels like I should probably do a post entirely on that subject. He's been the cornerstone to this Spurs franchise for the past 19 years and a fixture in the NBA for what seems like an eternity. He will always be remembered as one of the classiest and most professional players to ever suit up. That, and possibly the greatest power forward of all time.<br />
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That being said, it's time for the Spurs to continue moving on into the 2016-2017 NBA season. This offseason saw a bunch of players getting paid (I see you Boban) due to the spike in the salary cap. The Spurs have opted to re-sign Manu Ginobili at a one year $14 million contract. While this seems high, I think it's appropriate to consider it "back pay" for all the team friendly pay-cuts he took in his prime. Furthermore, Spurs have added veteran center Pau Gasol; Davis Bertans, a 6-10 Latvian sharpshooter acquired in the Kawhi Leonard - George Hill trade; Dejounte Murray, a 6-5 super athletic point guard the Spurs drafted out of Washington late in the first round; Ryan Arcidiacono, a 6-3 point guard that was a key part of the Villanova NCAA championship team; Dewayne Dedmon, a defensive-minded 7 footer who has been around the league; and Bryn Forbes, a 6-3 sharpshooter out of Michigan State.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>In addition to all these additions, the Spurs however have lost a number of players. Obviously we start with Tim Duncan who retired after 19 years in the league with the Spurs; David West who left to pursue greener pastures with the Golden State Warriors; Boris Diaw, who was traded to the Utah Jazz to make room for Pau Gasol's contract; Boban Marjanovic, who got a massive contract from the Detroit Pistons which the Spurs were unable to match due to the 76ers pushing the price on Manu's contract; and finally Matt Bonner, who is an unrestricted free agent that the Spurs are unlikely to re-sign.<br />
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What does this mean? Well, here's a look at our roster so far:<br />
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PG - Tony Parker, Patty Mills, Dejounte Murray, Ryan Arcidiacono<br />
SG - Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Jonathon Simmons, Bryn Forbes<br />
SF- Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans<br />
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge, Livio Jean-Charles?<br />
C - Pau Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon<br />
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There are also rumors of the Spurs trying to work out a contract for Livio Jean-Charles, a 2013 draft pick of the Spurs who plays on ASVEL, this year's French league champions, partially owned by Tony Parker. Hey, maybe we'll give last year's second round pick Cady Lalanne a chance.<br />
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Before I jump into everything, I'm going to be honest and say I haven't done an extensive amount of scouting on the younger players (e.g. Murray, Arcidiacono, and Forbes). Beyond that, there's been a good amount, but still relatively limited coverage on the foreign players (e.g. Bertans, Jean-Charles). So take my analyses with a grain of salt.<br />
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Realistically speaking, I expect the Spurs to kind of load up on contracts before heading into training camp. While counting Jean-Charles there are already 15 players on the roster, I fully expect the R.C. Buford and Pop to have the full 20 players eligible on their roster for training camp. It's a lot of turn, but this arguably is probably the closest we're going to see the Spurs to a massive rebuild. Despite having enough players to fill out a full NBA roster, I personally only really see 10-11 players that I would put into a regular NBA rotation:<br />
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PG - Tony Parker, Patty Mills<br />
SG - Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Jonathon Simmons<br />
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans<br />
PF - LaMarcus Aldrdige<br />
C - Pau Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon<br />
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This is largely dependent on Bertans' ability to adjust to NBA speed and whether or not Dedmon can stay on the floor and not foul out (he averages over 6 fouls per 36 minutes). While it's concerning that we are potentially only 3 deep in the frontcourt, I think it's doable, and it will give us opportunities to see if Anderson or Bertans can be utilized as small-ball PFs given the right matchups (think a lite version of Ryan Anderson or Rashard Lewis). If Jean-Charles is indeed signed, I fully expect him and Murray to occupy the 14th and 15th roster spots but spend the bulk of their time in Austin honing their skills, IQ, and decision making in the D-League. Realistically, unless they're exceptional in training camp (because they weren't in Summer League) I don't expect either Arcidiacono or Forbes to actually make the final roster.<br />
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Before we jump straight into what we need and who we should sign, I'd like to first address two trade <b>rumors</b> (emphasis on the word <i>rumor</i>) floating around. First, it's been noted that Jalen Rose has stated that Russell Westbrook should join the Spurs. The only way that's happening this season is via trade. Beyond having the actual assets to trade to OKC for Westbrook (and he's given no indication he wants to leave and OKC has given no indication they want to part ways with him), when you hear Pop talk about guys who scream and pound their chest like someone who dunked the ball for the first time, it's hard not to immediately think of Westbrook. I think Westbrook is a brilliant player, but I don't know that he has the temperament of a Spur. While some might argue he is a talent that makes him an exception to that, I don't know that that would be a wise move for the Spurs organizationally (kind of like when they tried out Dennis Rodman in the 90s).<br />
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A second rumor is that the Spurs are interested in Greg Monroe. Please note that there's a reason a lot of the more reputable sources (e.g. Adrian Wojnarowski or even ESPN) don't really have a lot of Spurs rumors, it's because the Spurs are notoriously tight lipped about these things. I don't know how substantiated the Spurs' interest in Monroe is, but already having both Aldridge and Gasol in tow, I fail to see how that's a good move. Monroe at best, is an Al Jefferson type player. A solid, below-the-rim, back-to-the-basket low-post presence. Unfortunately, similar to Al Jefferson, he demonstrates defensive shortcomings. While he is younger than Gasol and having the potential to develop, I believe that Gasol already embodies everything Monroe can do plus better passing and ability to stretch the floor. Furthermore, I can't imagine either Monroe or Gasol coming off the bench, though a Gasol/Monroe/Aldridge frontcourt tandem could be intriguing, a Gasol/Monroe pairing could be disastrous defensively whenever it's played. Finally, the question for the Spurs always comes back to who to trade, the Spurs don't exactly have many assets to trade.<br />
<br />
Let's for a moment consider Leonard and Aldridge untouchable. Parker is an unrealistic trade chip simply because of his mileage, furthermore, I'm sure the Spurs would want to keep Parker around for his career, I think he deserves it. Beyond that, trading Parker would require us to rethink our PG situation, unless Murray is ready to play immediately (and Summer League has shown he's not quite there consistently yet) I don't see any situation in which trading Parker would be a significant upgrade for the team. Ultimately, it's not worth trading Parker, while having lost a step, is still a solid starting point guard, for a bench big. That simply leaves two viable trade options: Danny Green and Patty Mills. So the question for any trade is whether or not we've given up on Danny Green (and/or Patty Mills).<br />
<br />
To me Mills is slightly more expendable, but being someone who knows the system, he also is someone I would be reticent to trade. While being among the many who were disappointed in Danny Green's performance this year, I still cannot fail to stress enough the impact Danny makes at the defensive end. I think that alone makes him worth keeping. Logically it makes little sense to trade Danny for another 3-and-D guy, and while some might say Simmons is ready to step up, I don't know that weakening our wing rotation would be worthwhile. You'd have to throw something really intriguing at me to think about it (Rudy Gay for Danny Green straight up?)<br />
<br />
So what do we need? Well, I still don't really believe that Anderson is a real SF, but is a skinny small-ball PF. He definitely still needs to put on some weight and strength so he doesn't get bullied, and while he can use his length to compensate, we definitely have seen how he can't stay in front of some of the quicker SFs off the bounce. Thus, I think the 12th and 13th roster spots should probably include at least one wing player (similar to like a Rasual Butler). While Dedmon is a start, I think maybe another athletic defensive-minded PF/C would also be in the books. Maybe we find another diamond in the rough like Boban. This also depends on whether or not a trade happens.<br />
<br />
That's my take.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-68035636068936399682016-05-03T13:38:00.003-07:002016-05-03T13:38:27.321-07:00"Letting them Play": Officiating the Last Seconds of an NBA GameOfficiating an NBA game is hard.<br />
<br />
Heck, officiating any sort of organized sport is pretty difficult. Someone is probably going walk away from some play unhappy. At some point in time during the game there will be a guy that thinks the dude with a whistle is an idiot.<br />
<br />
The NBA game of basketball moves so quickly that it's difficult to get all the plays. Invariably, something gets missed. Yet there are rules to the game for a reason. I'm not advocating we become hidebound and call every single rule, but I think the whole concept of "letting them play", especially in late game situations is, well, frankly kind of dumb. You undermine yourself.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>I don't claim to be a basketball genius, in fact, I probably know less about the rules than some of you think I do. Yet throughout my time following the NBA, there has always been this sentiment that in late game situations the refs should "swallow their whistles" and just "let them play". To that, I say, that's stupid.<br />
<br />
I've thought about this for a while but I decided to write about it in light of the <a href="http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/playoff/article/Wild-ending-featured-Spurs-fan-grabbing-Steven-7389300.php">crazy final possession</a> of the Spurs-Thunder Game 2 of the Western Conference Semi-finals. A lot of stuff happened there. The NBA came out and said Waiters should of been called for an offensive foul, people pointing out that Leonard grabbed Westbrook's jersey, Manu stepped on the line, Ibaka fouling every Spur under the basket at once, Waiters jumping on the inbound, some lady in the front row grabbing Adams (after he plows into her). It was ugly, and it was messy, and certainly while the officiating impacted the outcome of the game to a certain degree, the Spurs all understood it's their own fault that they were in that position to begin with.<br />
<br />
To be honest, I've been pretty upset with generally inconsistent officiating in general, particularly in the playoffs. I kind of understand Rick Carlisle's statement that the Thunder make "<a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2016/story/_/id/15305180/rick-carlisle-says-kevin-durant-oklahoma-city-thunder-took-cheap-shots-dallas-mavericks">non-basketball physical escalations</a>". I recall watching Game 1 and seeing Russell Westbrook wrap his arms around Danny Green after not getting a rebound and physical push/hoist him out of bounds, it was a common foul. In a subsequent play David West and Enes Kanter were fighting for rebounding position and West threw Kanter off him onto the floor, David West was awarded a technical foul. Strange to me.<br />
<br />
Yet that's not what I'm looking at either. This whole concept of "letting them play" is this old-school concept of trying to be tougher, yet what's the purpose of the rules if not to define the boundaries of the game. Look, I understand that officiating is often times a judgment call, there's a fine line between a foul and a physical play, and generally, I think the officiating crew does the best job they can. However, when people tell the officials to "let them play" I think that just undermines the whole concept of an organized sport. I get that nobody wants to see long periods of stoppage of play where refs are reviewing to make sure the call is right, but if the game is on the line, it's kind of important.<br />
<br />
Oftentimes, when I'm attending an event or meeting, people will wait for stragglers or the habitually late to show up before starting. They're being "considerate". Which I get to some degree, but then it begs the question, why are you punishing the people who actually showed up when you asked them to? Similarly, not calling fouls just because "it's the end of a game" is essentially punishing a team for playing by the rules. It sends the message, it's in my favor to cheat or break the rules because the refs aren't going to call it anyways.<br />
<br />
So refs. You see a foul, blow your whistle. That's your job.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-19705148232815442522016-04-25T14:22:00.002-07:002016-04-25T14:22:49.905-07:00Unfettered Optimism: The Emergence of Kawhi LeonardKawhi Leonard is my new favorite player.<br />
<br />
I didn't follow basketball much growing up. Sure, I watched the Jazz-Bulls finals in the 90s (rooting for the Mailman) and part of the Lakers' finals runs in the 2000s. One team that really stuck with me though, for some reason, was the starting 5 of the 1999 San Antonio Spurs championship team. As I grew older, I began to respect a player like David Robinson much more. That lead me to Tim Duncan. I was enamored with the seemingly simple way Duncan played. The footwork, the rebounding, the post-play, it was simple, but elegant, it was all stuff you would hear about how to do in a basketball camp.<br />
<br />
Even as the team transitioned to being the Tony Parker show, I still staunchly held to the long-held ideology, that if the Spurs ever needed a bucket, you could just throw it into Duncan in the post, and everything would work out fine.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Then came that stretch after 2007. Tim Duncan started looking older, Manu Ginobili started looking more fragile. The Richard Jefferson and DeJuan Blair experiments happened. The cycle of vets cycling through the door (e.g. Kurt Thomas and Antonio McDyess) continued. The Spurs weren't winning championships. George Hill was good but he wasn't a difference maker. Shooters like Gary Neal and Roger Mason just weren't enough to push them over the top. Despite being a draft steal, DeJuan Blair showed enough limitations offensively that we knew wasn't going to work out. Rather than adding athleticism, Richard Jefferson merely proved to the world that Chip Engelland was truly a shot doctor as he coached Jefferson's 3-point shot to over 40% while shooting more 3s per game.<br />
<br />
Then came the 2011 NBA draft.<br />
<br />
Due to their consistent regular season success, the Spurs only had the 29th pick in the 1st round (which they used on Cory Joseph). A decision was made. George Hill was traded to the Pacers for the 15th pick (just out of the lottery), who was Kawhi Leonard.<br />
<br />
It would be easy to say, "and the rest is history..." but of course we haven't gotten to the rest yet. Kawhi Leonard was a billeted as a defensive specialist. We all knew coming into the draft that he was physically gifted (6'7" with a 7'3" wingspan and hands the size of Shaq's). DraftExpress had listed him as being at best being comparable to Shawn Marion. That was exciting enough, the Matrix was solid on those Phoenix teams. That's what we all thought he'd be, athletic, slasher, lock-down defense, hitting the occasional open 3, grabbing all the rebounds.<br />
<br />
We look at him now, the 2014 Finals MVP, back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year in 2015 and 2016, and an All Star in 2016. I don't want to go overly the top with the statistics because you've probably seen them all before, but let's consider where he's gotten to in his 5th year in the league (<i>all statistics from basketball-reference.com</i>):<br />
<ul>
<li>15th in points per game at 21.2</li>
<li>19th in total points scored in the season at 1523</li>
<li>12th in steals per game at 1.8</li>
<li>14th in total steals in the season at 128</li>
<li>3rd in 3 pt shooting percentage at 44.3%</li>
<li>11th in free throw percentage at 87.4%</li>
<li>6th in PER at 26.0</li>
<li>8th in true shooting percentage at 61.6%</li>
<li>12th in effective field goal percentage at 56.5%</li>
<li>7th in offensive rating at 121.4</li>
<li>3rd in defensive rating at 96.0</li>
<li>7th in offensive win shares at 8.3</li>
<li>2nd in defensive win shares at 5.5</li>
<li>4th in overall win shares at 13.7</li>
<li>4th in overall box plus/minus at +8.3</li>
</ul>
<div>
There's more I could list, but that's a pretty impressive list of things to be considered in the top 20 of the league. Any one of them is fairly impressive, but so many across so many different things is what makes Kawhi stand out. Yet beyond that, Kawhi has stood out even to the eye test. While he's not flashy and showy like some of the other big name stars, such as Kobe Bryant, Russell Westbrook, or Stephen Curry, Kawhi quietly and efficiently gets it done, much in the same manner as his teammate Tim Duncan did before him.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
When you watch Kawhi and his development as an offensive juggernaut in addition to already being considered the best defensive player in the league, the first thing you notice is that Kawhi doesn't really have any go to move. While that was a knock on Kevin Garnett during his time in Minnesota, somehow it seems to work for Kawhi. For Kawhi it's all about efficiency. While he doesn't have any offensive move that really stands out, it's more because he's elevated all aspects of his offensive game more so than him being a jack-of-all-trades, master of nothing. Shooting off triple threat, post up, or catch-and-shoot situations all seem pretty natural for him. While he doesn't have the flair of some of the players we've grown accustomed to watching, for me, it's become kind of weird when Kawhi misses some of these shots. Tack onto that the continually stalwart defense that creates those fast-break dunks, it's not difficult to imagine how Kawhi has turned into, in the words of Charles Barkley, "the best basketball player on the planet".</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I think there's something about his quiet demeanor that really appeals to me. He seems like a genuinely humble guy that just loves playing basketball. There's a certain amount of that Popovich quality of having "gotten over himself", being passionate about the game but at the end of the day understanding, it's just a game. Yet why Kawhi merits this post here today is not because of how far he's come, it's certainly leaps and bounds further than any of us could have imagined, but why I'm so stoked at the emergence of Kawhi Leonard is because we can see, he's still getting better. He hasn't reached his ceiling yet. I can't wait to see when he does.</div>
GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-9123266564785818342016-02-16T15:38:00.002-08:002016-02-16T15:38:22.629-08:00Spurs Trade Deadline Speculation ManiaSo the trade deadline is coming up (this Thursday) and there are trade rumors and speculations flying around. That means that the Spurs will likely be noted for how they will not do anything and thereby successfully have navigated the NBA trade deadline. That being said, it doesn't mean that the entire Spurs nation and beyond isn't speculating what brilliant move that R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich will come up with.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
The question when considering any sort of trade speculation is what does the team need and what does the team have to give up. With that, I'd like to say, as much as I might fancy a <a href="http://www.morningnewsusa.com/nba-trade-rumors-spurs-hawks-discuss-al-horford-danny-green-trade-2357720.html">Danny Green for Al Horford swap</a>, if we contextualize it within this season, it makes relatively little sense, especially given that <a href="http://www.myajc.com/news/sports/basketball/breaking-splitter-to-have-season-ending-surgery/nqRC6/">Tiago Splitter is having season ending surgery</a>. Unless we plan on trading Boris Diaw for an upgrade at the wing, adding Al Horford, while a nice luxury, makes the Spurs unnecessarily thin on the wings. While I think Jonathon Simmons has great potential, I don't know that more of him and Kyle Anderson (and Rasual Butler) would spell success for the Spurs, especially for this pivotal season (potentially Duncan and Ginobili's last).<br />
<br />
Let's consider the Spurs' roster, it's legitimately three deep at every position:<br />
<br />
PG - Tony Parker, Patty Mills, Ray McCallum<br />
SG - Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Jonathon Simmons<br />
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson, Rasual Butler<br />
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge, David West, Matt Bonner<br />
C - Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw, Boban Marjanovic<br />
<br />
So who's expendable? The better question perhaps is not that, but rather, <i>who would be able to get us anything of value from another team?</i> The short list that I was able to come up with was this:<br />
<br />
Danny Green<br />
Patty Mills<br />
Kyle Anderson<br />
Boris Diaw<br />
<br />
Arguably you could say that David West and Boban Marjanovic are on the bubble as well, but I don't think that they're moving any time soon. Given that Ray McCallum, Rasual Butler, and Matt Bonner all make less than $1M, I'd consider them filler at best.<br />
<br />
The next question we have to consider is: <i>what are we looking to improve?</i><br />
<br />
Some might say shot blocking. Which may be a fair assessment. Despite Aldridge playing better defense than anyone really anticipated, it is a fair argument to say that the only true rim protector on the team is Duncan. Is Al Horford really the solution? He's solid defensively but he's also noted to be slightly undersized as a C, which is why they traded for Tiago Splitter in the first place. No one else really comes to mind as Tyson Chandler is way too expensive and Sacramento probably won't part with DeMarcus Cousins.<br />
<br />
If we consider the wings, one name that pops up is Trevor Ariza, but is he that significant of an upgrade of Danny Green? Or would he be worth the loss of versatility of Diaw? One of those two would have to go.<br />
<br />
Two names I'd consider would be Jae Crowder and Evan Turner, but I'm not sure Boston would give them up, especially for anything that the Spurs can offer.<br />
<br />
At the end of the day, it just doesn't seem like there's any major move that the Spurs make to improve their chances.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-65922644664400576502015-12-18T11:29:00.000-08:002015-12-18T11:29:26.928-08:00Why are we considered "boring"?<div class="MsoNormal">
A blowout is a blowout right?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Then why is it that we are so fascinated by the Warriors
destroying the Suns or Nets but not the Spurs obliterating the Jazz or Hawks? I
mean let’s think about it, let’s take a look at the last 5 games where both the
Spurs and Warriors have the same exact record 4-1. The Warriors played the
Nets, Pacers, Celtics, Bucks, and Suns. The score differentials were +16, +8,
+5, -13, +25 respectively. Sure, we can give them some slack for most of those
games being away, sure we can say that they had a back-to-back (and their loss
came on the second night of one), but I don’t think those things are huge
mitigating factors, and besides, if you are gassed on the second night of a
back-to-back after going to double overtime in the first game, it’s both a
credit to the opposing team and kind of your own fault that you got the two
extra periods anyway. The Spurs played the Raptors, Lakers, Hawks, Jazz, and
Wizards. I would posit that the strength of schedule based solely on the
opponents is comparable. The point differentials were -3, +22, +25, +37, +19. I
mean, that’s crazy. Look, I think both teams are great, the margin of
difference in point differential is less than 0.2 so I don’t want to take anything
away from either team, but I am curious as to why people would be more willing
to watch a Golden State 50 point victory over a San Antonio 50 point victory.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
This kind of came up for me because Mike Prada and Ben
Epstein, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/2015/12/16/10310038/san-antonio-spurs-success-dominance-boring-podcast">on an episode of the Limited Upside podcast</a>, speculated a couple of
reasons. Everything from the Spurs’ consistency of excellence (they’ve won
almost 60% of their games since their inception in 1967 in the ABA as the Dallas
Chaparrals and have not had a season with a win percentage lower than 61% since
1996 which incidentally landed them Tim Duncan) to the color of their jerseys
(the Spurs’ “boring” black and silver to the Warriors’ yellow) came up. Additionally,
there has been a recent slew of articles talking about how nobody is talking
about the Spurs, but should be. Yet there still seems a general consensus that
the Spurs are playing the same boring old basketball for the past 19 years of
Tim Duncan. Granted, there was some exposure to a brilliant and beautiful game
when the Spurs showcased a precision machine that summarily dismantled the
reigning 2-time champion Miami Heat in 2014, but even despite all that, the
Spurs still cannot get much more than basketball junkies and color commentators
(I see you Jeff Van Gundy) to appreciate what they are doing. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I think there’s something to be said about what Ben Epstein
brings up regarding consistency. As is commonly said, “familiarity breeds
contempt”, so being consistently at the top of the NBA, it’s sort of become the
norm for the Spurs to win. I have a friend, who (not a Spurs fan), whenever
asked at the beginning of the season how he thinks the season will pan out will
always say, “The Spurs are going to win it all. Because that’s what they do.”
So I think there’s something to that. However, I think there are other
pervasive reasons that can be found as well.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><b>1.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal;">
</span></b><!--[endif]--><b>Quietly,
consistently good<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So this goes back to the whole, “they’re the Spurs, they
should win” sort of mentality. But if you look at their consistency, it’s built
occasionally at the expense of short-term success and accolades. In a 2014
championship video there was a pretty cool series where Gregg Popovich, Tim Duncan,
Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili sit in a circle and talk about what got them to
where they are. There is a bit in that series where Pop apologizes to his “Big
3” for ruining their individual statistics and thanks them for allowing him to
do so for the success of the organization. If we’ve paid any attention to the
Spurs in the last few seasons we know that’s entirely true. We also know that’s
why Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili can still play effective basketball as they
push 40. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Yet what this quiet consistency means is that they don’t
really go out to break any big time records. If they do, then they do, but they
don’t really care or talk about it. While they do break records, they break
quiet ones like a franchise record for consecutive home wins. They don’t try to
build up giant winning streaks or a tremendous record. They just try to get to
the playoffs with as healthy a roster as possible and hopefully with homecourt
advantage.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When you watch enough Spurs’ games there’s something you’ll
notice. Generally speaking, you don’t see big runs where their players just can’t
seem to miss. However, you’ll hear a lot if you listen to the commentators
something along the lines of, “and that’s an 8-2 run for the Spurs” or something
like that. The Spurs aren’t really interested in that 30 point comeback but
they quietly put together a string of small runs that in the end ultimately
wind up as the 100-80 victory that they are looking for. Their approach to the
season as a whole is somewhat similar. While they occasionally might rack up that
10+ game winning streak, but rather with a bunch of little 5 game win streaks
they quietly end the season with their 55+ wins. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<b><br /></b></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><b>2.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal;">
</span></b><!--[endif]--><b>Deadpan<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
They don’t seem to react to anything. Yes, there are some
crazy moments when you have to celebrate, but the bench seems to get more
excited about things on the floor than the players on the floor. You look at
players like Russell Westbrook or Stephen Curry and they’re always screaming
and pounding their chests (or at James Harden who looks like he’s preparing to
put on his make-up or something), but the Spurs react to a thunderous dunk the
same way they do a clutch three the same way they do a layup. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When they speak to the media, the only person of any real
interest ultimately is Gregg Popovich, because he’s mean to journalists that
ask dumb questions, and I guess journalists love trolls (to be honest, a lot of
his wry and cutting observations are not unfounded). When the players are
interviewed it’s a lot of the same, “I think we did pretty well, but I think we
can do better” jargon. When asked about their successes the players (and Pop)
seem ignorant to a point of surprise. The message is pretty clear, no one in
this locker room knew (until the media brought it up) or cared. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><b>3.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal;">
</span></b><!--[endif]--><b>Good
to great, it looks too easy<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m not a great basketball player. I went to a couple
basketball camps as a kid and I recall teammates that cheered when I scored a
single bucket, all camp. My brother thought I was going to be 6-5 (which in
pickup basketball is monstrous, plus I’m Asian, so also in that context is also
monstrous), so he taught me a couple of basic post moves he picked up from
watching Vlade Divac. When I did play some friendly basketball in college with
friends I would tell them simply, put the ball up, I’ll get it if you miss.
Since, I played volleyball, my timing and anticipation for where the ball would
be was decent and I could get a fair share of rebounds. That’s kind of the
beauty of the game of basketball, it’s pretty simple. However, in short
summary, my shooting is shaky, I can’t really dribble, I’m not very fast, and I
don’t jump very high, I’m just kind of big and relatively tall. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Where is this going? Well, if you’ve ever played basketball
(or any sport for that matter) you come to realize the difference between a
professional athlete and an average person. For example, in my limited
basketball circles, I don’t really have to worry about people dunking. For most
people, there’s a certain amount of appreciation for someone else that can do
something that we can’t. For all the things we can do, it just seems mundane.
When the average person watches sports they want to see amazing.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ben Epstein, in his conversation with Mike Prada, brings up
something interesting, in discussing how sometimes if someone makes something
difficult look effortless, we lose appreciation of it. I think that’s kind of
true, but I don’t think that captures the essence of it. I would argue that we
can’t appreciate how difficult something is because of how easy other people
make it, and therefore we can’t really appreciate what they’re doing because we
think it’s mundane.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Allen Iverson was such a compelling player because he was
good, yes, but also because he made scoring look so effortless. Yet it didn’t
diminish his scoring, why? It was because he was a small guy. It would be like
some 5 foot middle schooler lighting up an adult YMCA league. We get that with
that size disadvantage, the ease with which he did what he did is
extraordinary. Likewise for Steph Curry, he makes making 3s look easy, in fact,
he makes hard 3s look easy. Part of that appreciation is because we know that
we cannot make 1 out of every 2 pull up 40 footer. We might get lucky and make
1 out of 10 but the consistency with which Curry pulls it off is what wows us.
Likewise, players like Lebron James, Blake Griffin, and Paul George make
dunking look easy, we know we can’t do that, and so when they do it
effortlessly it’s a sight to behold. When we look at someone like Nate
Robinson, we are even more wowed, because he’s as tall (or short) as the rest
of us, and he can dunk. The reason Kobe Bryant is so compelling is because he
takes and makes hard shots.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When we look at the Spurs we aren’t awed because we don’t
see that flair. Sure, we might get a fancy Tony Parker spin move here and
there, we might see a crazy Boris Diaw or Manu Ginobili pass, or a solid dunk
from Kawhi Leonard, but in all honesty spot up open jumpers and open layups
aren’t that exciting. The Spurs’ mantra (especially these past few seasons) has
been going from good to great. Giving up a good shot for a great one. What is a
great shot? It’s not a fall-away 20 footer with a man in your face. It’s an
open layup or a catch-and-shoot situation with nobody within 4 feet of you.
Nobody pays to go watch layup lines and shootarounds. Yet that’s what the Spurs’
offense generates and that’s what their defense takes away. They’re not jumping
over people, they’re not really shooting from the other end of the court, they’re
just doing all the things that a high school coach tells his kids. Set solid
picks, get to your spots, find the open man. Sure that’s kind of an
oversimplification of the Spurs’ offense, but I think that’s what it boils down
to. We can’t appreciate the Spurs because we don’t understand how difficult it
is to put players in a position where scoring is as easy as a shooting drill or
layup line, consistently. <o:p></o:p></div>
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When people watch basketball, they are awed by players that
are good at what they do, but less so by a system that is good at what it does.
That’s not to say you can randomly plug anybody in there and it would work, but
if we look at the Spurs personnel, outside of Duncan, Parker, Ginobili,
Leonard, and Kyle Anderson, we can’t really say that other teams haven’t had
their shot with these players (I’m also not really counting all stars like
David West and LaMarcus Aldirdge). The Spurs’ bench wins games, teams see this,
but let’s be honest, a lot of the Spurs bench players have been around. Boris
Diaw, for all his passing acumen, played with Atlanta, Phoenix, and Charlotte before
ending up at the Spurs. How did he end up a Spur? By being cut by a
historically bad 7-59 Charlotte team. Patty Mills played 2 seasons in Portland
before coming to the Spurs, subsequently becoming one of the better backup point
guards in the league. Danny Green was cut multiple times before solidifying
himself as a 3 and D player comparable to guys who get paid more than him to do
the same thing (e.g. DeMarre Carroll, Khris Middleton). If we look at other players,
nobody knew about Garrett Temple, Alonzo Gee, or Gary Neal until the Spurs got
a hold of them. George Hill is a solid starting point guard that nobody
expected to be drafted where the Spurs took him (solid enough to trade away the
pick that ended up as Kawhi Leonard for him). Matt Bonner has been around as
has Rasual Butler. But I think most telling are my last two examples, two
undrafted players in Jonathon Simmons and Boban Marjonovic. It wasn’t as though
the Spurs were hiding these guys, they were undrafted. Yet how are they able to
contribute to one of the best bench squads in the league? Because the system
knows how to put them in positions to succeed.<o:p></o:p></div>
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I’m not saying that the Spurs are a magical land where you
can stick anyone in there and succeed. However, the system is one that
understands how to optimize the strength of the players and mitigate their
weaknesses for the greater success of the organization as a whole. There’s a
certain degree of hubris for the general populace that has never played
organized basketball (I certainly haven’t). The game inherently is fairly
simple, get the ball in the bucket. We look at the things the Spurs do and we
think (somewhat arrogantly), “hey, I could do that”. And there’s a certain
amount of truth to that. Almost anyone who has played pickup basketball can set
a pick, hit an open jumper or layup, throw a chest pass to the corner. It’s
because we find the fundamental actions to be simple, that we dismiss it as
dull. We focus on the little individual action and thereby miss the bigger
picture. We want to be dazzled by those that can do what we cannot. Yes, the
shot at the end that scores the two points is easy. It’s supposed to be. That’s
what makes it a great shot. What we have to learn to appreciate is the whole
process that gets them there.<o:p></o:p></div>
GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-5688294953681081762014-08-21T12:18:00.002-07:002014-08-21T12:18:24.466-07:00Unfettered Optimism: From BoBo to SloMoLook, let's be honest, if you're nickname in college is "Slo-Mo", which is universally short for "slow motion" I'm not entirely positive that it's a compliment. I know this is supposed to be one of my super optimistic, "Spurs are going to be awesome" posts, but I want to get out of the way first, that I have many rather significant reservations about this year's draft pick Kyle Anderson. I don't deny that he perhaps has the unique skill-set that the Spurs may be looking for, that is, a big man who can sort of play like a point guard, and thus many pundits have been hailing the Spurs' draft pick as the second coming of Boris Diaw. Now, I'll be the first to admit, that there are times when I get overly optimistic, and while Boris Diaw 2.0 isn't exactly some claim to superstardom, I want everyone to just slow down for a second. I know the Spurs just obliterated the Heat in the Finals, and I know that the Spurs have a strong history of finding diamonds in the rough of the late first-round of the draft (i.e. Tony Parker, George Hill, Luis Scola, Leandro Barbosa, etc...), but let's take a step back and take a look at what we have here before we start handing out any accolades.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>I don't know if there's a big difference between someone who used to be athletic and isn't quite as athletic anymore as opposed to someone who wasn't ever really athletic to begin with. Before we start drawing the Boris Diaw comparisons, the one thing that I have to point out is that despite his girth, Diaw is actually a quite athletic player. He has a quick first step and explodes to the basket faster than many people anticipate. After reviewing some footage of Kyle Anderson, I'm not convinced he can beat anybody off the dribble. He's not really explosive, at all. He literally looks like he's moving slower than everyone else. When he has that sort of trouble in the NCAA I have hard time believing he'll do any better in the NBA. Frankly, he makes Matt Bonner look fast.<br />
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That being said, this is a post about unfettered optimism. First things first, I'm confident that Pop will find a way to make the most of him and coupled with the other coaches and player development personnel, the Spurs are the team that will be able to get the most out of Kyle Anderson, whatever that may end up being. Anderson's biggest asset is quite simply his basketball IQ and instincts, which is something you can't really teach a player, so that's a relatively big asset for him. The question is now how he fills into that with his game at the NBA level.<br />
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Anderson is listed at 6-8 at 230 lbs, which, on the onset draws somewhat favorable comparisons to Boris Diaw, who is listed at 6-8, 235 lbs. While the weight is similar, Diaw just seems much more solid and immovable in the post whereas Anderson seems just kind of skinny, but I could just be misjudging Anderson's size. I think if Anderson builds some strength he will be a solid high post passer and initiator. While there may be some call for him to put the ball on the floor, I feel like he's not fast enough for that to be extraordinarily useful, granted if it's another big PF that's guarding him that may not be a huge issue, but I think the first thing that Anderson should develop to make him quite dangerous is simply a post-up game. The most dangerous thing about Diaw is really not that he's good at anything in particular, but he's good enough at enough different things that he can capitalize on any situation. If a bigger, slower defender is on him, Diaw doesn't hesitate to put the ball on the floor, if there's a smaller defender, Diaw quickly sticks out his butt and tries to get good post position to back his man down.<br />
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I think Anderson can be effective, but I believe there are two places that he needs to start. The first for me is simply strength. Even for his size, watching some tape of him, I feel like Anderson gets pushed around a bit. If he builds some upper body strength, it will improve both his rebounding, and his ability to get into good offensive position (as that is quite important in the Spurs' offense). Since the Spurs are quite content to use every weapon in their arsenal, you'll often see a pick-and-pop with Diaw setting the pick, flaring out for a three then attacking off the dribble on an over-aggressive closeout. This creates all sorts of problems for the defense and I believe that Anderson can fill a similar role, albeit perhaps not quite as effectively as Diaw. While he may not have the dribbles Diaw does, Anderson does boast a 7-2 wingspan, which, coupled with improved upper body strength, I think can help him become a more effective rebounder than Diaw. Additionally, I have the utmost confidence in Chip Engelland, the Spurs' shooting coach in making Anderson something of a threat from three-point and mid-range.<br />
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Ultimately, I believe that Anderson has the potential to be something of a gap filler. He's not going to be quite as versatile as Boris Diaw, who can guard SFs like LeBron for short stints, but if he builds some strength, improves his rebounding and jump shot, I think he would be able to guard larger players fairly effectively (as Diaw often does) and gives Pop a highly versatile lineup option of pairing both Anderson and Diaw together. At the very least it gives Tim Duncan some more rest, but frankly, if Anderson pans out, I can see a lineup of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, Boris Diaw, and Kyle Anderson doing some crazy things that keep us talking about the Spurs.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-38853713580487887892014-07-29T09:04:00.002-07:002014-07-29T09:04:29.527-07:00Buying in to the SystemIf the 2014 NBA Finals did anything, it was to once again reveal to us how amazing the concept of "system" basketball is. We often forget of how important the role players on each team are, in any championship team, the Spurs didn't rediscover this, they've known this all along, all 2014 did was to re-emphasize that point by the popularizing of role players like Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, and Danny Green against arguably three of the biggest superstar names in the NBA in recent history in LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. After a struggle against the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, which ended up being a brilliant chess match between Rick Carlisle and Gregg Popovich over 7 games, the Spurs handily defeated three teams that arguably had the hottest stars of the league. First it was the unexpected but dangerous duo of LaMarcus Aldridge, arguably one of the best if not the best PF currently in the league, with a mid-range game that makes him neigh unguardable at 6-11, and the up and coming PG Damian Lillard. After that, the team that was pegged to be locked in the next 5 NBA Finals with the Miami Heat, after their summary decimation of the Spurs in 2012, the Oklahoma City Thunder, featuring an unparalleled scorer in Kevin Durant and a blistering combination of athleticism and energy in Russell Westbrook (incidentally, the Thunder have not made it back to the Finals since). All of which led up to the first Finals rematch since Michael Jordan's Bulls faced off twice against a John Stockton and Karl Malone led Jazz in 1995 and 1996.<div>
<a name='more'></a>Despite looking vulnerable coming into the 2014 Finals, the Heat were the defending champions, having won two championships in a row, and still featured arguably the best player of this generation in LeBron James. With Dwyane Wade looking spry (in the Indiana rematch), and Chris Bosh doing his usual Chris Bosh-type basketball things, which typically won games, the series looked at the very least to be another closely contested 7-game classic series as we enjoyed in the year prior. Things looked shaky in Game 1 as the Spurs jumped to a 110-95 victory a midst a somewhat controversial HVAC malfunction, creating a sauna in the arena and causing LeBron to cramp up and be unable to play late in the game. Some fans may argue that LeBron not playing was the difference maker and others might say that LeBron being in the game would have made no difference given how the Spurs offense was clicking towards the end of the game. Truth be told, we'll never know.</div>
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It looked promising for the pro-Heat supporters in Game 2 as LeBron returned in Game 2 with a vengeance, scoring 35 points, grabbing 10 rebounds, and willing the Heat to a 98-96 victory over the Spurs, taking home court advantage away from the Spurs. From all accounts it looked to be another classic back-and-forth series that we so enjoyed in 2013, where no team was able to gain a clear cut advantage, and both teams kept trading games, unable to win or lose 2 in a row.</div>
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Then Game 3 happened. Two major adjustments were made by the Spurs. First, Boris Diaw was insert into the starting lineup, replacing Tiago Splitter. Then, Pop told Kawhi Leonard to be more aggressive. While the Heat scored a respectable 25 points in each of the 1st and 2nd quarters, they were still outmatched by the Spurs' 71 point first half on 76% shooting. I'm going to let that sink in a bit. 71 points on 76% in 24 minutes. The Spurs ended up cooling off, and "only" shooting 59% for the game, but the blistering first half (especially that 41 point, 86% shooting first quarter) had done its damage. While the Heat rallied in the 3rd quarter, the Spurs made enough shots to walk away with a convincing 111-92 victory. Oh, and incidentally, Kawhi put together an impressive 29 point, 4 rebound, 2 assist, 2 steal, 2 block evening, way to be aggressive.</div>
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Going into Game 4, everyone expected the Heat to bounce back. LeBron was quoted as saying, "That's what we do." And everyone felt that the hot shooting the Spurs enjoyed in Game 3 was something of a fluke, it wasn't going to happen again. Even Gregg Popovich said, "I don't think we'll shoot 76% in the first half ever again." So as a Spurs fan, I braced myself for the Heat to come roaring back, making the Spurs-haters look smart because of how LeBron made the Spurs look old and obsolete. Yet, where the Spurs' offense cooled off, the defense ratcheted up, the Spurs, still managing to shoot their way to a respectable 55 point first half, were also bolstered by their ability to hold the Heat to only 36 in that same half. While LeBron was able to go for 28 points and 8 rebounds, Wade was held to an uncharacteristic 10 points on 23% shooting. Meanwhile, at the other end, Kawhi continued trucking along with 20 points and 14 rebounds. The Spurs walked away with a shocking 107-86 victory. Not shocking because the Spurs won, shocking because the Spurs won by so much. The Heat never had a chance.</div>
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LeBron came out firing in Game 5, and taking the first quarter advantage, the Spurs rallied and never looked back. That was the story of the series. It's not that the Heat were bad team, on the contrary, they were quite good, the Spurs were just that much better.</div>
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There's a saying in basketball, "you can't outrun the ball". I think the Spurs proved that. It's how they solved the Miami defense, a defense predicated on scrambling and trapping, which is able to "turn it on" by simply scrambling and trapping faster and harder. However, at the end of the day, a person moves slower than a pass, and no matter how fast the Heat players moved, they couldn't catch up with the Spurs' ball movement. I imagine that must be somewhat demoralizing, and I'm sure that the Heat players recognized that the way their defense functioned, it wasn't going to work against the Spurs, given how well they were playing. </div>
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Champions recognize that the system and team are what wins them the Larry O'Brien trophy at the end of the season, while a large part may be the mercurial play of transcendental players, like LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal, Michael Jordan, etc... They all know that there is no championship without those role players stepping up. Spurs fans know that we don't have 5 championships without the likes of Malik Rose, Jaren Jackson, Steve Kerr Bruce Bowen, Brent Barry, Fabricio Oberto, Robert Horry, and Michael Finley. As much as our championships rest with Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan, they're not there without those other guys. LeBron knew that without Mike Miller and Ray Allen they wouldn't have won in 2013. </div>
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Stars are important, because when the system breaks down you can go to the stars for a bucket. However, when the system works and everyone buys-in, the Spurs have shown us that this is what basketball is about. What makes a champion? It's not the superstar plays, it's not the game-winners, it's the understanding by the team leader that this game cannot be won individually. That's the lesson that the Spurs have held to, that's the lesson that both David Robinson and Tim Duncan bought into, that's the lesson perhaps that loses Spurs players individual awards and accolades, but that's the lesson that wins championships. While Popovich is a brilliant coach, I believe that most coaches out there have a system that can win championships. Be it Pop's motion offense, Phil Jackson's triangle, Rick Adelman's Princeton offense, or Jerry Sloan's pick-and-roll, systems are designed to score buckets. The question isn't in the system, but in whether or not the players buy in, because in a system, the players have to trust one another. While the Thunder and Rockets may have amazing talent on their teams, they will never win a championship until they learn that lesson. Basketball is about a team, and when the team plays at its best, no star can overtake it. </div>
GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-70183934205174820282014-07-16T00:34:00.002-07:002014-07-16T00:34:39.415-07:00Spurs Still Looking StrongComing off of a convincing 2014 NBA Championship, it's really hard to think of how the Spurs could get significantly better. With most of the big free agent names accounted for, and the Spurs not being a landing spot for any of them, free agency for San Antonio fans essentially boils down to who make the Spurs' much speculated but typically irrelevant 15th roster spot.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>I typically love the free agency period of speculation, however, given how well the team played together last year, and how soundly they beat the two-time defending champs in the Miami Heat. The Spurs have essentially come to master a system in which the opposition are need five above-average to exceptional individual defenders (i.e. never help) to stop when it starts rolling, something that no team in the NBA can currently claim to have. Maybe this is the beginning of the resurgence of the two-way player. Then again, maybe not. While it's perhaps unrealistic to expect the Spurs to maintain that inhuman level of precision basketball that they played through 4 games against the Miami Heat, the Spurs sit in essentially the same position while, in my opinion, none of the teams at the top that were in a position to oust the Spurs improved significantly in any meaningful way.<br />
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Unless R.C. Buford decides to surprise everyone (me) and pull the trigger on a fairly major trade, the signings of Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, Matt Bonner, and first round draft pick Kyle Anderson puts the Spurs at their typical roster capacity of 13. While they still have several contracts/options available, a look at their Summer League team has me fairly convinced that the major rotation players are all in place. I anticipate the depth chart to look something as follows:<br />
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PG - Tony Parker, Patty Mills, Cory Joseph<br />
SG - Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Marco Belinelli<br />
SF - Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson<br />
PF - Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner<br />
C - Tiago Splitter<br />
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Now, given how the Spurs play offense, the concept of a depth chart is neigh irrelevant. We could almost simplify the positions to: ball-handler, wing, big, but for a little help with clarification (and to help me count) I put together a somewhat more traditional depth chart. I believe that Aron Baynes has not yet been offered a qualifying offer, and I rather doubt that he will be coming back. While Austin Daye and Jeff Ayres both have guaranteed contracts, they are relatively small, and given that they are both playing on the San Antonio Summer League team, I rather expect that their roster spots are not exactly set in stone. I know that Bryce Cotton's contract is contingent on his making the team (which I honestly don't think will happen). The other news of note is that Davis Bertans (the 2nd round draftee we got in the Kawhi Leonard trade), has come to terms for a buyout with his current overseas team, which may mean he may be coming to the States to play NBA basketball. Now, I just named 5 players and I think we only have 2 roster spots, but I think they're going to be the two spots that don't dress for games regularly, so again, not really a big deal.<br />
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Here I'm going to be entirely honest. I'm not entirely sold on Kyle Anderson. While he has potentially the court vision to be the second coming of Boris Diaw, watching film of Anderson (who somewhat ominously is nicknamed "Slo-Mo") has me questioning his athletic motor's ability to keep up in the NBA. He's THAT slow. I'm not worried about his shot simply because Chip Engelland is amazing, but even then, Boris Diaw was at least somewhat athletic and still kind of is. Granted, he's much more of a savvy player now than before, which I suppose is the best we can hope for with Anderson. While he's listed at 6-9, 230 lbs, I feel like he still looked kind of skinny and got pushed around a bit. So definitely, he needs to build some strength. I'll be honest, the speed of a lot of his drives made him look as slow if not slower than Matt Bonner, now some people might argue that Boris Diaw isn't significantly more athletic, I would kind of beg to differ. That being said, if anyone can figure out how to use him, it'd be Pop. But unless he adds some strength, I don't see Anderson being long in the NBA in any meaningful role, because both with the ball and without the ball, he's not losing his man, at least I can't see it. Prove me wrong Pop. Prove me wrong.<br />
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That being said, looking at all the major free agent moves of the other teams, I'm honestly not overly concerned because I believe that no team took a significant step forward, at least not one that is significant enough to warrant extensive amounts of concern in regards to matching up against the Spurs.<br />
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I'll start with the East, because while there was more movement in the East, keep in perspective that the 9th seeded Phoenix Suns would have been 3rd in the conference had they been an Eastern Conference team. The first item of note is the return of LeBron James to the Cleveland Cavaliers. While that immediately vaults the Cavs into a position to represent the East in the NBA Finals, I'm not positive that they are quite there. While I am bullish on first overall pick Andrew Wiggins, the Cavs other first overall pick Kyrie Irving has shown a knack for being unable to stay on the floor due to injury. That being said, even at full strength, I'm not convinced that the Cavs have the versatility and depth to be considered championship material. Certainly a backcourt of Irving, Wiggins, and James would be quite difficult to deal with, I'm not familiar enough with Wiggins's game to say for sure if it will translate seamlessly. Certainly we can see he has all the tools to be an elite player, but whether or not that impact comes immediately is to be seen. Additionally, even with that loaded backcourt and another potentially dangerous sparkplug in Dion Waiters coming off the bench, their frontcourt rotation of Anderson Varejao, Tristan Thompson, and Anthony Bennett is not exactly something that is wowing me. While Bennett may have been maligned last season due to various reasons, I'm not convinced that he will be THAT good and Thompson has certainly shown he's a good role player at best. Even then, despite the movement of the NBA towards small ball, having Varejao as the only player with any size to play the center position leaves me a little hesitant to be raining any accolades on this team just quite yet. I'm also still not quite sure whether the Cav's ability to play four of their own number 1 overall picks from the draft is impressive or sad.<br />
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Miami also has changed significantly as well. As expected the Big Three of LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh all opted out, originally, it was thought, to restructure their deals in a way to bring in better players to help their NBA Championship chances once again. Initially the Heat sought to woo LeBron by drafting LeBron's favorite player in the draft, Shabazz Napier, and then signing Danny Granger and Josh McRoberts. However, that being not enough to keep LeBron in South Beach, the Heat promptly went to spend their cap space. Wade signed for less as anticipated, they were able to lure as solid an SF replacement as you could get for LeBron in Luol Deng, and they spent the rest on... maxing out Chris Bosh? I suppose, Pat Riley understood that losing LeBron was bad and he could ill afford to lose both LeBron and Bosh, and thus he had to make his offer look much sweeter than that of the Houston Rockets. While the move smacks of desperation, it certainly makes sense. With all of those moves, ultimately, it will be a year of "how well did Pat Riley compensate for the loss of LeBron?" which leads most of us to believe they will be worse.<br />
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Chicago got markedly better, at least on paper, even after trading fan-favorite Luol Deng during another Derrick Rose-less season. Naturally the Bulls (who managed to make the playoffs entirely on defense), will stand to get better by the return of former MVP Rose, but they also managed to add versatile big man Pau Gasol while finally amnestying defensively-limited Carlos Boozer. They also managed to convince arguably the best European player Nikola Mirotic to come play in the NBA as well as traded their two first round picks to Denver for scoring draftee Doug McDermott. On paper it looks better, but I'm not entirely convinced in regards to two things: first, overall depth. It won't be too bad if they manage to bring back Kirk Hinrich and keep Mike Dunleavy, but even then I'm not positive. Draft Express has Mirotic listed as a PF, probably because he's listed at 6-10 and 210 lbs. That being said, he's somewhere right in between Rashard Lewis and Chris Bosh, and I would guess he would be pretty close to Lewis and Bosh when they were younger (Lewis probably shed weight to keep playing as he's older and Bosh added weight to play more center). So I kind of anticipate Thobideau, playing a slower pace, would have Mirotic play an over-sized SF position (somewhat akin to Seattle Rashard Lewis) instead of burying him behind Gasol and Gibson. Certainly he'll see minutes at the PF position, but I imagine the big-man rotation (given Thobideau's minutes-management) to be a combination of Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, and Taj Gibson. There definitely will be an acclimation period with so many new players (I don't think Jimmy Butler is familiar playing with Rose yet), but certainly, on paper, I would peg them as top of the East. If and only if Rose is healthy and plays.<br />
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None of the other teams I feel are really worth mentioning in any significant detail as they didn't make any significant changes and those teams that did didn't make big enough changes to vault them to the top. Toronto and Washington stand to improve as their players improve, but unless Jonas Valanciunas (for Toronto) and John Wall and Bradley Beal (for Washington) suddenly become super stars, I'm not seeing a significant jump. Additionally, the loss of Ariza, while giving Washington the chance to develop Otto Porter, will make Washington's perimeter defense worse, at least in the short run. Detroit and Charlotte are in similar situations, and while Detroit added some shooters (i.e. Caron Butler) and while I trust Stan Van Gundy's ability to right the ship and get the team to a place it needs to be, I'm not positive about where the Pistons end up until they've resolved their frontcourt situation (trading Greg Monroe or Josh Smith, I'd trade Monroe) and Brandon Jennings. Charlotte, while improved, I think still has a ways to go. I like their pieces, but they're still not scaring anyone, especially with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist being as one-dimensional as he is. Brooklyn just gets older and worse (losing Paul Pierce), though maybe it's addition by subtraction, though I can't see them getting any significantly better with another coaching change.<br />
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In the West, the Thunder and Clippers didn't make any major moves. While the addition of Spencer Hawes to the Clippers may signal a more solid frontcourt rotation, most of how the Clippers will improve will be through the player improvement of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, and while I don't think either have reached their ceiling, I'm not sure either are at a point where they make the Clippers significantly better. The Thunder have lost Derek Fisher, Caron Butler, and Thabo Sefolosha, and are attempting to add new young pieces that will bolster their roster. However, I'm still not entirely convinced that their additional pieces make significant improvements over a generally uninspired offense. I know it's considered one of the better ones in the league, but I attribute that more to the simple prowess of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook than any actual offense. I think the 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers offense featuring basically just LeBron James was statistically pretty good too.<br />
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Memphis adds Vince Carter but loses Mike Miller, I guess that's a net gain. Otherwise, they're just more of the same, especially after extending Zach Randolph. While Denver and Utah are intriguing, neither I think are contention material. Same with Phoenix and Golden State (even if they get Kevin Love). Houston whiffed pretty badly in this offseason landing none of LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, or Chris Bosh, instead trading away Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik in order to bring in Trevor Ariza. Not knocking Ariza, but Houston still seems several pieces away from contending. While Harden may be something of a phenom offensively, I feel that his overall game is just over valued, especially due to how exposed he is on defense. While Patrick Beverly may make up for some of it, they don't have anyone that can really shut down larger wings, which I suppose now is what Trevor Ariza is supposed to do. I don't know, something about James Harden just rubs me the wrong way. Additionally, with the shedding of all that salary to make cap space, they lost a lot of versatility in their bench.<br />
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The one team that does intrigue me is Dallas. After re-signing Dirk to a discount, they managed to trade for Tyson Chandler and snag Chandler Parsons, Rashard Lewis, and Richard Jefferson, while retaining Devin Harris. It seems like a solid lineup and with Rick Carlisle running the show it could be a call-back to the 2011 Dallas championship. However, I'm a little tenuous regarding the depth. I'm not positive how much Devin Harris, Raymond Felton, Rashard Lewis, and Richard Jefferson really have in the tank, and I don't know that any one of them are quite so reliable to be the scoring punch off the bench that Jason Terry was in their championship year, and the sparkplug-by-committee sort of mentality seems good in concept, but I kind of iffy in practice.<br />
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While I may be exhibiting irrational confidence in the Spurs' ability to repeat, I honestly can't say that I see any team that has gotten significantly better, and if the Spurs continue to play at the high level they ended 2014 with, it's hard not to see them back in the same place in 2015.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-60899256965819376932013-11-03T06:25:00.002-08:002013-11-03T06:25:39.086-08:00Eastern Conference RankingsThe NBA season is back upon us and like anybody with a supposedly “informed” opinion on the matter, the unenviable task of ranking the teams based purely on speculation Is something we’re supposed to do. Of course, we’re already a couple of days into the season so I’m a little behind, but the sample size has been small enough that we haven’t really set any trends, so I don’t think that this will be a huge dent in my initial projections. Of course, the irony of writing this on the plane is that I, being too stingy to pay for the WiFi on the plane means that I won’t have the backing of internet research at my hands, but at the same time, I won’t have the distraction to prevent me from actually getting around to writing this post. So without further ado, let’s begin; on with the East.<br /><a name='more'></a><div>
1. Chicago Bulls <br /><br />Look, I, with everyone else am super excited about Derrick Rose’s return. Now I remind you, that these rankings are where I anticipate each team falling in the conference standings, so essentially regular season projections. I suppose I could continue to do an overall playoff projection but, then again, I’m not entirely unbiased. One of the reasons the Bulls are up so high is simply because of Tom Thobideau’s ability to get so much more out of so little. While we can argue how Gregg Popovich has developed solid role-players out of nobody (i.e. Danny Green, Roger Mason, Gary Neal, etc…), I don’t think anyone can really deny how Tom Thobideau’s system of tenacity and grit really helps his team overachieve based on its talent if we only look as far back as the Bulls’ injury-plagued playoff run last season; beating the higher seeded Nets, then having a tough gritty out against the eventual champs, the Miami Heat. Battling without Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah hobbled with plantar fasciitis, losing Luol Deng to a terrifying illness and botched spinal tap that saw him lose 15 lbs in the span of days, leaving him essentially bed-ridden, and rallying behind the unlikely heroes in Nate Robinson, Nazr Mohammed, and Jimmy Butler. This year, despite the loss of Robinson, I’m as keen on the development of Butler as anyone, despite my staid belief contrary to popular consensus that he renders Deng obsolete, Deng, though arguably older and more injury prone, being the more complete player, especially offensively, than Butler. They boast, I would argue, one of the most complete starting lineups in the league, and while their season has gotten off to a rocky start with an opening night loss to the defending champs, Derrick Rose is quickly working back towards getting his rhythm back, and will be the game changer that the Bulls needed to trigger their offense to complement their stifling defense. With Rose healthy, While bringing back most of the old core, the starting 5 will improve as Butler continues to develop. The only major addition the Bulls had this year (besides getting Rose back from injury) was the addition of Mike Dunleavy, which I believe shores up the reserve spots for the wings, allowing for more flexibility as Thobideau (hopefully) seeks to manage his players’ regular seasons minutes a little better than he previously did. That being said, I can definitely see the Bulls, behind Rose, racing out to another league-best, or at the very least conference-best record, for home court advantage. <br /><br />2. Miami Heat <br /><br />Wait, the Heat are second? How does that work. I still do think they have the most talented team in the league, but that being said, they are on their quest for the fabled “threepeat” only accomplished by 2 teams since the 1990s (Jordan’s Bulls and the Kobe/Shaq Lakers), so I’d imagine that being a little more forward thinking, the Heat may be less concerned with their regular season record, especially as the regular season wears on. Not to say that they’ll have a major drop-off, but I believe that they will monitor Dwyane Wade’s health and minutes closely, which might end up costing them a couple of games, perhaps enough to drop them from the top seed to second. There is the argument, that with the Finals format moving from 2-3-2 to 2-2-1-1-1 that the Heat may be looking to secure the top seed for home court advantage. So they still remain the favorites perhaps to win the Larry O’Brien trophy again, LeBron James remains the undisputed best player on the planet, but that being said, other teams have gotten better too, and will make this fourth consecutive trip to the finals that much more difficult. Despite the loss of Mike Miller’s timely shooting and overall playmaking abilities (despite his age and injury prone status) the Heat are hoping that their plethora of “sharpshooters” (i.e. Ray Allen, Shane Battier, James Jones, Rashard Lewis) will be able to offset that. Additionally, the Heat are rolling the dice with low-risk, high-reward projects in Michael Beasley and Greg Oden. If either is able to tap into that boundless potential (both having not realized their potential for various reasons) that got them drafted second and first overall respectively in their respective drafts, then, this could be something of a coup for the Heat, landing two solid reserves for cheap. Beasley would provide a big scoring lift off the bench while Oden, if he is able to stay on the court, would provide the size and defense that most pundits said is the Heat’s most glaring weakness. They are still the team to beat, so I think most nights teams will be gunning for them, but then, I also don’t see them worrying too much about it, so despite dropping a few winnable games here and there, they’ll still be right there back in the conference finals, at the very least. <br /><br />3. Indiana Pacers <br /><br />One could argue that the biggest weakness of the Indiana Pacers in that last season was their bench. The combination of D.J. Augustin, Sam Young, Gerald Green, Tyler Hansbrough, and Ian Mahinmi underwhelmed greatly. Some would argue that they underwhelmed enough to cost them the Eastern Conference Finals. With that in mind, the Pacers’ front office made a series of off-season acquisitions to shore up said bench, acquiring the likes of C.J. Watson, Luis Scola, and Chris Copeland. Additionally, the return of Danny Granger could feasibly allow Lance Stephenson to become a sparkplug off the bench, creating some much needed scoring in the second unit. With Watson, Scola, and Stephenson coming off the pine, I would imagine that the bench now has the playmaking capability to keep Indiana in the game while keeping the starters fresh. With another year of growth from their budding All-Star pairing of Paul George and Roy Hibbert, Indiana looks better, and ready to take on the Heat. Right? While I would agree that the Pacers have addressed some of their larger concerns, and under Vogel, will continue to retain one of the league-best defenses behind the monstrosity that is Roy Hibbert, there remains a single wrinkle in this otherwise top-tier team. Playmaking. As much as Paul George has developed, he’s not a playmaker. Fortunately, between all of the players of the starting lineup, they have enough playmaking to get by on most nights, they’re just that good. However, looking at the likes of George Hill, Paul George, Danny Granger, David West, and Roy Hibbert, I’m not entirely convinced that they have someone that is able to get his teammates into their offense, and ultimately easy buckets. While the defense will be there, I think there will be those nights where the offense sputters and the game turns ugly. While I believe the Pacers are good enough to eke out those ugly 90-88 slugfests more often than not, I don’t think they can do it consistently enough to put them at the very top of conference, certainly not over the Heat. While I would give them a good chance to dethrone the Heat simply based on matchups, the difficulty of the Pacers in finding an offense that works efficiently will be something that will lose them games. Paul George just isn’t that guy, at least not yet. <br /><br />4. New York Knicks <br /><br />The Knicks are a strange and perplexing team. When you really sit down and think about it, they shouldn’t be THAT good, right? Yet, for some reason, they continue to win games. While the trade for Andrea Bargnani still remains somewhat mind-boggling, from an potential standpoint, it kind of makes sense. Bargnani is a big body that can stretch the floor. Why trade for him instead of just keeping Copeland on is beyond me (or trade Novak, arguably the best if not one of the best 3-point shooters in the league for Bargnani’s below-average 3-point shooting). Then again, that might be why I’m not the Knicks GM. The again, that might be why I might be better qualified for that position than whoever is, but of course, I’m not alone in my sentiment behind this trade. Certainly, if Bargnani regains any semblance of strong play that he had in Toronto (for that one season), we could all be looking stupid, but so far, the play that Bargnani has had has been… uninspiring at best. Uninspiring enough for the Knicks to give him 3 shot attempts before booing him (incidentally he missed all 3). That being said, the Knicks still employ the reigning scoring champ (Carmelo Anthony), Sixth Man of the Year (J.R. Smith), and a former Defensive Player of the Year (Tyson Chandler). Though older, the addition of Metta World Peace off the bench gives them some defensive grit and depth to go with the retained pieces of Kenyon Martin and Pablo Prigioni. Mike Woodson seems to have found a system that works around Melo that neither George Karl nor Mike D’Antoni could work out, a system where Melo gets his buckets, and the Knicks win games. No mean feat. The big question now, is consistency; can J.R. Smith keep up his strong play despite wanting to start or his continued antics? How much do Kenyon Martin, Metta World Peace, and Tyson Chandler have in the tank? Can Iman Shumpert at least develop into a 3-and-D player? Of course, we continually forget about him, but the biggest x-factor of all, is whether or not Amar’e Stoudemire can find any of his game back, even if it is on a minutes restriction. That being said, this is a team that won 50+ games last season, and bringing back a lot of the same crew, I think can still perform at a high enough level to keep them up in the top 4 in the Eastern Conference. <br /><br />5. Brooklyn Nets <br /><br />On paper, the Nets look scary. Then again, we have to remember, that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are closer to 40 than 30. That being said, the Nets are spending big bucks this year at a chance to contend for a championship. They have a star-studded roster that seems a decent mix of veterans, youth, and quality talents in their prime. Of course, the question is how they all work together. I think there are going to be some chemistry issues. Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, and Deron Williams are all similar enough players that coexistence might be difficult. It might be easy to peg Joe Johnson as the odd man out, but I don’t know that it’s as easy as that. We all want to hand Deron Williams the keys to be “the man” but ever since he supposedly pushed Jerry Sloan out of Utah and got traded to the Nets, he hasn’t really shown us the tantalizing combination of size, control, and court-awareness that made us all wonder if perhaps he, not Chris Paul, was the best point guard in the league, that he, not Derrick Rose, was the original “Jason Kidd with a jump shot”. We can blame injuries, but there is so much talent on this team that it’s hard to not put them up top. Granted, we thought that about the Lakers last year, but still, there is nothing here that indicates that it will be an issue of personalities clashing (like Kobe and Dwight) but more of a question simply of whether or not the most talented players can coexist on the floor at the same time. Note how I haven’t even gotten around the hiring of Jason Kidd as head coach mere weeks after his retirement as a player. That being said, Kidd has the talent to work with, and hopefully his assistant staff headed by Lawrence Frank will help him implement it. The biggest key will be how well they play together and whether or not they can put aside their egos and play as a cohesive unit. Kevin Garnett will naturally bring the defense, tenacity, and intensity that the Nets sorely need, which will be good for Brook Lopez, who can just focus on scoring. Tack on a solid amount of depth and the Nets, on paper, have a very, very talented and good team. I think the most undervalued offseason acquisition though for the Nets is the all-around play of Andrei Kirilenko. If he remains healthy, he could be pivotal in making this team work. Of course, it wouldn’t hurt of Deron turned it back on this year too. All of these questions (including the Deron Williams/Joe Johnson coexistence question from last year, which I don’t think has been answered adequately) to me denotes a learning curve which will create enough hiccups for the Nets to finish just below the above, more established teams. <br /><br />6. Atlanta Hawks <br /><br />It’s weird, considering that they lost such a big piece in Josh Smith that the Hawks would still be in this discussion, but I’m actually a pretty big fan of the moves Danny Ferry has made this off-season. First, it began with the hiring of long-time Spurs assistant coach Mike Budenholzer, who now will make an effort to create a positive culture for the Hawks. By letting Josh Smith walk, Ferry has also essentially handed the franchise over to Al Horford, so we get to see exactly what he’s capable of. While I’m sure the Hawks are still are looking for some way to move Al Horford to a more comfortable PF slot, Paul Millsap, I think, has the capability to match most of what Josh Smith brought to the table, at least offensively. Certainly they will miss Smith’s defense and play-making, but, I believe everyone will have more of a defined role now in their new system. While the lineup definitely still looks to be something of a major work-in-progress, there is enough talent in there for them to rise up to the top of the middling teams in the Eastern Conference. I think one of the most overlooked players that will be returning from injury this season is Louis Williams, who is a premier scoring guard that will keep the Hawks bench afloat against other teams. While the roster is incomplete, I don’t think there is a sense of uncertainty or confusing within the Hawks, which oftentimes lends to players underperforming because they second-guess themselves. <br /><br />7. Toronto Raptors <br /><br />This prediction could change very, very quickly. Why? Simply because Masai Ujiri, last season’s executive of the year, inherited this team. While Ujiri may blow up the team, he may wait a season and see how things play out and decide where he wants to go from there. This team, as currently constructed, definitely has the talent to sneak into the playoffs. Rudy Gay is supposed to be a completely new player, now that he can see. I don’t envy Dwane Casey’s job of trying to figure out how to play three players as similar as Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan, and Terrence Ross with each other, or at least finding the minutes for each, but with the solid, and continually underrated all-around play of Amir Johnson, and continued growth of Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas, I believe that the Raptors have a solid core. If Kyle Lowry can reign it all in and keep everyone happy, the Raptors, on any given night, can essentially compete with almost any team. However, as is always the case with a younger team, consistency is always going to be an issue. Maybe I’m just bullish on Rudy Gay’s Lasik surgery, but I think the Raptors will have a strong enough performance this season to land themselves in the playoffs. That is, if Ujiri doesn’t decide to blow up the team first. <br /><br />8. Cleveland Cavaliers <br /><br />This last one was probably the toughest pick for me. Honestly, I’m not that hyped on the Cleveland Cavaliers, but, I suppose, like the Bulls, they were ravaged by injury last year. Unfortunately, unlike the Bulls, they neither had Tom Thobideau, nor the supporting talent to pull them anywhere near the playoffs, which worked out, as they landed another first overall pick in the draft. Unfortunately, no one really knew what to make of the 2013 draft as there was no surefire talent that sort of rose to the top. That being said, they front office definitely made a smart gamble by signing the enigmatic Andrew Bynum to an incentive-laden contract that will pay big dividends if Bynum returns to any semblance of his former self that helped the Lakers win two championships. Hopefully with a full year of Kyrie Irving and the energetic defensive play of Anderson Varejao, the Cavaliers will be in good shape to start on their path back to relevance after LeBron’s departure. Bringing back Mike Brown will definitely help out, at least on the defensive end, and as the young core of Dion Waiters, Tristan Thompson, Tyler Zeller, and rookie Anthony Bennett, the Cavs not only make a playoff push this season, but show why they have a promising future to come. Of course, that gaping hole at the SF spot is something of a concern, and while we can murmur about rumors of a LeBron James return, they can figure out a way between Earl Clark and Alonzo Gee to make it work until they find something that will fit what they need. Provided they remain healthy, they will improve drastically from their 24 win 2013 season. <br /><br />9. Detroit Pistons <br /><br />There is one word to describe the issues that the Pistons will have this year: spacing. Despite all the talent that Joe Dumars brought in this year in Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings, the Pistons most talented lineup features no one that can reliably hit a shot outside of 15 feet. Not to say that Jennings and Smith won’t try. For all the talk that has been out there, this is going to come up. The paint is going to get clogged between Josh Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond, which will encourage Smith and Jennings to take exactly the shots that we don’t want them taking: long mid-range jump shots. While hopefully their bench will provide support, there are just too many question marks for me to really give them credit. For all the hype about newcomers Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Luigi “Gigi” Datome, both are still unproven in the NBA, Kyle Singler and Kim English have yet to prove themselves consistent, despite his moniker of “Mr. Big Shot”, Chauncey Billups seems to have lost his shot somewhere between New York and Los Angeles, and Charlie Villanueva is well, Charlie Villanueva. The sheer talent on this team will win them games, unfortunately, they aren’t as talented as the Nets, so it’s not enough games to overcome the number of basketball issues on the floor that this sort of roster brings up. Maybe they read this and prove me wrong. That’d be exciting. <br /><br />10. Milwaukee Bucks <br /><br />A team mired in mediocrity. I suppose you can’t really expect much when your big-name acquisitions of the off-season are Brandon Knight, O.J. Mayo, Carlos Delfino, and an over-the-hill Caron Butler. While the team lacks any sort of talent or star-power to drive them to any sort of major success, they are legitimately two deep at every position which will keep them in the conversation for one of the bottom seeds of the playoffs. Boasting a solid frontcourt rotation of Larry Sanders, John Henson, and Ersan Ilyasova , the Bucks always have enough talent to keep things interesting game to game, but not enough to make them really worth talking about late into the post-season. Maybe that’s exactly where they want to be. That’d be weird if that were true. <br /><br />11. Washington Wizards <br /><br />I was actually really high on the Wizards coming into this season. However, I kind of wonder whether or not Nene can stay healthy enough to make a difference in their playoff run. The sixth through eleventh seed in East I think will be decided by a relatively small margin. Additionally, I don’t know if people will realize how big of an impact Emeka Okafor made on the floor defensively, and trading him for Marcin Gortat makes me worried about perhaps the extent of Okafor’s injury. That being said, the entire season for the Washington Wizards continues to rest on the shoulders of John Wall, who has yet to show a consistent offensive game, despite flashes of brilliance towards the end of last season. With Nene hurt, the offense will rely largely on John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Trevor Ariza (though Al Harrington is kind of a big x-factor for me), and I don’t know that there is enough consistency there to pull them into the playoffs. Certainly with a degree of luck and perhaps a better-than-expected offensive game from rookie Otto Porter the Wizards, who are gunning for the playoffs this year, will be able to sneak in, but again the concern regarding the Nene’s ability to stay on the floor has me concerned, which is why I dropped them this far. Gortat’s immediate presence will definitely help, but will it be enough? <br /><br />12. Charlotte Bobcats <br /><br />They’ve made the playoffs once in franchise history, and have been bad ever since. Part of it seems like the Bobcats can’t catch a break, but owner Michael Jordan has shown that he’s not exactly the most savvy front office decision-maker, so hopefully he maybe just becomes more hands-off and lets Rich Cho do his job. While signing for Al Jefferson makes them more talented, I’m not entirely sure it’s going to make the Bobcats significantly better. Remember that every single team that has featured Al Jefferson as the centerpiece of the offense has not performed well (see 2007 Boston Celtics, 2008 Minnesota Timberwolves). It’s really hard to be optimistic about this team when the most notable player on this team is Gerald Henderson. We’re not sure what Cody Zeller will bring to the table, Kemba Walker, while developing, still hasn’t shown anything that would push his team further up the standings, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s shooting is so bad that his shooting coach doesn’t really have anything nice to say about it. While Al Jefferson will get a fantasy basketball friendly 20-10 night-in and night-out, the Bobcats will still be losing those games night-in and night-out, unless Bismack Biyombo surprises me. <br /><br />13. Boston Celtics <br /><br />How badly the Celtics play to start off this season may determine whether or not we see Rajon Rondo suit up this season. Unfortunately for the Celtics, it’s not like they have a plethora of undeveloped youth in the mix for when Rondo comes back. Their core features the serviceable likes of Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger, and Jeff Green, the past-his-prime likes of Gerald Wallace, and the not-worth-their-contract likes of Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee. While youngsters MarShon Brooks and Kelly Olynyck are both intriguing high-upside pieces they are unproven, as is new head coach Brad Stevens. With already questionable talent on the table, the Celtics also have no playmaker on their roster outside of Rondo, which means that their “point guards” will be Bradley and Brooks, which, well, let’s say is going to be touch-and-go at best, a complete disaster otherwise. While Rondo has expressed his desire to be “the man” in Boston, I’m not entirely sure that they have the pieces and leverage to build anything meaningful around him. <br /><br />14. Orlando Magic <br /><br />Last season’s league-worst team drafted arguably the front-runner for Rookie of the Year in Victor Oladipo, and with the development of young pieces like Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless, and Tobias Harris, they should look to be a little better. Oladipo has shown flashes of why everyone is so high on him, which may mean that the Magic may be trying to offload some of their veteran guard rotation in Jameer Nelson and Arron Afflalo. However, that being said, even with the youngsters putting up numbers, they were still losing games. There’s no one on that team that can take over games. It really still feels like the Magic are trying to figure out their identity post-Dwight, and perhaps like the Cavaliers post-LeBron, it might take a couple of seasons to figure it out. <br /><br />15. Philadelphia 76ers <br /><br /><br /><br />For a team that looks designed to not win, I think there will be nights when we are surprised. Such as when the 76ers upset the Heat in their home opener (and Allen Iverson’s official retirement) behind rookie Michael Carter-Williams, who flirted with a quadruple-double in his first NBA action. I definitely don’t expect Carter-Williams to continue this sort of play, and he will hit a wall as teams adjust to his play. However, from top to bottom there just doesn’t appear to be the talent for this team to win many games. Behind new coach Brett Brown, the 76ers already have most pundits saying that they are “riggin’ for Wiggins”, and maybe that means that we get to see more of Carter-Williams, that maybe Evan Turner finally turns that corner into becoming the player he was projected to be with the second overall pick. While I like the frontcourt of Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes, it’s just not enough to propel them anywhere out of the bottom, and it almost feels like it’s supposed to be that way. We don’t know when Jason Richardson will return and if he will make a difference when he does, and I honestly have just named every single player that I know on the 76ers. Unless you count Kwame. Yup, he’s still getting paid. </div>
GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-42097677983232108072013-04-17T14:45:00.002-07:002013-04-17T14:45:47.973-07:00What to Expect From T-MacI was just about as surprised as anyone when the Spurs announced that they cut Stephen Jackson. However, I trusted that Pop knew what he was doing and that whatever mojo SJax was bringing into the lockerroom was no good. When I heard the news, my first reaction was to immediately jump to the waiver wires and see which SF were available. Naturally, at the top of the list was former All-Star Tracy McGrady, and I mentioned to a co-worker that we should consider giving the tires on T-Mac a little kick and see what he has left. Then, the Spurs announced they signed Tracy McGrady.<br />
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Now this post isn't to say that I can read RC Buford's mind, because, I can't. I probably just got lucky on this one, or maybe the choice was just THAT obvious. That being said, from the reports that I've seen and the logic behind Pop's decision making, we do need to temper somewhat our expectations of what to expect out of T-Mac when he does check into a game with a Spurs uniform on (which won't be until the playoffs, if ever).<br />
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First off, T-Mac will NOT be getting Stephen Jackson's minutes. While I am somewhat fond of the idea of trotting T-Mac out there as the primary SF backup, I understand that having played the entire season in China and not really had any experience with the team (or chemistry for that matter) that Pop approaches T-Mac as more of an insurance policy, he's a steady veteran hand that will be buried relatively deep in the bench, I'd imagine somewhat akin to Steve Smith or Glenn Robinson in the previous Spurs playoff runs.<br />
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With the anticipation of Manu returning to the floor, I can see Pop shortening his wing rotation to basically Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, and Manu Ginobili, and depending on foul trouble or matchups insert Gary Neal sort of sparingly either as an off-guard or as Tony Parker's primary backup. With that being said, when he needs a kickstart, he then may insert Tracy McGrady. So what then do we expect from T-Mac?<br />
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Ideally, he'd be something of a spark plug, more of a tertiary offensive creator that just comes in and scores a couple of timely buckets. He may be that second quarter spark that the Spurs sometimes need going into halftime. While no three-point specialist, T-Mac's above-average ability to handle the ball and run an offense does give him the ability to maintain a certain amount of spacing with the rest of the players, and I am sure these practices are just drilling T-Mac in where to go when certain players are on the floor. Certainly T-Mac isn't going to take over games anymore, but he may provide a steady hand and decent playmaking when defenses start zoning in on Parker and Ginobili and Neal and Green potentially start stalling out.<br />
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The biggest question mark for T-Mac would be how he fares on the defensive end, which I believe is largely mitigated by the fact that he probably won't be playing significant enough minutes to warrant that to be a major issue. Hopefully, though, if he does become a key rotation player, it's because he's earning the minutes, more so than anyone getting injured or something.<br />
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Anyways, I am very excited to see how T-Mac fares in black and silver. I don't expect him to turn back the clock, but I believe that he has more left in the tank than the average fan might give him credit for. So once again to the Spurs' front office. Good move.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4598444657162398839.post-39374851446657393432012-10-24T14:59:00.003-07:002012-10-24T14:59:41.701-07:00Understanding the Spurs' Frontcourt NeedLook, we've been saying it since 2008, Tim Duncan isn't really getting any younger, and maybe it's about time we find someone to give him a hand in the frontcourt, you know, another shot-blocking, rebounding big, that can space the floor, and play next to Timmy and spot him some minutes. Of course, whenever any Spurs fan says that, we invariably think of David Robinson, and of course we go out of our way to say that of course we're not expecting another Hall of Fame center to waltz into the doors, especially at the bottom of the waiver wire or at the end of the draft or out of the obscure depths of the Euroleague, but secretly, you know we're all thinking something like that. Naturally names get thrown out, and people get all giddy about trying to get Tyson Chandler or Chris Kaman or Eddy Curry.<br />
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As much as we say we're not looking for the next David Robinson, the spectrum of range between "the next David Robinson" and "better than Matt Bonner" is pretty broad and expansive. I mean, let's realistically think about it, what made the Twin Towers work? It's because both Duncan and Robinson were interchangeable in the low block, they had remarkable basketball IQ, were good passers, rebounders, and shot blockers. It's really the lack of another player that has those last two skills in combination that I believe most Spurs fans are looking for. Of course that's understandable given that the bigs in the rotation around Duncan are currently Diaw, Splitter, Bonner, and Blair, none of which are exactly known for shot blocking and only Blair being any good at rebounding consistently, though for a variety of other reasons make him an unfavorable match with Duncan. Ultimately, what made the Duncan and Robinson combination lethal, and it's been said before, was their mobility.<br />
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Let's be honest with ourselves then, there are only three players that are the contemporaries of Duncan that I would argue would have fit well next to him, and frankly, once you have seen who they are, you'd understand why the Spurs probably never really had much of a shot with them.<br />
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1) Kevin Garnett<br />
Beyond the fact that he and Duncan arguably played the same position, are the same size, and same age as each other, Garnett could be argued as the anti-Duncan. Garnett came into the league out of high school while Duncan completed his Bachelor's degree (in psychology, with honors) at Wake Forest. Duncan is the quiet, lead-by-example kind of guy while Garnett is the outspoken, in-your-face kind of player. Duncan relished the low post, while Garnett never really developed a legitimate go-to move. The Duncan/Garnett comparisons have been hashed out ad nauseum, but let's face it, despite all their differences, they would have been among the greatest big men ever paired together, their games perfectly complement each other. While Garnett prefers the jumper off pick-and-pops, he's solid enough inside to warrant attention, likewise, while Duncan is a beast on the low block, his mid range game is solid enough to need to be respected by the defense. Both are highly active on the defensive end, hounding players and altering shots, grabbing rebounds, etc...<br />
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2) Rasheed Wallace<br />
Most people's impression of Wallace is a headcase who takes ill-advised three pointers. Those of us with a longer memory recall him as the guy Scottie Pippen hated playing with on the Blazers. Yet why I put his name here, is because of my re-evaluated perspective on Wallace after watching the matchup between him and Duncan in the 2005 NBA finals. Granted we'll never know what Duncan could have become had he not had to have knee surgery in 2000, but Wallace was one of those players that could give even Duncan trouble, particularly on the defensive end. He was relatively explosive a leaper, had long arms and solid post moves. He was mobile on defense, and as we all know, his range extended all the way to the three point line. While we hated him for taking so many of them, he could still knock them down at a reasonable clip.<br />
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3) Pau Gasol<br />
I know that in recent memory Gasol has always gotten the "soft" label whenever the Lakers have underachieved. I mean, I understand that he doesn't like the spot light, the focal point of the defense, it's wearing, because the big men are also asked to do anchor their own team's defense too, which is what makes two way players like Duncan so remarkable. That being said, Gasol isn't bad defensively, while he may not have the reputation that perhaps Garnett or Wallace have, he is big and smart and is able to adequately swat shots and grab rebounds. Additionally, Gasol is a great high post player who passes well, which compliments Duncan wonderfully offensively, because Gasol is also a solid low post player and Duncan is a good high post player that passes well too. While Gasol I suppose would nominally be the center, I never thought for a moment that Gasol doesn't like player center, I think it was his subtle way of saying, he didn't like having to play in a frontcourt with Hakim Warrick.<br />
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Anyways, enough with the dream scenario, let's look at where the Spurs are now. Excluding Duncan, the remaining big men on the roster are as we previously mentioned Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner, Tiago Splitter, and DeJuan Blair. Now in looking at this, we understand that the best overall player that complements Duncan is Diaw, the biggest player is Splitter, the best rebounder is Blair, and the best floor spacer is Bonner, it's not really ideal, but it does give us a glimpse of what exactly it is the front office is looking for to put next to Duncan. That being said, we now need to look at the rotation, typically Diaw will start with Duncan and Bonner will come in usually with Splitter, I understand that Pop will try playing more with Splitter and Duncan sharing floor time but that generally doesn't happen too often, for two reasons. First, size, with both Splitter and Duncan on the floor for extended minutes may mean that there will be times when both of them will be off the floor at the same time, leaving the tallest player in the Spurs lineup one of Boris Diaw or Matt Bonner (or Stephen Jackson). Secondly, spacing, Splitter has no mid-range game so to speak, but you ideally want Duncan under the basket, then they both occupy the same space on offense, which ultimately means, for things to run smoothly, Duncan becomes the mid-range shooter full-time.<br />
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So, what then do we need ascertain what exactly it is that we're looking for in a big man. The biggest question that ultimately I have would be how much more can Tiago Splitter grow? The reason Diaw is such a good fit is because he can play well next to both Duncan and Splitter, he provides passing and has an adequate enough jumper to space the floor. So ultimately, if the player we want to get is to have any sort of meaningful (i.e. Matt Bonner's) playing time, he'll need to be able to do the same. That's asking a lot of a big man who blocks shots. Bringing in say a Tyson Chandler-type player would only signal to me that we've sort of given up on Splitter, because frankly that player can't share any floor time with Splitter.<br />
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It's not an easy answer. When I look back at the OKC series, besides Green and Bonner not being able to find a three to save their lives, one thing that stood out to me was the inability of Tiago Splitter to punish Serge Ibaka in the post when Perkins was off the floor. That's why a low post beast like Eddy Curry was an intriguing prospect to me. However, maybe this year Splitter takes a step forward with his post game. That's ultimately what I think it will take, we're probably not going to find a shot blocker type player that's going to meet our specific needs, but short of us landing LaMarcus Aldridge or Al Horford off the waiver wires, I'm not really sure we're going to do significantly "better than Matt Bonner". Who knows? I haven't really given up on Splitter yet, so maybe he steps it up this year, and we won't be talking so much about the need for a big man.GnachSanojhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09944281413028149521noreply@blogger.com0