Thursday, July 23, 2009

Another New Old Guy

So if you haven't already read Rikkido's impressions at Pounding the Rock or Graydon's reaction at 48minutesofhell, then you should do so. If you haven't heard, well, the Spurs decided to bolster their frontcourt even more by signing Theo Ratliff. I don't know if Graydon is right in that the front office wasn't impressed with the performance of James Gist enough to give his potential slot to a proven veteran, or as Rikkido states, that there is a trade imminent. Honestly, I don't know, and I can't say. Maybe it's both. One doesn't necessarily exclude the other. What I do know is that Theo Ratliff will be a Spur. It does give us a rather loaded frontcourt, but perhaps that's one of those good problems to have.

The current Spurs frontcourt consists of 7 players, Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, DeJuan Blair, Ian Mahinmi, Matt Bonner, Marcus Haislip, and now Theo Ratliff. Out of those five, neither Blair nor Mahinmi has played significant pro-ball, additionally Haislip hasn't seen daylight in the NBA since 2004 where he was subsequently dubbed a bust. So what we have, excluding Ratliff, would be three unproven/unknown factors, Tim Duncan with knee issues, an aging Antonio McDyess, and Matt Bonner.

So what does Ratliff add to the frontcourt as it is besides age? Well, one thing that he brings that has been discussed before, is simply this, another shot blocking presence outside of Tim Duncan. Besides being a stop plug should one of Blair, Mahinmi, or Haislip not pan out, Ratliff is known first and foremost as someone who defends capably and blocks a lot of shots. If we look at his stats relative to the other veteran bigs (Bonner, Duncan, and McDyess) we see that Ratliff on a per-36 minute basis blocks more shots than even Duncan himself.

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Matt Bonner 2008-09 28 81 67 1928 5.0 10.0 .496 2.2 5.0 .440 0.3 0.4 .739 1.8 5.4 7.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 3.5 12.5
2 Tim Duncan 2008-09 32 75 75 2522 8.0 15.8 .504 0.0 0.0 .000 4.8 6.9 .692 2.9 8.6 11.4 3.8 0.5 1.8 2.4 2.5 20.7
3 Antonio McDyess 2008-09 34 62 30 1866 5.2 10.1 .510 0.0 0.0
1.2 1.7 .698 3.6 8.1 11.7 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 3.7 11.5
4 Theo Ratliff 2008-09 35 46 0 578 2.1 4.0 .531 0.0 0.0
1.3 2.2 .600 2.9 5.1 8.0 0.6 1.1 2.9 0.9 4.8 5.5

While youo're not going to get much offensive production out of Ratliff offensively, I think the Spurs generally have enough firepower to somewhat hide Ratliff on the offense, allowing him to gobble up offensive boards and put-backs. Besides, it's not like he's going to be seeing anything more than possibly 5-10 minutes of floortime per game. While Mahinmi's D-League numbers and Haislip's Euroleague numbers show some promise as being able shot blockers, having Ratliff as a contingency plan isn't a horrible solution.

It's possible that now that Ratliff is on board a trade is imminent as Rikkido has stated. I believe Rikkido's original proposal looked something like this: Micheal Finley and Matt Bonner for Raja Bell. Which makes some semblence of sense. As I've stated before, I'm also willing to part with Mason if what the Spurs are looking for is an above-average to elite level defender. While Richard Jefferson is supposed to be solid, adding another defender never hurt, and would provide a number of matchup problems as well as be a solid contingency should Malik Hairston and Marcus Williams not work out. While he's not elite, I wouldn't mind parting with either Bonner or Mason for someone like Damien Wilkins either. Of course at this point in time it's all just speculation, and won't really affect the team roster come crunch time, which I believe will still remain Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, and Duncan, however, should the team not be as healthy as anticipated or something of that ilk, then it's good to have these sort of contingency plans.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Just Like Old Times

Sure, Tim Duncan has won with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili in 2003, 2005, and 2007. However, today's team doesn't exactly have the same look as those championship years. This year's team is a contender, but not in the sense of 2003, 2005, and 2007.

The 2003 squad featured Tony Parker, Stephen Jackson, Bruce Bowen, Tim Duncan, and David Robinson in his last year. Off the bench they had a rookie Manu Ginobili, Steve Smith, Devin Brown, Steve Kerr, Danny Ferry, Malik Rose, and the like.

The 2005 squad contained Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen, Tim Duncan, and Rasho Nesterovic with a supporting cast of Glenn Robinson, Brent Barry, Nazr Mohammed, Devin Brown, Robert Horry, and Sean Marks.

In 2007 the starters were Tony Parker, Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Tim Duncan, and Fabricio Oberto with Manu Ginobili, Brent Barry, Francisco Elson, Robert Horry, and Jacque Vaughn coming off the bench.

While the core of Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan remains the same, I think Duncan and Popovich might see something of a throwback to their 1999 championship in this team. A team boasting a starting 5 of Avery Johnson, Mario Elie, Sean Elliot, Tim Duncan, and David Robinson, with Malik Rose, Jarren Jackson, Steve Kerr, Antonio Daniels, and Jerome Kersey coming off the bench. Interesting comparison no? Well, I did say before that Richard Jefferson does remind me of Sean Elliot, so that got me thinking...

10 years later in the 2009-2010 season, Spurs boast a lineup of Tony Parker, Roger Mason, Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan, and Antonio McDyess. Off the bench we have the supporting cast of George Hill, Manu Ginobili, Michael Finley, Malik Hairston, DeJuan Blair, Matt Bonner, and Ian Mahinmi. The correlations aren't exact, but the comparisons can be made. At least this is how I look at it:

Per 36 Minutes:

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Sean Elliott 1998-99 30 50 50 1509 5.0 12.1 .410 0.9 2.8 .328 2.5 3.3 .757 0.8 4.2 5.1 2.8 0.6 0.4 1.7 2.5 13.4
2 Richard Jefferson 2008-09 28 82 82 2939 6.6 15.0 .439 1.4 3.6 .397 5.1 6.3 .805 0.7 3.9 4.6 2.4 0.8 0.2 2.0 3.1 19.7

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Avery Johnson 1998-99 33 50 50 1672 4.7 9.9 .473 0.0 0.3 .083 1.1 1.9 .568 0.5 2.1 2.5 7.9 1.1 0.2 2.4 2.2 10.5
2 Tony Parker 2008-09 26 72 71 2456 9.4 18.5 .506 0.3 1.0 .292 4.2 5.3 .782 0.4 2.9 3.3 7.3 1.0 0.1 2.7 1.6 23.2

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Antonio McDyess 2008-09 34 62 30 1866 5.2 10.1 .510 0.0 0.0
1.2 1.7 .698 3.6 8.1 11.7 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 3.7 11.5
2 David Robinson 1998-99 33 49 49 1554 6.2 12.2 .509 0.0 0.0 .000 5.5 8.4 .658 3.4 8.0 11.4 2.4 1.6 2.8 2.5 3.3 18.0

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Mario Elie 1998-99 35 47 37 1291 4.4 9.2 .471 1.1 3.0 .374 2.9 3.3 .866 1.0 2.8 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.3 1.7 2.5 12.7
2 George Hill 2008-09 22 77 7 1270 4.3 10.5 .403 0.7 2.1 .329 3.2 4.1 .781 0.9 3.6 4.5 3.9 1.3 0.6 2.1 4.3 12.4

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Steve Kerr 1998-99 33 44 0 734 3.3 8.5 .391 1.2 3.9 .313 1.5 1.7 .886 0.3 1.9 2.2 2.4 1.1 0.1 1.1 1.4 9.4
2 Roger Mason 2008-09 28 82 71 2496 5.0 11.9 .425 2.4 5.7 .421 1.5 1.7 .890 0.2 3.4 3.6 2.5 0.6 0.2 1.4 2.3 14.0

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Michael Finley 2008-09 35 81 77 2336 4.6 10.6 .437 2.0 4.9 .411 0.8 1.0 .823 0.4 3.8 4.2 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.9 1.3 12.1
2 Jerome Kersey 1998-99 36 45 0 699 3.5 10.3 .340 0.2 0.7 .214 0.3 0.7 .429 2.2 4.5 6.7 2.1 1.9 0.7 1.5 4.7 7.5

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Manu Ginobili 2008-09 31 44 7 1181 6.8 15.0 .454 2.1 6.4 .330 5.1 5.8 .884 0.7 5.3 6.0 4.8 2.0 0.5 2.7 2.7 20.8
2 Jaren Jackson 1998-99 31 47 13 861 4.5 11.9 .380 2.2 6.1 .361 1.3 1.6 .821 0.9 3.3 4.1 2.0 1.7 0.4 1.5 2.6 12.6

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Tim Duncan 1998-99 22 50 50 1963 7.7 15.5 .495 0.0 0.1 .143 4.5 6.6 .690 2.9 7.6 10.5 2.2 0.8 2.3 2.7 2.7 19.9
2 Tim Duncan 2008-09 32 75 75 2522 8.0 15.8 .504 0.0 0.0 .000 4.8 6.9 .692 2.9 8.6 11.4 3.8 0.5 1.8 2.4 2.5 20.7


Okay, Maybe it's not fair to compare Jaren Jackson to Manu Ginobili, but there really isn't a great comparison down that line. I just said they were similar, not that the two seasons were identical. I mean, the rules have changed in the last 10 years, so the game is played pretty differently. The first thing to notice is that the old school team is defensively much better while the current team is offensively much better. It's interesting to note that Duncan plays better 10 years later, statistically at least. While McDyess is no Robinson both offensively and defensively in terms of shot blocking presence, he's still a solid producer. I was most surprised by the George Hill and Mario Elie similarities. It's a new decade, let's usher it in the right way with a bang. I'd throw up a Malik Rose and DeJuan Blair comparison, except that Blair doesn't have any real stats in the NBA yet, so I can't pull him up on basketball-reference.com. Oh well. Ah the nostalgia.

As a note, no team has repeated a championship run since 2002 when the Lakers had their threepeat. In the past 10 years, the Lakers and Spurs account for 8 of the past 11 championships (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007 for the Spurs, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009 for the Lakers) and are the only Western Conference teams to win a championship. From the East 2004 went to Detroit, 2006 to Miami, and 2008 to Boston. Spurs are 4-0 in their championship appearances, Lakers are 4-1. Just thought I'd throw something interesting out there.

Monday, July 20, 2009

What Pop Sees in Richard Jefferson (I think)

To be completely honest, I was rather confused by Greg Popovich's decision to declare Richard Jefferson as his defensive ace. While Jefferson might be effective, no one has declared him a stalwart of any sort, and he definitely hasn't proven anyone wrong on that end. One line of argument would be that with the Big 3 Jefferson can concentrate on defense and be better and more effective in that means, since he's not called on to score as much. That line of thinking might hold some merit. Another might be that his offensive prowess will offset any defensive shortcomings he has on the defensive end. I mean, he's an overall major upgrade from Michael Finley at the wing from last season.

So where am I going with all this? Well, I recently picked up the Spurs championship DVD collection, with all their Finals wins ever. That's 16 games of Spurs victories in the finals, starting with the lockout year 1999 record setting 15 playoff win streak, closing the season with a Finals rout over the injury-plagued New York Knicks. Maybe it's just me, but I see Richard Jefferson as a throwback not to Bruce Bowen, obviously, but rather, a key part of the 1999 victory; Sean Elliot. Maybe that's what Popovich sees in him as well, an underrated defender who has the offensive skillset to be able to dominate, but is never really called to. While I'm not going to go out calling the 2010 San Antonio Spurs a throwback of the 1999 championship Spurs, with the idea of Sean Elliot in mind, I can better appreciate the direction that Popovich might take with this team.

Bob Costas and Doug Collins, the commentators on the 1999 Finals did add this, that perimeter players like Mario Elie and Sean Elliot could play more aggresive defense on the perimeter players because they knew that David Robinson and Tim Duncan were behind them, and would alter or flat out swat any shots in the lane. Duncan is now 10 years older and the shot-blocking presence of David Robinson is long gone, replaced with the serviceable defense of Antonio McDyess. McDyess isn't going to block any shots, but I can definitely see Jefferson chasing around wing players like Elliot did way back when. Elliot also wasn't known as a premier defender, but he did do a serviceable job against the likes of Latrell Sprewell. If you look at the numbers, I like the comparison, and I can't help but like the Spurs more.

Per 36
Rk Player From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Sean Elliott 1990 2001 742 712 24502 5.7 12.2 .465 0.9 2.3 .375 3.3 4.1 .800 1.2 3.5 4.7 2.8 0.8 0.4 2.0 2.4 15.5
2 Richard Jefferson 2002 2009 571 499 20438 6.1 13.0 .469 0.7 2.0 .353 4.9 6.2 .781 1.2 4.1 5.3 3.0 0.9 0.3 2.2 2.7 17.8

Advnaced Statistics
Rk Player From To G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS
1 Sean Elliott 1990 2001 742 24502 13.9 .553 .500 3.9 10.6 7.3 12.0 1.2 0.8 12.2 19.5 110 107 31.5 24.2 55.8
2 Richard Jefferson 2002 2009 571 20438 16.6 .564 .496 3.9 13.4 8.6 14.9 1.3 0.7 12.3 23.0 110 105 34.1 23.0 57.1

Think about it.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Almost Done...

Perhaps this is all that RC Buford and Greg Popovich decides to do for this season, all in all, it's not a bad roster, there also really isn't much else that they have to work with anyways. I'm sorry this is rather late in terms of basketball news, and this issue has already been beaten to death, but in case you haven't heard, the Spurs just agreed to terms with Antonio McDyess. Additionally, yesterday, they also signed Malik Hairston and Marcus Haislip. So where does that leave the Spurs? Well, as of right now, their roster (probably) looks something like:

PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Roger Mason, Manu Ginobili, Malik Hairston
SF - Richard Jefferson, Michael Finley
PF - Antonio McDyess, Matt Bonner, DeJuan Blair
C - Tim Duncan, Ian Mahinmi, Marcus Haislip

Haislip and Hairston are both relatively unknown. However, if we look at their DraftExpress profiles, there are generally good things to be said about both of them (Haislip is considered the 3rd best overseas free agent). If we look at the roster as is, the Spurs have met the 13 player minimum requirement by the league, however, will also be able to add in 2 more players to the roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Popovich rotate in some more youth and insert him in spot minutes for something, probably defense. I can also see Popovich start cycling out Finley a little more, using him as primarily a scoring option, though given his streakiness, that might be difficult. From my perspective, I can't really see the front office making any other major changes to the roster, so this is pretty much a finalized list of who you'll probably see dress on a game-to-game basis.

With that, let's start breaking down how this roster will work:

The Big Three - Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili

Well, the obvious cornerstone of this franchise rests across the shoulders of these three: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. These three will be called to bear the brunt of the scoring load, to make the big shots that the team needs to win, and to be that veteran floor leading presence that the team needs at all times on the floor. If we were to boil down Greg Popovich's offensive strategem for the past couple of years down to its simplest form, it'd probably be something like, swing the ball to one of the Big Three, if he doesn't score he'll be double-teamed so swing the ball around to the open man, either an open three point shooter or lone big man under the basket. Duncan will still have to be the cornerstone of the cornerstone, in that he's still the foundation of the Big Three. Similar to Kevin Garnett in Boston, Duncan will be asked to provide the intensity and be the defensive spark plug for the Spurs, despite going about it an extraordinarily different way than Garnett, I would venture to say, basically in the complete opposite way that Garnett does. Of course, we're not here to discuss the similarities and dissimilarities of two of the best PFs in their generation, perhaps of all time (being Duncan and Garnett). The Big Three are the Big Three, despite being a year older, they'll still be called on to do the things they've been doing since 2003. While part of Duncan's scoring load might be moved over to Parker, the essence of the Spurs is still Duncan's, and he is the core of this well-oiled machine.

The New Old Guys - Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Marcus Haislip

I know, Richard Jefferson isn't exactly "old" when it comes to basketball terms, I mean, he just turned 29 last month, that's still on the "right side of 30" when it comes to sports, specifically, when it comes to basketball. However, at 29, Jefferson isn't exactly your idea of a budding young star either, he's pretty much peaked, being exactly what you see. For better or worse, Jefferson will probably have the toughest defensive assignments, filling the shoes of Bruce Bowen and Ime Udoka, while he might not be as effective as Bowen was on the defensive end in his time, Jefferson at the very least is a major offensive upgrade, and an upgrade on both ends of the floor from Michael Finley.

If we compare their (Jefferson, Finley, Bowen) per 36 minutes stats:

Rk Player Season Age


FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV
PTS
1 Bruce Bowen 2008-09 37


1.9 4.5 .422 1.0 2.3 .429 0.3 0.6 .538 0.4 3.1 3.5 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.6
5.1
2 Michael Finley 2008-09 35


4.6 10.6 .437 2.0 4.9 .411 0.8 1.0 .823 0.4 3.8 4.2 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.9
12.1
3 Richard Jefferson 2008-09 28


6.6 15.0 .439 1.4 3.6 .397 5.1 6.3 .805 0.7 3.9 4.6 2.4 0.8 0.2 2.0
19.7

We find that naturally, since Jefferson played more minutes as more of a primary scoring option, that he scores more. However, it's interesting to note, that while he took more shots than Finley, he was also more efficient at scoring, and also fairly proficient from the line. In looking at slightly more advanced statistics:

Rk Player Season Age


TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS
1 Bruce Bowen 2008-09 37


.539 .535 1.3 10.1 5.7 3.7 1.3 0.6 11.2 7.2 104 106 0.3 1.8 2.1
2 Michael Finley 2008-09 35


.547 .532 1.3 12.3 6.9 7.7 0.9 0.5 7.8 16.1 107 107 1.6 2.7 4.2
3 Richard Jefferson 2008-09 28


.554 .487 2.2 13.3 7.5 11.7 1.2 0.4 10.2 24.6 110 110 4.2 2.5 6.7

We find that while Jefferson isn't as effective defensively than either Finley or Bowen, I think that the differential isn't great enough for the Spurs to be any worse defensively than they were last season. In terms of turnover rate, I attribute that to high usage, which I believe on the Spurs, will drop. Note also that Jefferson is effective in generating steals and assists. Jefferson is a player that fits well on a team-oriented Spurs squad. Popovich has worked with Jefferson before on the US men's national team during the FIBA tournaments (2003 I think) so I believe that Popovich understands the kind of character that Jefferson brings to the lockerroom and therefore, any of those intangibles that Jefferson brings can probably at worst be called non-existant. Basically, only good things can happen.

With McDyess, I fully expect him to step right into Matt Bonner's starting spot. In essence he replaces the production of Kurt Thomas, and in my opinion, is a significant upgrade. In fact, many are already drawing comparisons of McDyess to David Robinson in the waning years of his career. If we look at a comparison (per 36):

Rk Player Season Age


FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Matt Bonner 2008-09 28


5.0 10.0 .496 2.2 5.0 .440 0.3 0.4 .739 1.8 5.4 7.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 3.5 12.5
2 Antonio McDyess 2008-09 34


5.2 10.1 .510 0.0 0.0
1.2 1.7 .698 3.6 8.1 11.7 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 3.7 11.5
3 David Robinson 2002-03 37


4.2 9.0 .469 0.0 0.0
3.3 4.6 .710 3.5 7.4 10.9 1.3 1.1 2.4 1.8 2.7 11.7
4 Kurt Thomas 2008-09 36


3.9 7.8 .503 0.0 0.1 .000 0.9 1.2 .822 3.4 6.9 10.4 1.7 0.9 1.5 1.1 4.4 8.8

While McDyess isn't the defensive stalwart that Robinson was, we can see that in terms of scoring and rebounding McDyess is comparable if not better than his predecessors. He certainly won't shoot the 3 like Bonner will, and I expect that should Popovich desire some quick points via the 3-ball, then Bonner will be inserted in with precision minutes. However, we can see that McDyess overall is a much more efficient scorer and definitively better rebounder on both ends of the floor. While he's not going to be a major shot-blocking presence, he can at the very least replicate Kurt Thomas's on-ball post defense.

Rk Player Season Age


TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS
1 Matt Bonner 2008-09 28


.611 .606 6.1 17.6 11.9 6.8 1.3 1.0 6.3 14.6 123 104 3.7 2.9 6.5
2 Antonio McDyess 2008-09 34


.529 .510 11.6 27.2 19.3 7.3 1.2 2.1 8.3 15.7 115 104 2.6 2.7 5.3
3 David Robinson 2002-03 37


.531 .469 11.8 22.8 17.6 5.9 1.7 4.6 13.9 16.5 109 95 2.4 3.5 5.9
4 Kurt Thomas 2008-09 36


.530 .503 11.5 22.7 17.2 7.2 1.3 3.1 11.5 12.6 115 101 1.7 2.6 4.3

I'm fairly convinced that Matt Bonner was hidden pretty regularly on defense, so his defensive stats are a little inflated, though I could be wrong. However, given the obvious rebounding advantage that McDyess has over all the other players he fits nicely as a secondary big man next to Tim Duncan. By all reports, he is a good guy, and were it not for a major knee injury, would be a perennial All-Star instead of an above-average role player. At the very least, McDyess and Duncan will provide solid mentorship to the younger big-men in Mahinmi and Blair.

Most people probably don't really have a clue as to who Marcus Haislip is. For good reason, he was drafted in 2002 by the Milwaukee Bucks with the 13th overall pick. He bounced around the league a little bit and then when things didn't pan out, ended up going to Europe to play, and really developed his game overseas. Haislip has been solid, averaging 16.5 points and 5.2 rebounds in the ACB and 11.2 points and 4.9 rebounds in the Euroleague. If we look at his pace-adjusted per-40 minute statistics:



FG%
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Steals
Blocks
Tos
2008-2009 ACB 49.6
23.2
7.3
0.7
1.1
1.5
2.5

We see that he's got some fairly impressive broken down stats. We have to remember though that Haislip is 28, so any development of his game is translation of his European skills back to the NBA, in which he's had some exposure, so I don't anticipate the gap to be that big. While he's not a great rebounder, I can definitely see him stepping his game up to play big minutes either behind or next to Tim Duncan. If you read his DraftExpress profile, you'll find that the scouts there find his jumper to be significantly improved, and is a go-to scoring option in one of the elite teams in Spain. I easily see Haislip and McDyess becoming the primary options that Popovich plays next to Duncan, and Haislip could surprise a lot of us by picking up any of the scoring load that Duncan seems to have lost with age. The question is, can the Spurs afford to have another big guy that's a somewhat below average rebounder?

The Incoming Youth - Malik Hairston, DeJuan Blair

I haven't heard anything about Jack McClinton being offered a contract yet, so I'm going to say that the Spurs are taking a "wait and see" policy on McClinton and will decide what to do with him after watching how he does in the Summer League. From all reports, it sounds like Hairston has picked up a jumper, which is an added bonus, and definitely makes him an athletic solid addition. Hopefully his defense will also take that jump and he'll be able to make some stops in helping the Spurs reach far in the post-season.

The big talk with the Spurs is about how they stole Pittsburgh product DeJuan Blair with the 37th overall pick in the draft. To be honest, I do recall seeing Blair going top 15 in a lot of mock draft boards, but that didn't happen, and the Spurs lucked out, having a lottery talent pick fall to them in the 2nd round. While a lot of it is attributed to the fact that Blair had reconstructive surgery in high school on his knees, and therefore has no ACLs, the guy only had one DNP last season, and reportedly hasn't missed any practices since then. While health concerns might be an issue, the Spurs need an impact player now, and Blair is exactly that type of player. If you look at the statistics, Blair was the 3rd leading rebounder in the NCAA last season and the leading offensive rebounder at the collegiate level. Almost half, that's right, half of his 12 rebounds per game were on the offensive glass (he averaged 12.3 rebounds per game with 5.6 offensive boards and 6.8 defensive). From all reports in Las Vegas Summer League, Blair has shown great footwork and aggressiveness, getting himself into a position to grab rebounds and make putbacks, additionally, he's shown glimpses of being an above-average passer for someone his size. Additionally, he gets to develop his game behind a solid veteran in Antonio McDyess and Tim Duncan, already a legend and arguably the best PF to ever play the game. You can't help but smile at the thought of that. I don't care how little NCAA play translates over to NBA sometimes, when you have a guy that has a pace-adjusted per 40 of 23 points and 18 rebounds, it's a good day.

The Guys That Have Been Here - Roger Mason, Michael Finley, Matt Bonner, George Hill, Ian Mahinmi

The main thing these guys, at least Mason, Finley, and Bonner, have to do, in my opinion, is come in and make 3s when Pop needs it, much akin to Steve Kerr of old. Mason is basically an offensive stopgap for when Manu is resting. Limited minutes for Finley as Hairston and Jefferson pick up how Pop works and runs the offense and all that as well. Bonner I see as spot minutes to play alongside Duncan, if Pop wants a little more offensive punch in the lineup.

The big questions then are Hill and Mahinmi, and how well their games are played. While Mahinmi has been around for a whole year, he hasn't played due to injury. Hill showed flashes of brilliance when Parker went down with an ankle sprain (after dropping 52 points on like Minnesota or something). One thing Hill has shown he is capable of, which Pop values highly, is his ability to defend at the NBA level. I like Hill as a backup PG, there are some things he needs to work on, but with his defensive efforts, I can see him developing quickly. Maybe I'm optimistic, but think Rajon Rondo less the fancy passing.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Now for Plan B...

So the Spurs were unable to acquire much coveted big-man Rasheed Wallace. He opted not to play with a team that would offer him a bigger role, a team that had another former Tar Heel, and opted finally to play on a team that went all out to get him. That's right, Wallace opted to listen to the pleas of his good friend Kevin Garnett, and is now going to be wearing green and white come the beginning of the season. While this brings a slew of questions, one of which being the floor time of improving young center, Kendrick Perkins, one of the few centers known to be strong enough to body up Dwight Howard, it's good to have options, and Wallace definitely gives the Celtics a lot of them. What are the Spurs to do now? It's a big question in my opinion, as I still think there's a huge falloff from Rasheed Wallace and the rest of the free agent bigs that the Spurs could reasonably land. Tanguay, the person who leaked the Wallace signing in Boston, is also reporting that it's possible that the Celtics let "Big Baby" Glen Davis walk in favor of signing Grant Hill. While it seems the Spurs have more than a passing interest in Davis, I hardly think he's the solution to anything that could be had in free agency. While Celtics still remain a relatively thin roster, they have found their ultimate PJ Brown replacement in Wallace, and potentially their James Posey defensive specialist replacement in Hill.

I digress though, this is about the Spurs. While the Spurs did sign Marcus Haislip from overseas, I believe that San Antonio's front office is still looking to make a big splash somehow. Let's look at the big men left available to San Antonio through free agency, and then maybe at a look at who's still actively pursuing big men too. The list is as follows:

Lamar Odom
Antonio McDyess
Rasho Nesterovic
Marcin Gortat
Chris Andersen
Anderson Varejao
Chris Wilcox
Joe Smith
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
Brian Skinner
Hakim Warrick
Donyell Marshall
Theo Ratliff
Juwan Howard
Channing Frye
Ike Diogu
Drew Gooden
Shawn Marion
Stromile Swift
Adonal Foyle
Shelden Williams
Jason Collins
Jarron Collins
Jamaal Magloire
Chris Mihm
Brandon Bass
Sean May
Mikki Moore

With just a cursory glance at this list, I would say there are only maybe 4 players I would actually want from this list, and maybe tack on another 3-4 that I could actually live with, and might actually be worth an MLE, with about 50-60% of the list being scrubs most barely worth the veteran's minimum, and some not even being worth that much. Let's take a look at some of the Spurs' options:

Lamar Odom
Ht: 6-10 Wt: 230 lbs
Age: 29

Odom is one of those phenomena, where the personality doesn't match the talent on the player. While being one of the most athletically gifted and most talented players in the league, the biggest knock on Odom has been that he doesn't have the mindset to utilize those gifts and talents to their fullest. While that might be true, it only keeps Odom from being a superstar, it doesn't preclude him from being a well above-average player, one that was a crucial piece to the championship Lakers last season. His length and versatility make him an able help-defender, and while he's not stellar in his man-to-man defense, he has the ability to do so ably, especially with his larger frame. He has the versatility to play the SF position, his ball-handling and finishing ability and most of his offensive game show that he can be a nightmare to try to contain since he's bigger than most small forwards and faster than most power forwards. While a lot of pundits and scouts and GMs will consider Odom more than able at the SF slot, I actually prefer when he plays the PF, since that enables him to fully utilize one of his greatest assets, his rebounding. While he's not phenomenal, he's a decent mid-range to long-range shooter, and is able to keep defenses honest.

What Odom would add to the Spurs would be firstly, another able and long defender to the lineup. Pop would likely be finishing games with a five on the floor of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Lamar Odom, and Tim Duncan. Like Jefferson, I feel Odom would thrive the most in a system where he doesn't feel the pressure of being one of the primary cogs in the engine, and the Spurs would provide a system like that. By adding another ball-handler and passer to the floor, the Spurs would then add another point of origin for their offense and enable Greg Popovich a large degree of flexibility with his lineups. While this could be confusing for younger players figuring out their roles (like George Hill), hopefully Pop would mix it up in a good way that would throw an array of looks at the opponents that they wouldn't be able to counter. While he doesn't necessarily spread the floor like Rasheed Wallace would, Odom's skills enable him to play effectively next to Duncan in the sense that he doesn't dwell in the paint like most other bigs that would play next to Duncan, he can work around Duncan and oftentimes, would probably set Duncan up for a lot of easy looks or vice versa.

While there looks to be a lot of good things about Odom, the continuing problem of whether or not he'll always be there with 100% focus is always a question. It's one I'd be willing to deal with though, and that makes the bigger issue of the improbability that the Spurs would be able to land a singular talent like Odom with their cap space, that is, with only the MLE (mid-level exception) or the BAE (bi-annual exception). Since the Lakers essentially swapped Ariza for Artest, I can imagine that the Lakers now have a strong claim on retaining Odom. Odom would be willing to play for less should he return to the Lakers. While having a starting gig might not sway Odom, what's to say that a larger contract wouldn't? Blazers might up the ante by offering Odom exactly what he wants, a $40 million, 4 year contract, similar to the $50 million, 5 year contract offered to Hedo Turkgolu (who turned it down last minute for a 5 year, $56 million contract in Toronto). Either way, the Spurs can't offer more than the Lakers, which is where Odom would stay if all else were equal, and neither can really offer as much as the Blazers, so it's either LA or Portland for Odom, assuming they make an offer.

Antonio McDyess
Ht: 6-9 Wt: 245 lbs
Age: 34

This free agency seems like a 1995 draft-class reunion, I mean, 3 of the top 5 picks are free agents. With the 4th pick (Rasheed Wallace) and 5th pick (Kevin Garnett) joining forces, we now look at the 2nd overall pick of that class (McDyess), and possibly reunite him with fellow draftee Michael Finley (21st pick). Okay, okay, I'm sounding too much like a tacky newspaper sports column with nothing better to write about. I'm hard pressed to find an adjective for Antonio McDyess right now other than "able". I mean, this isn't the pre-surgery 2000-2001 Denver Nuggets' Antonio McDyess. He's not going to go out averaging 20.8 points and 12.1 rebounds per game for anybody lately. At best, he'll probably be putting up reasonable numbers, not great, but not horrid either, pretty close to 10 points, 10 rebounds per game, but probably realistically around 9.4 and 9.6 or something. He's a serviceable big who will hustle, put together a couple of big games and a string of decent ones. Certainly he can duplicate if not excel the output of Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson, and Kurt Thomas in years past.

However despite all his serviceability, McDyess isn't exactly someone I'd be jumping to spend my MLE on. Again, please note, this is the 34 year old, post-knee surgery McDyess, what you see is pretty much what you're going to get. While he can knock down the nice jump shot, grab a couple of rebounds, and defend reasonably well, is he really that big of an upgrade over Kurt Thomas? He certainly isn't a major shotblocking presence that the Spurs would like next to Duncan, and there certainly isn't any upside to him. Here's a solid respectable pro in his last legs, looking for a championship, McDyess is a hard-working, likeable guy, but I reiterate, he's not worth the MLE. Certainly nothing about McDyess jumps out at you, but that's both good and bad, he's not going to wow you with 20 points and 10 rebounds night in and night out, but you know he's going to consistently and quietly contribute what he can. The question then is; will it be enough? Personally, I'd rather not have to find out in reality.

Rasho Nesterovic
Ht: 7-0 Wt: 255 lbs
Age: 33

The only player less deserving of an MLE than an aging player who was once great and now through the years has slowed being just serviceable, is an aging player who was only ever serviceable to begin with. While Rasho might have something left in his tank, he certainly isn't going to produce anything spectacular. We're talking about a guy whose best season was 6 years ago, averaging 11.2 points and 6.6 rebounds, there's nothing spectacular about it whatsoever. However, Rasho is the kind of guy that fits well next to Duncan. He's already won a ring with Duncan, so he knows how to play next to Timmy. However, with an aging Duncan, I don't know that it's the best idea to put an aging Rasho next to him. Certainly he's a known factor, Pop and the Spurs will know exactly what they're going to get out of Rasho and Rasho knows exactly what Pop and the Spurs are going to ask of him.

However, we're talking about an aging 33 year old center who has never really been known to be stellar in any way. Is he really still useful? I think he'd be solid as a backup center of some sort, but he certainly isn't spelling 28-30 minutes a night for me. Precision use of Rasho's minutes when needed, as a sort of Oberto/Elson/Thomas replacement is about the most I can see. If he signs for more than the veteran's minimum, then we know teams are still willing to overpay for washed up big men.

Marcin Gortat
Ht: 7-0 Wt: 240 lbs
Age: 25

While Gortat's skillset isn't the perfect fit next to Duncan, he'd be a great young prospect for Duncan to develop and mentor. After flying into fame playing for the Orlando Magic behind Dwight Howard, several teams are taking a closer look at the once overlooked "big white guy with a Jordan tatoo". Among his suitors, Dallas is believed to be the one to land him, so I don't know that San Antonio legitimately has a shot at getting him. From everything I hear, there's a lot to like about the Polish Hammer. He's quick laterally, plays excellent and active defense, rebounds at a steady rate, and seems to have the basics down on the offensive end. No one's really sure what he'd do with starter's minutes, but it's only his second season, and he's only 25, so you'd presume there'd be a certain amount of upside.

Chris Wilcox
Ht: 6-10 Wt: 235 lbs
Age: 26

Since Wilcox has been bounced around a bit, it's hard to remembeer that he's in fact only 26 (though he'll be 27 when the next season rolls around), there's still room for him to grow. Wilcox by all reports is freakishly athletic, but that athleticism just hasn't really translated into the game. Arguably, he hasn't had much of a chance since playing on a floundering Sonics squad in a season plagued with injuries to both of Seattle's then stars, Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis (not simulataneously, but still, he became the number 2 option). After getting buried in the bench at New York, I believe that Wilcox will be looking for a new chance to prove himself. While he won't make $6+ million per year, I think he'll still be a decent pickup for cheap, maybe the BAE.

Wilcox as of right now is just potential, but he could be another free agency steal (see Roger Mason) as he hasn't really gotten a chance to play since Seattle, and then he was on a bottom-feeder team that just couldn't get anywhere. He's not a shotblocking presence by any stretch of the imagination, but he could be one of those hustle players that makes a difference. He certainly does meet the criteria of youth and athleticism at the very least. I haven't heard a lot about teams pursuing Wilcox, but that doesn't mean GMs don't have an eye on him. Personally, I can see him as being the sleeper in this free agency, and could be had for cheap. Of course, it could always go the other way, and he could be a bust.