Normally, when I post here, it's all about unfettered optimism, looking at the silver lining and bright spots in regards to the Spurs. However, given their 1-7 Rodeo Road Trip there seems to be little to look forward to in regards to the Spurs' prospect. As The Starters' analyst Trey Kerby asked, "Are you telling me that both LeBron and the Spurs will miss the playoffs in the same season?" While it seems unlikely, it is still entirely within the realm of possibility given the difficulty of the West and the tightness between the 7-10 seeds. As it stands, Spurs are 8th, one game behind the Clippers in both the win and loss columns (3 games behind the Jazz in the loss column for 6th seed), only 2 games ahead of Sacramento in the win column and a decent 5 games ahead of both the Timberwolves and the Lakers (4 in the win, 2 in the loss). The season certainly is not lost, Derrick White is back as is DeMar DeRozan's shooting, and LaMarcus Aldridge has maintained his aggression, so let's take a back and forth look at how things are panning out for the Spurs right now.
Let's start with the bad news first shall we?
Reasons to Panic
1. Lack of individual defensive talent
In the last two seasons, the loss of talented individual defenders such as Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Kyle Anderson, and Tim Duncan have left big question marks in regards to how the Spurs can regain the defensive identity that won them five titles in the last 20 years. Of course, we can narrow the window to simply last season where Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green were traded for DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl, Kyle Anderson and Tony Parker left for other teams and Manu Ginobili retired, and while not a major cog, I personally was sad that they let Brandon Paul walk as well. These mainstays were later replaced with Marco Belinelli, Dante Cunningham, Quincy Pondexter, and draft prospects Lonnie Walker IV and Chimezie Metu. These additions came with the expected development of young players such as Bryn Forbes, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Davis Bertans, while retaining the veteran talent of Patty Mills, Rudy Gay, and Pau Gasol.
I came into the season confident that while there would be a drop off in defense, Pop will somehow make it work, as he did with less than stellar defensive players like David Lee and Tony Parker. However, what that undersold was:
a) the defensive efficacy of individual elite defenders from Bruce Bowen to Tim Duncan to Kawhi Leonard to even Stephen Jackson and Danny Green (and George Hill).
Even then, those defensive liabilities were surrounded by at worst, defensively above average or at least defensively neutral players such as Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Kyle Anderson, or Manu Ginobili.
While LaMarcus Aldridge is on his way to becoming a high level defender, I don't know if he can become the elite defensive game changer that Tim Duncan was, and it would be unfair to ask him to be so. There are times when DeMar DeRozan is locked in defensively and uses his strength and athleticism to come up with big steals, but that's really not the reason we brought him in, and we don't expect him to be the next Kawhi Leonard, shutting people down. And while Rudy Gay can look like the best defender on the floor at times, we have to realize that while it may be more frequent that Boris Diaw accomplished the feat, it is still only at times. Certainly, Dejounte Murray fits that bill, but he is out with a season ending injury, the next best bet has been Derrick White.
b) the overall lack of defensive ability or awareness of core players.
Marco and Pau are not going to wow people defensively, especially not anymore. We knew that coming in. While Patty and Bryn try, there is still a lack of size and ability there. Thus, it's only logical that when Pop runs a small three guard lineup with Marco, Patty, and Bryn, they become a huge defensive liability.
c) the inconsistency of the offense as a trade off.
Our defense got is into the playoffs last season right? So let's fix our offense this season. Unfortunately, over the past couple of games, our plethora of sharpshooters (Belinelli, Mills, Forbes, Bertans) could not seem to get anything to fall. While the tenacity is there, when the shots aren't falling the lack of defense on the other end (regardless of who is in the frontcourt) really kills us.
d) a lack of consistent playmaking.
While Forbes and Bertans have shown that they're better than advertised at putting the ball on the floor and DeRozan has demonstrated his more than willing and able to pass the ball, the reality is that outside of Derrick White, we don't really have a real point guard. Patty has the experience, but like Forbes is ideally situated as a shooter. He often was played next to Manu who would then be the primary playmaker. Thus, without an higher level playmaker, the concept of utilizing more defensive minded players such as Pondexter or Cunningham becomes a non-starter because they give up so much offensively.
2. Positional Redundancy
As mentioned above, we have a lot of shooters, but not really a lot of play making. Bryn Forbes, while he's a great story and I like him, has shown himself to be at best a Gary Neal type player, which, honestly, if Derrick White is hitting a reasonable number of threes (say like 37-38%) I don't think really adds a whole lot while forcing us to give up a lot defensively. Instead of playing Forbes we could start bigger with both Gay and Bertans, sliding DeRozan back to his natural SG position, or slot in defense by going back to starting Cunningham as a poor man's Bruce Bowen, hoping that White and DeRozan's playmaking as well as Aldridge's improved awareness passing out of double-teams would help Cunningham's inability to create offense for himself. Of course that still doesn't resolve the problem of the bench, where we have Mills and Belinelli already, and adding Forbes to that mix may be problematic, especially defensively, as we've seen over the past couple of games. While the sample size is small, Lonnie Walker IV may be the solution to that. We are defensively bad enough that Pop is moving to a zone, and even then, we're still getting lost.
Offensively, while I think they are two of our better players, I have to question the fit between particularly DeMar DeRozan and Derrick White. A lot of times it feels like they are just taking turns, and while they are both good at what they do, I have to wonder if their games don't overlap too much. Tack on the game of Rudy Gay, and this becomes an even bigger question.
3. Leadership
Who is this team looking to in the locker room? While Pop is a great coach, I think at the end of the day they need a leader in the locker room and they might not have that right now. Aldridge and DeRozan both appear to be relatively low-key in their approach with their teammates, and frankly, DeRozan's frustration at the officiating sometimes takes him out of games. Granted, I think he has good reason to be frustrated, but at the same time, it removes him from being a factor late in games at times. Thus, Patty Mills is at all of the captain's meetings. I love Patty's heart and passion, but at some point in time one of the "stars" (Aldridge, Gay, DeRozan) has to step up.
Reasons for Hope
1. The emergence of Derrick White
White has emerged quietly as one of the better play makers and arguably the best perimeter defender (consistently) in a Spurs uniform this season. His shooting is good enough where playing him with Dejounte Murray (who also hopefully develops a shot) will not be an issue. He's becoming quietly a second George Hill, who is a low key, low-maintenance type of player who solidly makes his team better. While there are some offensive question marks with the stars of the Spurs when White is on the floor, we can't deny how much better the Spurs defense looks when he is playing.
2. The tenacity of Davis Bertans
Bertans may never have the size or strength of a Tiago Splitter, but he's demonstrated some of that grit that is akin to Matt Bonner's Chumbawamba Defense. Even when his shot isn't falling, he is working hard at the defensive end to try to make the biggest impact he can on the game. This to me is what sets him apart from the other shooters, perhaps it's a perception thing, some people don't like they're trying (Belinelli) and some people look like they just don't have the tools (Forbes), while Davis has demonstrated both the effort and the tools to be effective defensively.
3. Home cooking
12 of our remaining 20 games are at the AT&T Center, which is good, because the Spurs are 22-7 at home. If that continues to play out, then we should win at least 9 of those 12 and hopefully pick up a couple of road wins to win more than half of those 20 to keep in the playoff picture.
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