We all knew DeRozan would be a major step back from Kawhi Leonard defensively, but we also have to note that he changed the offensive identity of the Spurs as well. At best DeRozan would emulate the type of offense Kawhi would have generated, unfortunately we also learned (especially last year) that Kawhi's offense had grown so much as to far outstrip that of DeMar DeRozan. For all his offense gifts and prowess DeRozan was and is a known final product, whereas Kawhi is now reaching his ceiling which is so much higher. However, that's also not what I wanted to discuss.
Looking at the Spurs now, we are a middling team built around two aging stars in LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan. Seven games into the season, with two losses coming against two extraordinarily talented Los Angeles teams, and a young and hungry (and shorthanded and eminently beatable) Atlanta Hawks team and the wins against beatable teams like the Wizards, Knicks, Warriors (minus Steph Curry and of course no Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant), and a solid win against a refurbished Blazers squad (with a lot of luck to mitigate a late-game meltdown).
While certainly this is no time to panic, we are a respectable 4-2, beating teams that we are supposed beat and we lost to teams that are supposed to be two of the best teams in the league, two legitimate title contenders. Certainly, it feels strange that the Spurs are not even considered playoff locks, but it's reasonable given the talent that we have. I'm not suggesting we panic, but I think it's time we take a good, hard look at what the Spurs have and what direction they want to go.
This season we entered with a lot of optimism. We were getting All-NBA defensive guard Dejounte Murray back from injury, breakout guard Derrick White was now going to get a chance to shine, athletic guard Lonnie Walker IV might get a chance to crack the rotation and show us what he's got. We shored up our wing defense signing DeMarre Carroll and while it hurt losing Davis Bertans for nothing in the Marcus Morris contract debacle, we managed to pick up Trey Lyles, a former lottery pick who has never quite realized his potential. What better place to do that than San Antonio? With an extra year of comfort for DeRozan and Poeltl, tacked onto the corporate knowledge already in place with Marco Belinelli and Patty Mills, in addition the much vaunted physical strides Bryn Forbes had made, things looked rosy. Sure there were questions about DeRozan's contract and potential extension, but all-in-all it looked like a good season for the Spurs even in this loaded Western Conference.
Seven games into the season though, I have some questions that we have to really contemplate. To be fair, I really like the Spurs' future, but player development is always a tricky thing. Am I giddy at the Luka Samanic/Toni Kukoc comparisons? Yes. But at the same time we have to consider what some of our other options are going forward. While landing LaMarcus Aldridge in the 2015 off season was a big win for the Spurs, San Antonio generally hasn't been considered a big free agent destination. Granted, Spurs remained competitive largely due to the draft coups of Tim Duncan (1997), Manu Ginobili (1999), and Tony Parker (2001) and thus haven't needed to attract large free agents for the last nearly two decades, for all the players that say they think San Antonio is a great system and Pop is a great coach, not many want to come here to play. To be fair, this may also be something that the Spurs front office is okay with, not wanting to have to deal with the drama that comes behind a high-profile free agent. Spurs are interested in the "right type" of player, or as Pop might put it players that are "over themselves." So in some sense, this is the first time we have really ventured into unknown territory in the Popovich era, where things are less certain. This is certainly not intended to be a knock on the Spurs' current players, but perhaps it is more of a testament to the greatness of Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker.
Six games in there are several observations that are concerning. Given the last two decades of success in the franchise, it's obvious that the fans and organization all have a very high expectation for the team. We expect to be competitive and contending almost every year. That's a tall order but understandable with the team having not missed the playoffs since the year before Tim Duncan was drafted, netting 5 championships in the meanwhile. These last two seasons, since the retirement of our beloved Big Three, it has not seemed as reasonable or realistic to consider the Spurs a title contender, particularly with the departure of Kawhi Leonard and really seeing last season the talent gap between a player like Leonard and what we got back in DeRozan (again, not a knock on DeRozan, it's just how good Leonard really is).
Here are some observations that I have about our team:
1. Neither DeMar DeRozan nor LaMarcus Aldridge are viable as number 1 options on a competitive team. There's a sense where the Spurs now feel kind of like the Atlanta Hawks circa 2010 running it back year after year with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, both players that I really liked, but couldn't quite carry them over the top. In the playoffs year after year without much hope of getting out of the first or second round. Both DeRozan and Aldridge are great players, and while this season, with the West being much more competitive, Aldridge's need to play himself into a groove is a little concerning, neither has the talent, leadership, or temperament of a number 1 option on a title contending team. They come in, they do their work, and they play hard, but they can only carry a team so far. I think DeRozan understands that he needs to be the main man here, but he can't do it, at least not consistently enough to give the Spurs that sort of edge they would need in the playoffs. Both are great as the second or third star on a good team, but unfortunately, they are asked to shoulder a load that is perhaps a bit too much for them. That being said, I hope they prove me wrong, seven games into this season though, I have not seen that. Both can be the leading scorer on a team, but neither help in terms of being a rallying point that elevates the game of those around them. Neither has sufficient gravity and talent on the offense to generate the easy looks that enable less-talented players to thrive. While arguably Spurs haven't had that sort of player for a while, Aldridge and DeRozan don't seem to fit together with others well enough to create a sort of "greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts" machine that players like Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan were able to do once they were past their primes.
2. While the future of the Spurs may be in the hands of Derrick White and Dejounte Murray, neither is ready to take over as the go-to guy on the team. There is still enough inconsistency that the Spurs need some sort of stabilizing factor to sustain any sort of success. This is of course assuming that the Spurs' primarily still want to remain competitive without mortgaging the franchise's future. Maybe things change once Murray is off the minutes restriction, as he has had flashes that have shown greatness only to be cut short by Pop counting his floor time. I believe both White and Murray can become viable leaders on a competitive NBA team, but they aren't there yet.
3. Rudy Gay should not be anybody's Big 3. Gay has been great for us, but we are maybe 3-5 years too late on expecting Rudy Gay to be one of the cornerstones of a franchise. I love Rudy Gay and what he brings to the table, but he's best suited playing a Robert Horry/Boris Diaw utility role. He'll give you some big games, but we cannot bank on him to average 20+ points per game. If that's what it takes for us to win, we are in trouble.
4. We lack a defensive anchor. Individually, I think we have a lot of plus defenders. Murray and White seem like they are somewhere from above average to elite in terms of defense, Walker has shown flashes of being at least able to use his athleticism to the effectiveness of say Jonathan Simmons, Poeltl has shown to be an effective large body and rim protector, and both new additions Lyles and Carroll have demonstrated strong defensive instincts as has LaMarcus Aldridge. While they may not be great, Forbes, Mills, and even DeRozan have demonstrated a willingness to try and do what they can. I would argue even Marco Belinelli does that (granted what he can do is severely limited). However, despite all this talent, the defense as a unit hasn't seemed to be there. I don't think it's that players aren't trying, it's that we don't have someone that really stabilizes the defense and is able to call out switches and see the oncoming offense from a broader perspective. Perhaps that's why they brought in Tim Duncan as a coach, to help develop that vision in the players, however, so far, that hasn't been the case. The effort has been there, but everyone seems to be focusing so hard on just their individual defensive assignments that when more complicated offenses come our way the defense sort of trips over itself because players aren't as aware of what's going on. While usually this job falls to the bigs (e.g. Aldridge and Poeltl) I'm not here to entirely just knock on them, what I am saying is that this is what made Tim Duncan such a great defender (that never won DPOY) and made the Spurs defense so stingy. That's something we don't have right now.
The biggest concern for me long-term obviously is the first issue. However, what we have to consider before even contemplating solutions is what exactly the Spurs' goals are. It seems that Popovich is not extraordinarily interested in doing a full-scale rebuild and wants to maintain a certain level of competitiveness while develop these younger players. While this might mean shorter leashes for the young guns (particularly Walker) and playing more well-known commodities that fans may not be as happy with (like Belinelli), if that is the case, the solution would be different if we were focusing more on long-term (e.g. the peaks of Murray and White). There are some calling for trading DeRozan, which I'm not opposed to. However, my biggest concern is the actual value of a player like DeRozan (high-usage, non-3 point shooter) is across the league. I frankly am not even sure we would get an All-Star level player in return (if there even is one to be had). Would we be that much better sending DeRozan back to Toronto for a Serge Ibaka or Marc Gasol (I doubt they would include OG in the trade so it'd include maybe a Stanley Johnson or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson)? to Chicago for an Otto Porter? We can label DeRozan a legitimate All-Star but what exactly is the demand for someone with his game? Some out there are pushing for a DeRozan-Hayward swap with Boston, which I wouldn't be opposed to except again, does it make us that much better? What's the incentive for Boston to make such a trade (I suppose we can rationalize the extension of Brown thus creating a logjam at the SF spot enabling DeRozan to shift back to SG)? Unfortunately, our best bet now is simply to wait and see.
3. Rudy Gay should not be anybody's Big 3. Gay has been great for us, but we are maybe 3-5 years too late on expecting Rudy Gay to be one of the cornerstones of a franchise. I love Rudy Gay and what he brings to the table, but he's best suited playing a Robert Horry/Boris Diaw utility role. He'll give you some big games, but we cannot bank on him to average 20+ points per game. If that's what it takes for us to win, we are in trouble.
4. We lack a defensive anchor. Individually, I think we have a lot of plus defenders. Murray and White seem like they are somewhere from above average to elite in terms of defense, Walker has shown flashes of being at least able to use his athleticism to the effectiveness of say Jonathan Simmons, Poeltl has shown to be an effective large body and rim protector, and both new additions Lyles and Carroll have demonstrated strong defensive instincts as has LaMarcus Aldridge. While they may not be great, Forbes, Mills, and even DeRozan have demonstrated a willingness to try and do what they can. I would argue even Marco Belinelli does that (granted what he can do is severely limited). However, despite all this talent, the defense as a unit hasn't seemed to be there. I don't think it's that players aren't trying, it's that we don't have someone that really stabilizes the defense and is able to call out switches and see the oncoming offense from a broader perspective. Perhaps that's why they brought in Tim Duncan as a coach, to help develop that vision in the players, however, so far, that hasn't been the case. The effort has been there, but everyone seems to be focusing so hard on just their individual defensive assignments that when more complicated offenses come our way the defense sort of trips over itself because players aren't as aware of what's going on. While usually this job falls to the bigs (e.g. Aldridge and Poeltl) I'm not here to entirely just knock on them, what I am saying is that this is what made Tim Duncan such a great defender (that never won DPOY) and made the Spurs defense so stingy. That's something we don't have right now.
The biggest concern for me long-term obviously is the first issue. However, what we have to consider before even contemplating solutions is what exactly the Spurs' goals are. It seems that Popovich is not extraordinarily interested in doing a full-scale rebuild and wants to maintain a certain level of competitiveness while develop these younger players. While this might mean shorter leashes for the young guns (particularly Walker) and playing more well-known commodities that fans may not be as happy with (like Belinelli), if that is the case, the solution would be different if we were focusing more on long-term (e.g. the peaks of Murray and White). There are some calling for trading DeRozan, which I'm not opposed to. However, my biggest concern is the actual value of a player like DeRozan (high-usage, non-3 point shooter) is across the league. I frankly am not even sure we would get an All-Star level player in return (if there even is one to be had). Would we be that much better sending DeRozan back to Toronto for a Serge Ibaka or Marc Gasol (I doubt they would include OG in the trade so it'd include maybe a Stanley Johnson or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson)? to Chicago for an Otto Porter? We can label DeRozan a legitimate All-Star but what exactly is the demand for someone with his game? Some out there are pushing for a DeRozan-Hayward swap with Boston, which I wouldn't be opposed to except again, does it make us that much better? What's the incentive for Boston to make such a trade (I suppose we can rationalize the extension of Brown thus creating a logjam at the SF spot enabling DeRozan to shift back to SG)? Unfortunately, our best bet now is simply to wait and see.
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