Unfettered Optimism: Developing James Anderson

I'm actually a little surprised I haven't read a "Mr. Anderson" joke somewhere about this guy yet, but hey, we've had limited exposure to James Anderson at the NBA level, what with his hamstring injury and all.  Anderson has now been dubbed a possible steal in this year's draft for the Spurs, which, to me is a good thing, but really, who is James Anderson?  Since PtR has already beaten me to the punch, let's ask then, who do we want James Anderson to become?  Because you can all look up the college numbers and how his high efficiency game will be effective in the NBA, and despite mislabeling him as the 1985 5th round pick James Anderson, DraftExpress has all the other stuff right.  But for those of you not so inclined to do so, I'll give you the base numbers:

34.1 MPG, 22.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 2.4 TO, 2.2 3PTM, 34.1% 3PT%, 45.7% FG%

Those were his per game metrics.  Not bad right?

25.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.6 three pointers, 1.6 steals, 0.7 blocks, 45.7% field goal percentage, 34.1% three point percentage, 81% free throw percentage with 9 free throws attempted per game on 2.7 turnovers

What're those?  His pace-adjusted per 40 minute metrics.  I'd say he's pretty efficient about how he goes about things.  While he won't be getting 26% of the Spurs possessions, his efficiency leads me to believe that he at least knows how to put the ball in the bucket, and that's fine by me.  So what do we want from James Anderson?  Do we want just three point shooting?  What identity will Anderson find on this team?  Well, let's take a look at some comparisons I drew up (as you all know I love comparing to Spurs championship past):

James Anderson: 6-6, 195 lbs
Player A: 6-7, 185 lbs
Player B: 6-5, 210 lbs
Player C: 6-7, 215 lbs
Player D: 6-8, 218 lbs

	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Player A	3.4	8.2	.420	1.4	3.5	.403	1.0	1.5	.634	0.7	3.2	3.9	1.7	0.8	0.5	0.8	2.4	9.3
Player B	4.4	9.2	.471	1.1	3.0	.374	2.9	3.3	.866	1.0	2.8	3.8	2.5	1.3	0.3	1.7	2.5	12.7
Player C	5.4	13.1	.412	2.1	5.6	.364	1.8	1.9	.918	0.7	3.7	4.4	2.1	0.6	0.3	0.9	1.5	14.6
Player D	5.7	13.1	.435	1.5	4.7	.320	2.2	2.9	.760	1.1	3.5	4.6	2.9	2.0	0.5	2.8	3.2	15.1

Hm... would it be so wrong to at least ask this kind of performance from Anderson, at least in his first year?  Hopefully he'll improve even more.  A lot of people have stated that Anderson is potentially a starting caliber rookie, which leads to even higher expectations.  While I see him primarily being a 3 point specialist, I can definitely see him leading the team in scoring at times when nothing seems to be going right.  So who are these guys?  Well, Player A is Bruce Bowen circa 2005, Player B is Mario Elie circa 1999, Player C is Michael Finley circa 2007, and Player D is Stephen Jackson circa 2003.  Now what if Anderson developed into Finley and Jackson at their best?  I don't know if Anderson has the defensive tenacity and passing ability of Stephen Jackson, but the offensive explosiveness and potentially hot shooting of Michael Finley?  Hey, that's entirely in the realm of possibility.  With such a high ceiling (I'm talking 2000 Dallas Mavericks Michael Finley) a revamped Richard Jefferson and a rested Manu Ginobili, you can't help but wonder how awesome a best case scenario wing situation we might actually have.  Sure, Bruce Bowen is gone and we don't have a replacement, but you can't be entirely disappointed with what we have instead if this works out.  Draft Express has him compared to Marcus Thornton, who had an excellent rookie season, by the metrics, I'd say that James Anderson looks even better.

He's not going to be the second coming of Manu, but hey, he'll still be pretty darn good if he pans out.  I'm hopeful, because you know who had similar stats in college?  Ray Allen.  Yeah, I said it.  In all seriousness though, I can definitely see him becoming a more explosive Finley, which in my books, I like.

Unfettered Optimism: Can Duncan pass the baton to Splitter?

If you haven't seen it already, definitely take the time to check out this awesome video footage of the training session Dwight Howard got with the legendary Hakeem Olajuwon.  It's actually pretty scary to see how well Dwight was hitting some of those shots.  But that's not what I'm here to talk about.  After watching that video I got inspired to look up some YouTube of another great big man of that era, legendary in his own right, of course, who else could I be talking about other than our very own David Robinson.  Now I can go on and on about how awesome the 1998-1999 Spurs were, but that's not what I'm here about either.  After a dismal 1996-1997 season where Robinson was injured, and landing Tim Duncan in the draft, the big story in the 1999 Finals run for the Spurs was about Robinson deferring to Duncan, passing the proverbial torch so to speak.  While the 2007 Finals have the onus of leadership passing to Tony Parker, I still believe that a strong team will be rooted and anchored around a big man.  I don't know that Splitter will become the dominant player that Duncan and Robinson were in their primes, but I also think he can definitely grow into something special for the Spurs.  I know we're definitely in a "win-now" mode, but nonetheless, we also need to think long-term.  Certainly we've conceded that we've moved beyond "put role players around Duncan" front office strategy, so who is up and coming?  Well, our primary options are DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter.  Andrew McNeil has a really good post about Blair and the waning of Duncan's dominance.  I'm going to go the route of Tiago Splitter.

Splitter is 25, certainly older than most typical rookies, but with that we can also note that he's been playing international ball since he was 18, so he's in some senses a 7 year veteran.  Now I know we typically do per 36, but since DraftExpress uses per 40s, I'm going to do that too, for the sake of simplicity.  While Splitter's NBA experience is nil coming into the league at age 25, a lot of his fundamentals will really help and I believe carry over to the NBA.  Pop has already said that he's got work to do offensively, in that he's not somebody that they'll just dump the ball to in the paint and expect something to happen.  At this point, most comparisons have been of a glorified Fabricio Oberto, DraftExpress itself says that he won't become any better than P.J. Brown.  His pace-adjusted per 40 numbers are promising from his last season with Caja Laboral, showing 22.5 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks on 58.3% shooting.  While I understand that almost nobody plays 40 minutes on Pop's team during the regular season, it's promising to see that he has that potential, and if he can improve on that with work from Duncan, then I have really high hopes.  To give you a rough comparison, Duncan himself had a pace adjusted per 40 of 23 points, 13 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.9 blocks on 52.2% shooting.  So certainly we are somewhat leery since Splitter is obviously not the rebounder and shot blocker that Tim Duncan is or was (Duncan's highest per 40 metrics rating at 13.8 rebounds in 2007-2008 and 3.2 blocks in 2004-2005), but we have room to grow.  The fact that he appears to have quicker hands and comes up with the steal more often is also quite nice too.

One quick comparable specimen I think I can draw from is Marc Gasol.  In his last season in Europe on Girona, he averaged 16.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.8 blocks on 65.3% shooting.  His per 40 metrics showed 19.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.2 blocks on 65.3% shooting.  While Splitter only averaged 15.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.8 blocks on 58.3% shooting, the per 40 metrics compare favorably.  That being said, Gasol averaged 11.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks on 53% shooting in his NBA rookie year, improving to 14.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.6 assists on 58.1% shooting the next year.  I particularly like this analog because in his second year Gasol played next to a rediscovered Zach Randolph, who likely took a of the looks in the paint.  Will Gasol (and thereby by comparison Splitter) ever realize his per 40 potential?  Probably not, and Splitter likely won't become the shot blocker that Gasol is.  Nonetheless, he can be a huge difference maker.  As first he gets used to the NBA, but more than that, hopefully as Duncan takes him under his wings and shows him some of the things that have made him so successful, so far as to be called "the closest thing to a guaranteed 2 points" when in the paint. 

With Splitter's basketball IQ and some of Duncan's post know-how, I certainly think he can break his projected ceiling of P.J. Brown (even at his best).  So the question remains, can Splitter polish his overall game and become someone for Duncan to pass the proverbial baton that he got from Robinson.  Certainly, I don't think it's necessarily the same exact baton, as the team leader baton I think is being passed to the likes of Tony Parker, but certainly, the whole defensive/low-post anchor I'd like to see passed to Splitter.  I've said this before and I'll say it again; Duncan needs to become to one of our young bigs what David Robinson was to him.  I think Splitter is that young big.  I wouldn't mind if Blair was that young big too though.  I mean, seriously:

Let's take this "random" comparison

Player A is 6-6 at 252 lbs while Player B is 6-7 at 265 lbs

Their per 36 stats compare thus:

Player	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Player A	2347	6.5	12.0	.545	0.0	0.1	.167	4.5	6.1	.733	4.1	6.7	10.8	2.4	1.5	1.2	3.2	4.6	17.6
Player B	1494	6.6	11.9	.556	0.0	0.0	.000	2.1	3.9	.547	4.8	7.9	12.7	1.6	1.2	0.9	2.7	5.4	15.4

I'm sure many of you have already guessed where I'm going with this...  Player B is none other than our own DeJuan Blair.  Player A is Hall of Famer Charles Barkley in his rookie year.  This wasn't going to be a Blair post, but I had to throw this in here.  I like the comparison.  Barkley is obviously better, but hey, room to grow, it's not as far off as I thought it would be.  ACLs or no I can't help but get excited about this.  Splitter and Blair could be our frontcourt of the future.  I like it.  So while we're chasing that ring, I know we are, I hope that Tim takes the time to really mentor these young guys, he doesn't have to invite them over to his house, but he really does have so much to offer, and hopefully Blair and Splitter really can really soak in everything that this living legend has to offer.

Making the Matchups: Oklahoma City Thunder

There's a lot that people say about this team; they're young, they're up and coming, they just needed some playoff experience and they're contenders... etc...  I believe all of it except the last one.  They have the playoff experience, but they are in no way contenders.  Maybe I'm bitter being a basketball fan in Seattle.  Nonetheless, the Thunder are a team that I've actually seen play live, granted this was a couple years earlier, but still, I can't say I was entirely impressed.  Anyways, how do we matchup against these guys?  I'm going to do this a little differently, and let's hope this works:

Starters:

SPURS	THUNDER
Tony Parker	Russell Westbrook
Manu Ginobili	Thabo Sefolosha
Richard Jefferson	Kevin Durant
Tim Duncan	Jeff Green
Tiago Splitter	Nenad Kristic

Okay, so what the heck do I mean by this?  Well, quickly explained, green means where I think the Spurs have a patented advantage, red is where I think the opposing team has a patented advantage, and yellow where I think is going to be the decisive matchup.  

Anyways, while I think that ultimately in the post season Pop will go with the Manu off the bench thing, if James Anderson proves to be the next coming of Michael Finley, at least, then I can see it going either way (see 2005 and 2007).  I honestly see George Hill ultimately starting to take more and more PG responsibilities over time, but will still platoon time between PG and SG.  Ultimately though, I think this is what the matchups will boil down to.  I was going to say FIBA might give us some insight into how Splitter matches up against Kristic, but, alas, Brazil never played Serbia, of course, if I had really been closely following the FIBA championships I would've already known that.

Anyways, as the Thunder have gained experience through the years, Kevin Durant has been coming onto the scene in force.  Essentially, Thunder are now basically Kevin Durant and co.  Though the young guard Russell Westbrook has stepped up to be the second scoring option with Jeff Green quietly doing the duties of being the "other guy" of what could be dubbed the Thunder "Big 3".  While right now, Durant is by and far the best SF in the Western Conference (sorry Melo), you can't win games, let alone a series with just one guy.  Of course, try as we might, the Spurs will not, cannot, entirely contain Durant.  Generally speaking, the typical homages to tough perimeter defense should be made here, chasing Durant away from his favorite spots, etc...  Especially since Durant favors the one spot that kills Spurs, 20 foot jumpers.  With his length and speed, it's easy for him to get shots off over defenders, as most give him ample space in case he drives.  I think whoever is guarding Durant (probably Jefferson) needs to play physical defense, body him up, trusting that if he gets beat, the bigs will help and hopefully alter the shot.  Westbrook has proven to be something of a pleasant surprise to a lot of Thunder fans, as he was originally brought on as a defensive specialist, so his tenacity will make Parker work for his shots.  However, his inconsistency offensively is why I think the Thunder have been a little shaky here and there, as they rely too heavily on Durant in their offense at times.  Furthermore, Green isn't really a true PF.  He's more of a PF in the mold of Rashard Lewis, which is to say, a tall SF playing PF, only, Jeff Green isn't that tall.  Now I could go on about how Sam Presti should trade Green for a real interior presence, but I'm not, because this blog is about the Spurs.


Overall, I feel that since the Thunder don't have great shot-blocking or great rebounders in general, the Spurs need to go back to the old school game of attacking the paint.  In transition, they can use those quick outlets that they've become so fond of to hit Parker, Manu, and Jefferson, and in half-court, pound the ball inside, the Spurs have the decided size advantage.  So attack the rim, make the Thunder foul the heck out of us.  We don't have to make all of our free throws, but if we make enough by sheer volume of the amount we shoot and get the other team in foul trouble it does two things for us: first it opens up the interior even more, since players become very foul conscious and tend to reserve themselves on defense and secondly, regardless of our FT% if we shoot enough it's going to add up.